Oh boy. In a battle for the second seed in the AFC playoff picture, the 6-3 Texans come to Baltimore to battle with the red-hot 7-2 Ravens. Sadly, this is a game that will be slated to a 1:00 p.m. EST kickoff, as the Texans and Ravens have been two of the best teams in the season. Both teams feature electric offenses spearheaded by MVP candidates at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. The winner will get a huge advantage in the race for a playoff bye week, and the loser will have to fend off Kansas City.
All-time, the Ravens are 8-2 against the Texans, including a perfect 5-0 at home. However, the Texans and Ravens have split their last four meetings with both teams sweeping the games played at home. The teams last played in 2017 when the Ravens knocked off the Deshaun Watson-less Texans. 23-16.
Quarterback Battle:
As a whole, Watson versus Jackson is the battle for the MVP runner-up, kudos to Russell Wilson. Watson is the better passer, but Jackson is no slouch as he nearly matches Watson in per throw metrics such as touchdown percentage, interception percentage, yards per attempt, and adjusted yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks are in the top 10 in touchdowns, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and passer rating on the season. Both quarterbacks will likely have productive days throwing (and running) the football.
Running the Ball:
The quarterbacks are generally regarded as two of the top three running quarterbacks (alongside Josh Allen), and both have been dangerous on the ground for the season. Jackson’s escapades as a runner have been well-documented as he has averaged 87 rushing yards per game over the last eight games. Jackson has added a rushing score in each of the last four games, all resulting in Baltimore victories. Watson is not as much of a running quarterback as Jackson is, but he has gotten to 30 yards rushing six times this season, including each of the last five weeks. Watson has added five rushing touchdowns, but he has had zero since Week 6.
Both teams have an effective pair of backs as Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson oppose Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Hyde and Ingram have been the clear bell-cow backs, but Johnson and Edwards will carry the rock a handful of times, so they deserve mention. Hyde ranks 10th in rushing yards per game, slightly ahead of 11th-placed Lamar Jackson and 12th-placed Ingram. Jackson, Ingram, and Hyde rank in the top 15 in terms of yards per carry with Jackson scorching the NFL at 6.6. Both teams should have solid days running the ball.
Pass catchers:
DeAndre Hopkins puts the Texans squarely out in front as the 2018 All-Pro is on pace for a 121-catch, 1,182-yard, and seven touchdown campaign. He has never scored against the Ravens, but he has averaged six catches and 74 receiving yards a game. The second-best receiver in Houston, Will Fuller V, has had nagging injuries throughout the season, so he is not a certainty to play. If he does play, he would be an advantageous deep threat that could torch the back end of the Ravens’ secondary.
Baltimore has subscribed to a more subtle approach. While Mark Andrews leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, the work of Marquise Brown, Nick Boyle, Willie Snead, and Hayden Hurst cannot go unnoticed. In particular, Brown has been a weapon with the ball in his hands, averaging over 16 yards per catch. The Ravens have two “go-to” targets, but Jackson does not discriminate and is willing to find any of his tight ends at any time.
In the Trenches:
The Texans’ offensive line was noted as one of the worst in the NFL leading up to the season, but the Texans traded for Laremy Tunsil, setting them up with one of the better lines in the NFL. Tunsil has been a rock for the Texans to pivot off, and it has dramatically decreased sack totals taken by Deshaun Watson. The Texans are effective in both pass protection and run blocking, and they are a force to be reckoned with by a depleted Baltimore front. Michael Pierce, Baltimore’s star run-stopper, was hampered with an injury against Cincinnati, and he will likely not be 100 percent against the Texans.
The Ravens’ offensive line has been one of the best in the NFL. Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda have been playing at Pro Bowl levels, and the patchwork of other linemen have been phenomenal in the run game and quality in pass protection. The elevated play of the offensive line is a major reason why the Ravens rank first in yards per rush, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, percentage of drives ending in points, time of possession per drive, plays per drive, and points per drive. The offensive line has been a bastion of success for Baltimore. In a similar situation to the Ravens’ defensive line, the Texans have been hit with injuries on the defensive front. All-world defensive lineman J.J. Watt is out for the season, and he has been sorely missed. The Texans have been stout in the run defense department, but they have been aided by a league-low in carries allowed. No team has rushed for 100 yards against the Texans since Week 2. The Ravens will likely break 100 yards based on volume alone, but the Texans should keep the Ravens from reaching 200 yards for the fifth time on the season.
Secondary:
The Ravens are better here. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters have been fantastic over the last few weeks with both players adding a pair of defensive touchdowns to their generally high levels of play. Earl Thomas may not be on his Seattle level, but he has played well. Brandon Carr, Jimmy Smith, and Chuck Clark have also played well, especially of late.
Recent acquisition Gareon Conley has played at a high level for the Texans, especially against Jacksonville in Week 9. Tashaun Gipson and Justin Reid add to the trio of effective yet not perfect defensive backs. All three are capable of making plays, and they should have a straightforward task in slowing down the minimal vertical passing game from Baltimore.
Verdict:
The Texans will have the two best players in the game on Sunday, but the Ravens have an unmatched depth of talent across the board. This game should be one of the best games of the entire season as Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson exchange licks and the running games grind against each other. I anticipate a drive coming down to the final seconds with a clutch defensive play by Marlon Humphrey to halt a Watson game-winning drive.
Prediction
Winner: Ravens
Spread: Ravens (-4)
Score: Ravens 31, Texans 26
Over/Under: OVER 52
