Thanks to Covid-19, the NFL had to do a lot of schedule shuffling last week, which caused the Thursday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills to be pushed back to Monday night. With no Thursday night game, gamblers are extra excited for the 14 game slate of NFL games this weekend.
In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can also bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 5-7, as Ryan Fitzpatrick came three yards short of going over his rushing total, costing me the bonus point for my lock of the week. Without the bonus point, I finished the week with a 5-8 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 27-33 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 6.
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Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
Will Fuller to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+145)
With DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona, Fuller has stepped up as the Texans’ top wide receiver. He has scored a touchdown in three straight games while averaging almost seven targets per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Titans have struggled to keep wide receivers out of the end zone. They have given up four touchdowns to wide receivers over their last three games. Expect Fuller to find the end zone at least once tomorrow.
Baltimore Ravens vs Philadelphia Eagles
Mark Andrews to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+120)
After a two-game slump, Andrews has turned things around in the Month of October. Over the last two games, Andrews has three touchdowns on 12 targets. Furthermore, despite the slump, Andrews is averaging a touchdown per game. Meanwhile, the Eagles have had no answer for tight ends this season. Despite facing three teams with below-average tight ends, the Eagles have given up five touchdowns to the position this season. To get Andrews to score at plus value is too good to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
Calvin Ridley to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+105)
Ridley has struggled since the first two weeks of the season, averaging only 4.3 catches per game and zero touchdowns. However, he is averaging just under a touchdown per game this season and has a great matchup this week. The Vikings have been awful at slowing down wide receivers. They have given up an average of almost two touchdowns per game this season. Furthermore, they have given up two touchdowns to the wide receiver position in each of their last two games. With Julio Jones back and healthy, expect Ridley to find the end zone for the first time since Week 2.
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Chase Claypool to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+150)
After scoring four total touchdowns last week, Claypool shouldn’t have this good of a payout attached to his name. Star wide receiver Diontae Johnson will miss tomorrow’s game with a back injury, opening up more targets for Claypool. Meanwhile, the Browns have had no answer for slowing down wide receivers. They have given up eight touchdowns to the position this season, including at least two in 60 percent of their games. The Steelers will have no trouble throwing against the Browns, so don’t be surprised if Claypool has a touchdown before the end of the first half.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
Joe Mixon Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Aside from a good Week 4 against an awful Jaguars defense, Mixon has struggled running the ball this season. He has rushed for under 60 yards in three of his last four games despite averaging 20.5 attempts during that span. Now this week, Mixon faces the Colts, who have held opposing running backs to an average of 3.7 yards per carry and 73.2 rushing yards per game. With the Bengals likely chasing points in the second half, expect them to abandon the running game before Mixon can hit the over on this prop.
Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (+122)
Robinson has been a nice surprise for the Jaguars this season. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry despite playing behind an awful offensive line. However, over the last few weeks, Robinson’s role in the passing game has increased. Over his previous three games, Robinson is averaging five receptions per game. Meanwhile, the Lions have struggled to stop running backs this season. They have had no answer, whether it’s on the ground or in the passing game. Furthermore, in the Lions last game, they gave up 10 receptions to the running back position. Look for Robinson to pull in his fourth reception before the start of the fourth quarter.
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers
David Montgomery Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
The Bears offensive line has struggled to create holes for Montgomery this season as he is averaging three yards per carry over his last three games. However, the Bears have used Montgomery more in the passing game this season, as has at least 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled to stop running backs no matter how they touch the ball this season. In the two games, Nick Foles has been the starter, Montgomery is averaging five catches for 30 yards per game. Expect Montgomery to have his third straight game with 30 or more receiving yards.
Washington Football Team vs New York Giants
Antonio Gibson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Washington lacks weapons on offense, but one of the few who have been productive each week is Gibson. Not only does Gibson have three games this season with at least 45 rushing yards, but his role in the passing game has grown this month. In October, Gibson is averaging 53 receiving yards per game. With James Bradberry doing everything in his power to slow down Terry McLaurin, expect Kyle Allen to target Gibson plenty tomorrow.
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Drew Lock Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+184)
After missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, Lock should play tomorrow against the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Patriots will have the services of Stephon Gilmore and Cam Newton, as both are off the Covid-19 reserve list. While Lock only threw for one touchdown in the game he played start to finish this season, the Patriots’ defense isn’t as dominant as the public thinks. They have given up nine passing touchdowns over their last three games, giving up at least two in every game. With the Patriots having no trouble scoring on the Broncos, expect Lock to chase points and throw two touchdowns tomorrow.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Gaskin has been a surprise for the Dolphins this season. After trading for Matt Breida and signing Jordan Howard in the offseason, Gaskin has turned into the Dolphins’ three-down back. Not only is Gaskin averaging 3.9 yards per carry behind an awful offensive line, but he is averaging just under 30 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he has at least 22 receiving yards in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Jets are the worst team in the league and can’t slow down running backs no matter how they touch the ball. Expect the Dolphins to do whatever they want on offense against the Jets and for Gaskin to have 30 or more receiving yards.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Jones Under 97.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-112)
With Davante Adams out of the lineup, Jones averaged 144.3 scrimmage yards per game this season. By comparison, he totaled just 76 in the one game Adams played start to finish. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have been one of the best teams at stopping the run this season, giving up an average of only 42.2 rushing yards per game to running backs. With Adams back, combined with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady‘s likely shootout, expect Jones to have a quiet game.
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Since returning from an offseason foot injury, Samuel has been quiet. He has only five catches despite seeing 11 targets for 54 yards in two games. The 49ers are dealing with poor quarterback play, and the Rams know it. Meanwhile, the Rams have given up a total of 129 receiving yards to wide receivers over the last two weeks. Expect the 49ers to run the ball more than usual in an attempt to keep the Rams’ high-powered offense off the field.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Travis Kelce to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Kelce is the best tight end in the league; there is no argument against that. So far this season, Kelce has a touchdown in three of five games while averaging 9.2 targets per game. He is the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing attack. Meanwhile, the Bills have had no answer for slowing down tight ends. They are giving up an average of one touchdown per game to the position and have given up three touchdowns to tight ends over their last two games. With Tre’Davious White slowing down Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins out this week, Patrick Mahomes will lean on Kelce even more. This prop is my lock of the week.
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Unfortunately, Dak Prescott will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury. Andy Dalton takes over as the starting quarterback, and because of that, the Cowboys should feed Zeke even more now. Despite a poor defense and a banged-up offensive line, Zeke has rushed for 89 or more yards in 60 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have given up 90 rushing yards to running backs in every game this season. With the change at quarterback and a high powered offense on the other side, expect the Cowboys to feed Zeke. He should finish Monday night’s game with a season-high 27 carries for well over 100 rushing yards.
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