The 2020 NFL season is starting to wind down. However, we still have plenty of games left, and after that, we have the entire postseason to bet on. Unfortunately, I’ve been on a losing streak the last few weeks. Hopefully, I can turn this losing streak into a big profit for everyone this week.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 4-10 as Josh Allen threw only one touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers, costing me the bonus point for my lock of the week. With the penalty for getting the lock of the week wrong, I finished the week with a 4-11 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 69-76 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 13.
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Unfortunately, there were no odds or prop bets available for the Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens game at the time of writing. However, be on the lookout for my Fave Five Prop Bets article for this game Tuesday morning.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Taysom Hill to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-143)
In his two games as the starting quarterback, Hill is averaging under 20 pass attempts per game to go along with 10 rushing attempts. He has four rushing touchdowns in those two games. When the Saints faced the Falcons in Hill’s first career start at quarterback, he had 10 rushing attempts for 49 yards and two touchdowns. In total, Hill has six touchdowns this season and 15 for his career. With the offensive built around him these last two weeks, Hill should have no problem rushing for a touchdown this week.
Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry Over 100.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Henry has been a monster lately, rushing for over 100 yards in three straight games. He has rushed for 100 or more yards in seven of his 11 games this season, averaging 114 per game. Meanwhile, the Browns have given up 90 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games, including 128 rushing yards to James Robinson last week. Expect Henry to have another big performance, rushing for at least 110 yards.
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
T.J. Hockenson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After a disappointing rookie season, Hockenson has broken out this year, averaging 48 receiving yards per game. However, over the last two weeks, without Kenny Golladay, Hockenson is averaging 83 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, the Bears have struggled to slow down tight ends, giving up at least 50 receiving yards in all but three games this season. Furthermore, over their last five games, they are giving up an average of 69 receiving yards per game to tight ends, giving up at least 50 in every game. Expect Hockenson to be the focal point of the Lions’ passing attack tomorrow and hit the over on this prop by halftime.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
Brandon Allen Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-143)
In his first start of the season last week, Allen threw for only 136 passing yards on 20 attempts against a struggling Giants’ secondary. Tomorrow he faces a Dolphins’ secondary that has shutdown passers this season, giving up 260 passing yards per game this season. Furthermore, they have held quarterbacks to under 200 passing yards in just under half their games season, including two of their last three. Expect another struggling performance out of Allen tomorrow.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Cousins has played his best football of the season over his last six games. He has thrown at least two touchdowns passing in five of them, throwing three in four of those games. Furthermore, he has done a good job protecting the ball, throwing only one interception since the Vikings’ Week 7 bye. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been awful defending the pass this season, giving up over two passing touchdowns per game. They have given up at least two passing touchdowns in five straight games. Expect Cousins to make it six games in a row this week.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Michael Pittman Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last week Pittman let us down, catching only two passes for 28 yards against the Titans. However, I’m going to double down and bet it again. Pittman had at least 56 receiving yards in his three previous games and had a career-high nine targets last week against the Titans. Meanwhile, the Texans have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 166 receiving yards per game to the position. Pittman has taken over as Philip Rivers‘ go-to target, and expect him to have a career game tomorrow against the Texans that just lost Bradley Roby for the rest of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets
Frank Gore Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
With La’Mical Perine on injured reserve, Gore has taken over as the featured back in New York. Last week he had a season-high 74 rushing yards on 18 attempts. It was the second straight game, and the fifth time this season Gore had 57 or more rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders are giving up an average of 88 rushing yards per game to running backs. They have given up at least 59 rushing yards in all but two games this season, including six straight, including 120 to Brian Hill and Ito Smith last week. Don’t be surprised if Gore has his first game with 85 or more rushing yards this season tomorrow.
New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks
Colt McCoy Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Reports are that Daniel Jones will not play tomorrow against the Seahawks. With him out of the lineup, McCoy will get his first start of the season. In his limited snaps last week, McCoy completed six of his 10 pass attempts for 31 yards. However, with a full week to prepare, McCoy should be much better this week. He takes on a Seahawks’ secondary that has given up at least 220 passing yards in every game this season. They are giving up an average of 346 passing yards per game, and while McCoy won’t get near that total, he should have no trouble going over 230 passing yards in this game.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins Under 6.5 Receptions (-174)
After starting the season on fire, Hopkins has cooled off since the Cardinals’ bye week. Over his last four games, Hopkins has been held under six receptions in three of them. Furthermore, last week against Stephon Gilmore, Hopkins had only five receptions. This week he faces Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. They have slowed down wide receivers this season, holding them to an average of 12.5 receptions per game. Furthermore, Ramsey has made the top wide receivers disappear this season, and expect him to keep Hopkins under seven receptions tomorrow.
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Cam Newton Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Last week against the Cardinals, Newton threw for a season-low 84 yards. It marked the seventh time out of 10 games this season where Cam threw for under 175 passing yards. In the other three games, he faced awful defenses. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense is starting to get healthy and play better since their bye week. Over their last six games, they have given up 205 or fewer passing yards in all but one game, holding quarterbacks to an average of 185 passing yards per game during that span. Expect another quiet game from Cam tomorrow. This prop is my lock of the week.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)
When Adams has been on the field this season, he has been unstoppable. Adams is averaging 8.2 receptions for 101 receiving yards per game. More impressive is Adams is averaging over one touchdown per game, scoring at least once in all but two games this season, including six straight. Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up eight touchdowns to wide receivers this season. No one has had any success keeping Adams out of the end zone this season and after D.K. Metcalf made Darius Slay look helpless last week, expect Adams to have a monster game tomorrow.
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
I’ll be the first to admit I don’t love this prop as Mahomes can go off at a moment’s notice. However, Mahomes has thrown two or fewer passing touchdowns in over half his games this season, including a season-low one passing touchdown in the Chiefs’ Week 7 matchup with the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Broncos have held quarterbacks to an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. Furthermore, they have held quarterbacks under three passing touchdowns in all but three games this season.
Washington Football Team vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Antonio Gibson Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
As the season has progressed, Gibson has become a bigger part of the Washington offense. After rushing 12 or more times only twice in his first six games this season, Gibson has at least 13 rushing attempts in four of his last five games. Furthermore, Gibson has been on fire the last two weeks, rushing 36 times for 209 yards and four touchdowns. While the Steelers have held running backs to four yards per attempt this season, Washington’s offense runs through Gibson. Expect him to have his fourth straight game with at least 13 rushing attempts.
Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)
This prop burned me last week, but I’m going to double down and bet it again. Allen is averaging two passing touchdowns per game, throwing at least two in all but three games this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers have given up an average of 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season, including nine over their last four games. With Stefon Diggs by his side, Allen should have his ninth game this season with two or more passing touchdowns against the 49ers.
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