Football is back! While the Thursday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans wasn’t the most exciting game of all time, it still provided gamblers with plenty of opportunities to make some money. In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will be providing my favorite prop bet from each game that weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I predict correctly. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get two points for being correct, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, let’s dive into the best prop bets for Week 1.
All bets and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Over 28.5 Rushing Yards for Josh Allen (-112)
We all know Allen isn’t the more accurate quarterback in the league, but he is one of the better runners. Last season, Allen averaged 6.8 rushing attempts and 31.9 yards per game. However, Allen rushed for over 28.5 yards in 50 percent of his games last season, including for 38 yards in Week 1 against the Jets to kick off the 2019 season. With the Jets focused on stopping the newly acquired Stefon Diggs, look for Allen to take off and run when the holes open up.
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
Over 89.5 Receiving Yards for Davante Adams (-112)
Outside of Adams, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have many weapons he trusts. Therefore, expect Adams to see plenty of targets from Rodgers. Last season, Adams had over 89.5 receiving yards in six of the 12 games he played. However, two of those games came against the Vikings, where he had 106 and 116 receiving yards. In the offseason, the Vikings lost their top three cornerbacks from last season. They are replaced by two rookies and Mike Hughes, who has played in 20 career games. Expect Adams to have his way with the Vikings’ young secondary and go over 89.5 receiving yards by the end of the third quarter.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Football Team
Over 23.5 Team Points for the Eagles (-112)
While the Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffery for this game, the rookie Jalen Reagor and, more importantly, DeSean Jackson will play. Last season in two games against Washington, the Eagles scored 32 and 37 points. Those two games were two of their four highest-scoring games of last season. Furthermore, despite dealing with a platoon of injuries last season, the Eagles still managed to average 24 points per game. The Washington front four has improved with the addition of Chase Young, but the secondary has several holes in it. Expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles’ offense to take advantage and possibly hit the over before halftime.
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Over 44.5 Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews (-137)
Entering his second season as Lamar Jackson‘s go-to guy, Andrews is in line for another monster season. Last year, despite only getting 98 targets, Andrews finished the year with over 850 receiving yards. Furthermore, he had 10 games last season with over 44.5 receiving yards, including 93 yards against the Browns in Week 16. Furthermore, the Browns’ defense will be without three key members of their defense, including linebacker Mack Wilson and cornerbacks Greedy Williams. Look for Andrews to hit the over on this bet by the end of the third quarter, if not sooner.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
*Lock of the Week* Over 17.5 Rushing Yards for Gardner Minshew (-112)
Minshew Mania is back again for the 2020 season. However, the Jaguars are heavy favorites to have the worst record in the league this season, and it begins this week against the Colts. While the game should be an ugly one for Jaguar fans, gamblers need to keep an eye on Minshew. Last season, he finished fifth among quarterbacks with 344 rushing yards. Furthermore, he had nine games with over 17.5 rushing yards last season. With the Jaguars likely chasing points in the second half, the Colts’ defense will protect against the big play downfield, opening up running lanes for Minshew. This is my lock of the week.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Carolina Panthers
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards for Christian McCaffrey (-112)
Last season, McCaffrey became just the third running back in NFL history to have over 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. While he may not repeat that feat, he should have no problem hitting the over on this prop bet. Last season, CMC had 10 games with over 52.5 receiving yards, including seven straight games to close out the season. Furthermore, McCaffrey had over 80 receiving yards in six games last season. Given that the Panthers’ offense runs through CMC, combined with the Raiders under impressive defense, McCaffrey should hit the over on this prop bet before the end of the third quarter.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Over 5.5 Receptions for Allen Robinson (+110)
Despite Mitchell Trubisky being named the starter for Week 1, betters should take the over on this prop bet. Last season, with Trubisky the starter for most of the year, Robinson had 154 targets, good for third-best in the league. Furthermore, he had 11 games last season with over 5.5 receptions, including 14 total in the two games against the Lions. However, Darius Slay is now a member of the Eagles, while first-round rookie Jeffrey Okudah is questionable to play with a hamstring injury. Even if he does play, Robinson should have his way with the rookie and go over this total at some point in the third quarter, if not sooner.
Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons
Over 2.5 Touchdowns Scored in the First Half (-129)
Even with the addition of Jamal Adams, neither defense in this game is all that good. With that in mind, both teams should have no trouble scoring in this game. The over/under for the game is 49 points, second highest of Week 1, in part because both teams have two excellent wide receivers and a potential future Hall of Fame quarterback on offense. With an expected high total for this game combined with all the firepower both offenses have, it should be no problem at all for the two teams to combine for three touchdowns in the first half.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
Over 17.5 Points Scored by the Miami Dolphins (+112)
Last season, the Dolphins got off to a horrible start as they scored zero points against the Patriots in Week 2. However, a lot has changed since then. In the offseason, the Dolphins added several weapons to their offense, while the Patriots lost half of their starting defense either to free agency or Covid-19 opt-outs. Furthermore, Tom Brady is now in Tampa Bay, and the Dolphins’ offense got rolling to close out last season. The Dolphins scored 20 or more points in each of their final seven games last season, including 27 against the Patriots in a Week 17 win. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, this team surprised a lot of people last season, and they very well could do it again Week 1.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Under 3.5 Touchdowns Scored in the Game (+195)
Joe Burrow will play in his first NFL game tomorrow, and it likely won’t be one he wants to remember. While the Chargers won’t have Derwin James, they still have several stars defense. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram should have their way against an awful Bengals’ offensive line. Even when Burrow isn’t being sacked, Casey Hayward and Desmond King can create turnovers. On the other side of the field, the Chargers’ offense lacks weapons. Mike Williams will likely miss the game, while Keenan Allen tries to break free from an improved Bengals secondary. Expect this game to have plenty of punts and drives stall in the red zone. Both teams combined might struggle to score three total touchdowns, let alone four.
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Over 28.5 Rushing Yards for Kyler Murray (-112)
In the offseason, the Cardinals added DeAndre Hopkins and are expected to be a pass heavy offense this season. However, that doesn’t mean Murray won’t run as much as he did last season. In fact, the addition of Hopkins may open up more running lanes for Murray as they focus on stopping the star wide receiver. Last season, Murray had eight games with over 28.5 rushing yards, including both games against the 49ers, where he rushed for 34 and 67 yards in those games. With the 49ers getting pressure on Murray, expect him to use his athleticism to escape the pocket and take off running. He should hit the over by the end of the third quarter, if not sooner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
Rob Gronkowski to Score a Touchdown (+160)
Mike Evans isn’t expected to play because of a hamstring injury. With him out of the lineup, the Saints will do everything in their power to take Chris Godwin out of the game. With no preseason, a limited training camp, and his one healthy star wide receiver facing a double team on most snaps, Brady will turn to who he knows and trusts the most, Gronkowski. In his career, Gronk has caught 79 touchdowns from Brady, and given their history together, the payout on this bet is way too good to pass up. For those who are feeling extra bold, Gronk to score twice is priced at +950.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams
Under 68.5 Receiving Yards for Amari Cooper (-118)
Even after signing Cooper to a new five-year contract in the offseason, the Cowboys re-signed Blake Jarwin and spent their first-round pick on CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup had similar per game numbers as Cooper last season. Meanwhile, Cooper has a history of disappearing in big games. Furthermore, in their matchup in Week 15 last season, Rams’ shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey held Cooper to one catch for 19 yards. With Ramsey expected to shadow Cooper again Sunday night, combined with the plethora of other weapons for Dak Prescott to target, don’t expect Cooper to get anywhere near 68.5 receiving yards.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants
Under 2.5 Touchdowns Scored for the Giants in the Game (-195)
Last season, the Steelers gave up just 18.9 points per game, the fifth-fewest in the league. Furthermore, after they traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers held their opponents to under 21 points in 9 of their 14 games with Fitzpatrick (64.3 percent). Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense struggled to score at times last season but didn’t add any weapons in the offseason. With T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree taking advantage of an awful Giants’ offensive line, expect the Steelers to force the Giants to punt early and often. If the Giants score two touchdowns, that come as a surprise to most people.
Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos
Over 10.5 points Scored in the First Half for the Titans (+114)
Had you looked at this prop bet last week, you might feel differently about it. However, star pass rusher, Von Miller, is out for the season. Meanwhile, Bradley Chubb is coming off a torn ACL injury and likely will be on a snap count for Monday night. With Chris Harris Jr., now a member of the Broncos, the secondary lacks its veteran leader. Meanwhile, the Titans are one of the best teams at running the ball and controlling tempo. With the Broncos having a big hole at linebacker, combined with a limited pass rush, the Titans should have no problem scoring over 10.5 points in the first half Monday night.
Check us out on our socials:
Twitter: @PTSTNews and @TalkPrimeTime
Facebook Page: Prime Time Sports Talk
Join our Facebook Group: Prime Time Sports Talk
Instagram: @ptsportstalk
Follow Mike Fanelli on Twitter @Mike_NFL2
Main Image Credit:
Embed from Getty Images
One Response