The Thursday night game between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles had some of the worst moments in football this season. Daniel Jones blew a sure-fire rushing touchdown as the Turf Monster got him, while both quarterbacks threw horrible interceptions. I had a good night on Thursday, getting four of five props correct. The miss was Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns as he threw two. Coming into the game, he had three in six games, so the call was right, and my luck was bad.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 10-4 as Travis Kelce scored not once, but twice, giving me the bonus point from my lock of the week. With the bonus point, I finished the week with an 11-4 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 38-37 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 7.
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Unfortunately, due to the uncertainty of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Las Vegas Raiders game because of Covid-19, there are not lines for that game.
Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans
Aaron Rodgers Over 286.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Yes, Rodgers is coming off his worst performance of the season and maybe his career. However, are you foolish enough to bet against him? Before last week, Rodgers had thrown for 283 or more yards in three of four games. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up 300 or more passing yards in back-to-back games to Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill. If those two quarterbacks can throw for 300 yards against the Texans, Rodgers should have no problem getting to 287.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)
The last two weeks have been rough for Allen. After throwing just one interception over his first four games, Allen has thrown three in his previous two. However, his passing touchdown numbers haven’t taken a hit. Allen has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, including Week 1 against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Jets have traded away two defensive starters in the last week. They have given up an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this season. However, they have given up two or more in 67 percent of their games, including three last week to Ryan Fitzpatrick. After losing two games in a row, expect the Bills and Allen to come out with a bang this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry Over 22.5 Rushing Attempts (-112)
This bet is like taking candy from a baby. Henry is playing like the league’s best running back right now. He has six touchdowns over his last three games and is coming off a 264 scrimmage yard game against the Texans. While the Steelers have been tough against the run, the Titans know they need to feed Henry to win. In four of five games this season, Henry has at least 22 rushing attempts. The one exception was Week 5 against the Bills, where he had 19, and the game was a blowout. To win this game, the Titans need to keep Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines, and there is no better way to do that than feed Henry.
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
David Njoku to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+300)
This bet is a bit of a long shot as Njoku has only seven targets this season. However, one of his five catches has resulted in a touchdown. Austin Hooper will miss this game after undergoing emergency surgery last night to remove his appendix. With Hooper out of the lineup, Njoku steps into a starting role against an awful defense. The Bengals have given up 14 catches and three touchdowns to tight ends over the last two weeks. For those of you who want a longer shot odds bet, Harrison Bryant to score his first career touchdown is +550 and worth a look.
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
Teddy Bridgewater Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-167)
In Weeks 4 and 5, Bridgewater was playing excellent football. He had 589 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Then last week against the Bears, Bridgewater struggled and failed to score a touchdown. However, Bridgewater should bounce back this week. The Saints are giving up an average of three passing touchdowns per game this season. Furthermore, they have given up three or more passing touchdowns in four straight games. With the Saints have little trouble scoring on the Panthers, expect Bridgewater to throw at least two touchdowns tomorrow as he is chasing points in the second half.
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+150)
The injuries at wide receiver have gotten so bad for Washington that they had to sign Robert Foster off the Packers practice squad this week. Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon are on injured reserve while Isaiah Wright and Antonio Gandy-Golden have are out for this game. Who the hell else is Washington going to throw the ball to besides McLaurin? While he has only found the end zone once this season, McLaurin faces a Cowboys defense that has given up two or more touchdowns to wide receivers in four of their last five games. Expect McLaurin to cash this bet for you before the start of the fourth quarter.
Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons
T.J. Hockenson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
After getting off to a hot start, Hockenson has cooled off the last two games, totaling only 26 receiving yards on four catches. However, he should have a big performance this week. The Falcons have given up at least 41 receiving yards to the tight end position in five of six games this season, including 102 last week to the Vikings. Meanwhile, Hockenson had 50 or more receiving yards in three straight games to start the season. With this game expected to be a shootout, Hockenson should have no trouble going over 38.5 receiving yards. Don’t be surprised if he goes over the total in the first half.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
Everyone knows what Mahomes can do with his arm, but what he does with his legs isn’t talked about enough. Mahomes has rushed for at least 21 yards in five straight games, averaging 33 per game over that span. Meanwhile, the Broncos have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. They have given up an average of 28.4 rushing yards per game this season despite facing some immobile quarterbacks. Furthermore, over their last two games, the Broncos have given up a total of 130 rushing yards to quarterbacks. Expect Mahomes to have his way with the Broncos defense, both in the air and on the ground.
San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots
Cam Newton to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+108)
While Newton has been up and mostly down as a passer this season, he has shown he can still get it done with his legs. In four games this season, Cam has a rushing touchdown in three of them and has scored five times on the ground, including once last week against the Broncos. Meanwhile, the 49ers have struggled to slow down running quarterbacks this season, giving up a rushing touchdown to the position in 40 percent of their games. Expect the Patriots to build their game plan around Cam, and at positive value, this bet is too good to pass up.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers
Hunter Henry to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+120)
After a slow start to the season, Henry got his first touchdown of the year in the Chargers’ last game. He also saw a season-high eight targets in that game and has become a favorite of Justin Herbert‘s. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have had no answer for tight ends this season. They have given up at least one touchdown to the position in four of their last five games. Furthermore, Myles Jack won’t play in this game, giving Henry the advantage over whoever the Jaguars use to try and slow him down.
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Other than Russell Wilson, no quarterback is playing better than Murray right now. Now only has Murray thrown two or more touchdowns in three of his last four games, but he is averaging a rushing touchdown per game this season. Furthermore, Murray has scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game this year. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league and will be without Jamal Adams for this Sunday night showdown. Expect Murray to have a statement game on national television with at least one, if not two, rushing touchdowns.
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-106)
Goff has a history of struggling against the Bears. In their matchup last season, he threw for only 173 yards. Meanwhile, he is coming off his first game this season with under 200 passing yards and his second game in three weeks with under 230 passing yards. Goff has played well against bad defenses, averaging 293 passing yards against the Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, and Washington. Meanwhile, the Bears have held quarterbacks under 255 passing yards in five straight games. Furthermore, the Bears have held quarterbacks to 241 or fewer yards in half their games this season. Don’t be surprised when Goff has another sub 200 passing yard game on Monday night.
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