Before he was this year’s batting champion, the likely American League Most Valuable Player, or even stole all of us a taco in game one of the World Series, Mookie Betts was a fifth-round pick in 2011, destined to be a second baseman in the Boston Red Sox developmental system.
Alex Cora and the Red Sox are faced with some hard decisions regarding their lineup under National League rules. As they are without the benefit of the designated hitter, fellow MVP candidate J.D. Martinez must hit the field or be relegated to a much less valuable pinch-hitting role.
This has many around baseball wondering if Betts background as an infielder, and overall incredible athleticism could land him at second base when the World Series shifts to Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles. It would be the next masterstroke of the Midas’ touch Cora has shown in his first October as a manager, if they dare try it.
Betts was originally called up as a second baseman in 2014, committing three errors there in a total of 122 innings. Hitting .291/.368 as a rookie forced his bat into the lineup for fifty-two games that season, and a shortage of effective outfielders pressed him into service at his current position, splitting time between center and right. He captured a pair of Gold Gloves as the Red Sox primary right fielder, and will likely take home another at awards time this season. He has an arm and range that make you wonder why he was ever in the infield to begin with, but can he play second now?
He made his first cameo there since his rookie season on Aug. 8 of this year against the Yankees. In those six innings, he converted both chances into assists for an incident-free outing. Errors are not everything of course, as you can’t make a play on a ball you did not get over to in order to make a play on. In his career’s 128 innings at the position, he has a -1 rating in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average according to Baseball Reference. To save you a headache, that means that he is barely below league average in his innings there.
To get a decent sample size for Betts you have to include his 2014 numbers. For a current comparison, here are the Fielding Runs at second for the current platoon of Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, and Ian Kinsler.
Nunez -3 in 627 1/3 innings.
Holt -3 in 445 1/3 innings.
Kinsler -1 in 298 innings.
They’re all slightly below league average, but certainly not sieves either. This means Betts may be an effective choice at second, but it does raise another issue entirely. What about sending Martinez into the outfield in Los Angeles?
In 57 games with 493 innings logged, Martinez actually posted a 2 in Total Zone Fielding Runs, slightly better than your league average outfielder, by this metric.
By keeping his bat in the lineup, you stay the more dangerous offense in the series, but in comparison, the ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley Jr. was worth a whopping 25 fielding runs this season. In the vast expanses of Chavez Ravine, facing a slugging Dodgers team, plays will need to be made.
The Red Sox starting outfield of Benintendi, Bradley, and Betts is a true counter to the ‘launch angle’ revolution, with their extreme range and phenomenal arms turning fly ball hits into outs and scaring off base runners nightly. The true testament of an outfielder’s arm is the respect of not even testing it, if they were dared more, the starting trio would have even more assists than they already piled up in their 108 win campaign and run to the pennant.
Being traded at the deadline to the NL West Diamondbacks last season means that Martinez has played in this outfield before. He is a respectable outfielder, who can make up for not being a defensive star with a single swing of his bat.
Betts moving to second under National League rules will be the story going into Game 3, whether or not Cora decides to deploy him there from the outset, or during the game. Can being worse at two positions work out to a net gain by keeping both offensive threats in the game?
Whatever Cora decides, it is the difference between the two leagues that is staring him down on his chess board that is this World Series. His decisions in this postseason have shown that the first year manager knows, all the pieces matter.
