Here we are! We made it to through the 2020 NFL regular season without a game canceled because of Covid-19. Tomorrow, we wrap up the season, with 16 games in a roughly 10-hour window. With every NFL game this week on tomorrow, gamblers have plenty of opportunities to make some money and start the new year with a bang!
Last week, I bounced back in a massive way, going 10-4 on my 14 prop bets. I was two bad beats away from going 12-2 as Justin Herbert fell one yard short of going over his passing total, while Jalen Hurts fell one rushing attempt short of going over his rushing total. However, that’s how gambling goes sometimes. The good news for me, on Sunday night, Davante Adams not only scored once but three times, easily securing me the bonus point for the Lock of the Week. With the bonus point, I finished Week 16 with an 11-4 record (73 percent). Without further ado, I take my 99-106 record for the season (48.3 percent) and dive into the best prop bets for Week 17.
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Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Irv Smith Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
In a meaningless Week 17 game for both teams, the Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook and Kyle Rudolph for this game. Over the last three weeks, Smith is averaging 4.3 receptions for 51 receiving yards and a touchdown per game. Meanwhile, the Lions have struggled to slow down tight ends recently, giving up five or more receptions to the position in four straight games. Furthermore, over the last two weeks, tight ends have averaged 93.5 receiving yards per game against the Lions. Smith has 37 or more receiving yards in each of his past three games and should have no trouble making it four in a row tomorrow.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Calvin Ridley Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With Julio Jones out of the lineup once again this week, Ridley is in line for another monster game. This season, Ridley is averaging 94.4 receiving yards per game. However, over his last four games, Ridley is averaging 131.3 receiving yards per game, recording at least 105 each week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 171.1 receiving yards per game to the position since Week 1. Two weeks ago, Ridley had a season-high 10 receptions for 163 receiving yards against the Buccaneers. He should have no trouble going over 100 receiving yards again against them. This prop bet is my lock of the week.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Cam Newton to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+135)
Newton has struggled to throw the ball this season, throwing for under 120 yards in four of his last five games. However, he has been a force on the ground, scoring 12 touchdowns this season. He has scored two or more rushing touchdowns four times this season, including against the Jets in Week 9. With Julian Edelman and Damien Harris out for this game, the Patriots’ offense will fall on Newton’s legs. Don’t be surprised to see Newton break his own NFL rushing record and score two rushing touchdowns tomorrow.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
Mike Gesicki to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+130)
Over his last four games, Gesicki has become a focal point of the Dolphins’ passing attack. During that span, Gesicki is averaging five receptions per game and has four of his six touchdowns this season. More importantly, Gesicki has five or more targets in six straight games, averaging eight per game over his last three. Meanwhile, the Bills have struggled against tight ends this season, giving up eight touchdowns to the position. In their Week 2 matchup, Gesicki had eight receptions for a season-high 130 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Don’t be surprised if he has a similar game to close out the regular season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-175)
The Steelers are sitting Ben Roethlisberger, suggesting the Browns should have no trouble winning this game. However, after losing to the Jets last week, they can’t take this game for granted. Chubb has been the best player on offense this season, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. He has scored at least one rushing touchdown in nine of those games, including five straight. Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone lately, giving up five rushing touchdowns to the position over their last five games. If the Browns want to make the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years, they need to win this game, and the best way to do that is by feeding Chubb.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Daniel Jones Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-111)
The 2020 NFL season hasn’t gone the way Jones or the Giants had hoped. However, with a win and a Washington loss, the Giants make the playoffs at 6-10. Jones has thrown only nine touchdowns this season and only has one since Week 9. However, he is averaging 208.8 passing yards per game, throwing for 210 or more in 62 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up 235.1 passing yards per game, and in their Week 5 matchup against the Giants, they gave up 222 passing yards to Jones. In a win or go home situation tomorrow, don’t be surprised if Jones has his best game of the season.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After a couple of down weeks, Andrews has been unstoppable over his last five games. During that span, Andrews has at least five receptions and 60 receiving yards in every contest. Furthermore, Andrews is averaging 51.9 receiving yards per game this season and 75.4 per game over his last five games. Meanwhile, the Bengals have struggled slowing down tight ends this season, giving up an average of 63.9 receiving yards per game to the position. Over their last five games, tight ends have record 90 or more receiving yards in three of them, and tomorrow, Andrews will make it four of the past six.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor Over 78.5 Rushing (-112)
Over his last five games, Taylor is averaging 97.6 rushing yards per game, recording at least 74 in every game. Taylor has 16 or more rushing attempts in four of those five games and has taken over as the lead back in Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been awful at stopping the run this season, giving up 100 or more rushing yards to running backs in 67 percent of their games. Furthermore, the Jaguars have given up an average of 149.2 rushing yards per game to running backs over the last six weeks. The Colts will make the playoffs with a win and a little help, so expect them to feed their best player against an awful Jaguars run defense.
Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
Derrick Henry Over 117.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Last week against the Packers, Henry had 98 rushing yards despite the Titans having to abandon the running back in the second half. It marked only the third time Henry failed to rush for over 100 yards since Week 5. However, Henry is averaging 118.5 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for over 100 yards in 67 percent of his game this season. Meanwhile, the Texans have been awful at stopping the run this season, giving up 139.1 rushing yards per game to running backs. They have twice as many games giving up 160 rushing yards to running backs (six) than games giving up under 105 (three). Furthermore, Henry had 212 rushing yards against the Texans earlier this and could easily do it again this week.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Higbee Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
In a must-win game, the Rams will be without Jared Goff as John Wolford will make his first career start. To make matters worse, the Rams will be without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Young quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight ends, and with Robert Woods facing Patrick Peterson, Higbee is in line for a big game. Over the last four weeks, Higbee is averaging 39.8 receiving yards per game, recording at least 24 in each game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have given up an average of 73 receiving yards per game to tight ends over the last four weeks. With Wolford making his first career start tomorrow, don’t be surprised if Sean McVay draws up several screen passes for Higbee.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Taysom Hill to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+230)
Last week, Alvin Kamara tied an NFL record with six rushing touchdowns against the Vikings on Christmas. Unfortunately, he tested positive for Covid-19 and will miss tomorrow’s game against the Panthers. Originally, this prop bet was for Latavius Murray to score an anytime touchdown but this morning reports came out that the entire running back room will miss this game because of Covid-19 protocols. With all their running backs and Michael Thomas out for this game, expect Hill to get plenty of touches. Thanks to his role in both the ground and in the passing game, Hill will have plenty of opportunities to score tomorrow. At some point during the game, the Saints may sit Drew Brees, opening up every more opportunity for Hill.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-160)
At this point, betting this is borderline stealing. Last week, in the snow, Adams had three touchdowns, catching one on every 3.7 receptions. He now has 17 touchdowns in 13 games this season, scoring at least one in 10 of those games. Furthermore, Adams has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Bears have been unable to slow down wide receivers recently. Over their last seven games, the Bears have given up 11 touchdowns to wide receivers. Adams had a touchdown in the Week 12 matchup against the Bears and could easily score the first touchdown of the game tomorrow.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Darrell Williams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+130)
The Chiefs have the top seed in the AFC Playoffs locked up and won’t play several starters tomorrow. Not only will Patrick Mahomes sit, but Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins will miss the game. With CEH out last week, Williams out-snapped Le’Veon Bell 47-20. Furthermore, Bell is questionable with a knee injury and may see limited snaps if he is active. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up eight rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last 10 games. With so many weapons out for the Chiefs this week, Williams should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Jeff Wilson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
With Raheem Mostert on injured reserve, Wilson was the featured back last week against the Cardinals. He had his best game of the season with 22 rushing attempts for 183 rushing yards. It was the second time this season Wilson went 100 rushing yards this season. The other time was in Week 7 when he was in a featured role. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled to stop the run lately, giving up just under 100 rushing yards per game to running backs over the last four weeks. With half of their usual starting offense out for this game, Wilson should see enough workload to hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Darren Waller Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Waller has been the best tight end not named Kelce this season, averaging 71.9 receiving yards per game. However, Waller has been unstoppable over the last four weeks, averaging 134.3 receiving yards per game, recording at least 75 in every week. Meanwhile, the Broncos have struggled to slow down tight ends over the last four weeks, giving up an average of 75.5 receiving yards per game to the position. Waller is the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack and should have no trouble finishing this game with 75 or more receiving yards for the fifth straight week.
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Hurts has completed only 54.9 percent of his passes. However, he has made an impact on the ground, averaging just under 13 rushing attempts per game as the starter. During those three games, Hurts has rushed for at least 63 in every contest, averaging 79.3 per game. Furthermore, the Eagles will be without Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson, and others tomorrow night. With so many weapons out, expect the Eagles to build their gameplan around Hurts’ rushing ability.
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