On Thursday night, we got an entertaining game between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets. Despite the over/under total closing at 41 points in most spots, the game easily went over the total as the final score was 37-28.
In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can also bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points.
Last week I went 6-9, but Austin Ekeler just missed the over on his rushing total by four yards, costing me the bonus point for my lock of the week. With losing the bonus point, I finished the week with a disappointing 6-10 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 15-17 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 4.
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New Orleans Saint vs Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)
Stafford has thrown for over 1.5 touchdowns in each of his last two games. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up two or more passing touchdowns in every game this season, including three in each of their previous two games. Furthermore, the Saints will be without Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins for tomorrow’s game, so expect Stafford to take advantage.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ronald Jones to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-112)
With Leonard Fournette ruled out of this game with an ankle injury, Jones steps into a featured role tomorrow against the Chargers. Even with Fournette on the field, Jones is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns with two. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are expected to have their way with the Chargers. This will open the opportunity for Jones to have plenty of chances at a rushing touchdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Bengals and Mixon have struggled to get going this season. The team is 0-2-1, and Mixon is averaging just 55 rushing yards per game. He has yet to go over 70 rushing yards in a game this season and failed to go over the half-century mark in his last two games. Furthermore, Mixon has rushed for under 75 yards in 12 of his previous 19 games going back to last season. Taking the under here almost feels like stealing.
Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+275)
Quietly, Cooks leads the team in targets with 18 so far this season. While he has failed to reach the end zone and go over 25 yards receiving just once, he is due for a breakout game this week. The Vikings have been awful against the pass so far this season, giving up five touchdowns to wide receivers. With Deshaun Watson looking to make a statement game, Cooks is a good value at almost 3-1 to score against a young Vikings’ secondary.
Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-112)
If you like watching the quarterback throw the ball, this is the game for you. This game should be a shootout with an over/under of 54.5 points. In the one game so far this season where the Dolphins were in a shootout, Fitzpatrick threw for 328 yards against a good Bills defense. Now he faces the Seahawks, who have given up 1,319 passing yards so far this season. Furthermore, they have given up at least 397 passing yards in every game this season. To make matters worse for the Seahawks, Jamal Adams will miss the game with a groin injury. Expect Fitzpatrick to go over the total midway through the fourth quarter, if not sooner.
Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Dak is one of the most underrated rushing quarterbacks in the league. He has rushed for three touchdowns and 74 yards so far this season. Dak has gone over 18.5 rushing yards in two of the three games, with the exception being Week 2 when he had 18 rushing yards against the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Browns have given up over 18.5 rushing yards to quarterbacks in two of their three games this season. The exception was last week against Dwayne Haskins, and he is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league. Don’t be surprised if Dak hits the over on this bet before halftime.
Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)
While Bridgewater has been solid for the Panthers, completing 74 percent of his passes, he has just two touchdowns this season despite throwing for at least 235 yards in every game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have given up just five passing touchdowns this season. With Bridgewater’s history this season, it would be a surprise if he hit the over on this bet.
Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Jimmy Graham Over 2.5 Receptions (-167)
Graham has looked like the old version of himself recently. This season he had scored three touchdowns and been targeted six times per game. Furthermore, he has gone over 2.5 receptions twice this season, including six last week against the Falcons. With Nick Foles taking over at quarterback midway through the game, Graham saw an uptick in targets and finished last week with a season-high 10 targets. While the Colts have held tight ends under 2.5 receptions in two games this season, Graham is playing far better than any the Colts have faced. Expect Graham to hit the over on this bet before halftime.
Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Football Team
Mark Andrews to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+108)
After a strong Week 1, Andrews has struggled the last two games. However, he saw a season-high eight targets on Monday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. Andrews is due for a bounce back game, and he should have it this week against a banged-up Washington defense. Even before the injuries, Washington had struggled to slow down tight ends. They have given up 17 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns to the position so far this season. Don’t be surprised if Andrews scores twice tomorrow.
New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Darrell Henderson Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Cam Akers will be out again this week with a rib injury, while Malcolm Brown averaged just 2.7 yards per carry on his seven attempts last week. All that adds up to a big game for Henderson this week. Over his previous two games, Henderson is averaging 97.5 rushing yards per game and has rushed for at least 81 yards in both games. Meanwhile, the Giants have given up at least 62 rushing yards in every game this season while giving up an average of 93.3 per game. This bet is my lock of the week as Henderson should go over this total before the start of the fourth quarter.
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-143)
While the Patriots have a tough defense, Kelce is the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing attack. He has 27 targets so far this season and has at least six receptions in every game. Furthermore, Kelce went over 5.5 receptions in 10 of his 16 regular games last season, including seven in a Week 14 matchup with the Patriots. Unless this game turns into a blowout quickly, expect Kelce to have his fourth straight game with over 5.5 receptions.
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
Devin Singletary Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Last week Zack Moss missed the game with a toe injury and his questionable to play tomorrow. With him out of the lineup, Singletary had a nice game with 121 scrimmage yards. However, even if Moss plays, Singletary should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop. Moss doesn’t offer much in the passing game, and Singletary has 11 receptions so far this season. More importantly, Singletary has at least 20 receiving yards in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders are the worst team in the league at slowing down running backs, meaning Singletary could easily hit the over on this bet before halftime.
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Kittle has missed the last two games with a knee injury but was off the injury report this week and will be 100 percent for the game Sunday night. Yet, somehow the best player on the field is even odds to score a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled to slow down tight ends this season, giving up four touchdowns to the position. While both teams are banged-up, expect Nick Mullens to look Kittle’s way early and often. It should surprise no one if Kittle scores twice against an overrated Eagles defense.
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Robert Tonyan to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Much like the Eagles, the Falcons have been awful at slowing down opposing tight ends. They gave up two touchdowns to Graham last week and have given up four to the position so far this season. Meanwhile, Tonyan has become a critical part of the passing attack for the Packers. Over the last two weeks, Tonyan has been targeted eight times and scored twice. Furthermore, Allen Lazard will miss the game due to a core muscle injury, opening up more red zone work for Tonyan. At 2-1 odds, Tonyan is the best value play to score Monday night.
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