In November, the Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the candidates for the 2024 Hall of Fame class. There are 12 new candidates and 14 returners. In order to stay on the ballot for another year, these players must receive at least five percent of votes.
Click here to view Driscoll’s analysis of the returning candidates.
Jose Bautista
People forget how much of a beast Jose Bautista was in his prime. He was MLB’s home run leader two seasons in a row, and he also led all of baseball in OPS and OPS+ in 2011. He was a six-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and finished among the top eight in MVP voting four times. His main problem is that his peak was short-lived. He did not have an OPS+ over 100 (league average) for the first six years of his career and totaled 1.8 WAR over his last three seasons. People will always remember how great he was in the early 2010s but it probably will not be good enough to make the Hall.
Adrian Beltre
Beltre had a very interesting career. He is known as one of the best third basemen of the era. He won a Gold Glove award five times, the Silver Slugger four times, and finished in the top 15 in MVP voting eight times. Six of his MVP candidacies saw him finish within the top 10, and two of them were in the top three. With all this being said, he only made the All-Star game four times. The fact that he was a solid player for 21 years led to him posting 83.8 WAR over his career. Being an elite fielder and hitter for a long time usually gets you in the Hall very, very fast.
Bartolo Colon
Perhaps one of the more beloved players in the league towards the end of his career is up for Hall of Fame consideration this year. Colon pitched for a very long time and had a handful of good seasons. He won the Cy Young award in 2005 and was a four-time All-Star. Outside of a handful of seasons, though, Colon was just average or below average. For his career, he had a 4.12 ERA and 106 ERA+ (100 is league average). As loved as he is, he was not a Hall of Fame-caliber player.
Today, in honor of Bartolo Colón retiring as a Met, it’s important to highlight one of his biggest moments during his three-year tenure.
In the 5th and 6th innings of the 2015 NLCS in Game 4, Colón retired the heart of the Cubs order in Bryant, Rizzo, Castro, and Báez.#LGM pic.twitter.com/lNFT58PXnf
— Dan Bartels (@DanBartels2) September 17, 2023
Adrian Gonzalez
Similar to Bautista, people forget about how good Gonzalez was in his prime. He was a five-time All-Star, won the Gold Glove four times, and the Silver Slugger two times. Keep in mind that he also had a ton of competition for Silver Slugger at first base with Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. He went four years in a row hitting 30-plus home runs. Gonzalez also led the league in RBI in 2014. With all this being said, his peak was also short-lived. Gonzalez only had three seasons with 4.0-plus WAR, and his entire career WAR was only 36.3. (The Hall of Fame average is 50 to 70 WAR). Gonzalez is a player that a lot of baseball fans from the 2010s will talk about at a bar, but his career was not long enough to make the Hall.
Matt Holliday
Holliday is one of the most underrated players of the 2000s. He made the All-Star Game seven times, won the Silver Slugger four times, secured the Batting Title in 2007, was on the 2011 World Series-winning St. Louis Cardinals team, and won NLCS MVP that same year. For the advanced stats, he had a 135 WRC+ and 49.3 WAR. His case is better than most people think, but in a more stacked ballot, it will be tough for him to get past the five percent threshold this year.
Victor Martinez
Martinez would be the textbook definition of “Hall of Very Good” if it were a thing. He made the All-Star Game five times and won the Silver Slugger award twice. His best season was in 2014 when he led the league in OBP and OPS while finishing second in AL MVP voting. Outside of this season, he only finished top 10 in MVP voting one other year. He finished his career with 32.0 WAR. He was a good player but doesn’t make the cut for the Hall of Fame, especially on a stacked ballot.
Joe Mauer
Mauer is known as one of the better catchers of his era, but it still feels like he isn’t talked about a ton. He was a six-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glove winner, won the batting title three times, and was the MVP in 2009. Since 2000, Mauer and Buster Posey are the only two catchers to win MVP. Even though he did not have elite longevity, his peak was extremely high and he was easily a top-three catcher of his generation. It is not a question of if he gets in, but rather when it will happen.
Brandon Phillips
Here we have another “Hall of Very Good” player. Phillips was a three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, and 2011 Silver Slugger recipient. 2011 was the only season he hit .300, and he also posted a career-high WRC+ of 122. This was his only very good season at the plate. In his two next-best seasons, he had a 104 WRC+. Even though he was a very good player for a few years and one of the better defensive second basemen of his time, those batting numbers do not nearly cut it.
Brandon Phillips was a human highlight reel
pic.twitter.com/zYuWicHaIE— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) May 4, 2021
Jose Reyes
Reyes was one of the first players that made me a baseball fan. He was extremely fast and charismatic, and he made baseball fun. Reyes playing in New York was a match made in heaven. He was a four-time All-Star, three-time stolen base leader, recipient of a Silver Slugger award in 2006, and winner of the Batting Title in 2011. Even though Reyes was beloved by Mets fans, he was a very good but not quite great player. He never hit over 20 home runs in a season and only had a WRC+ over 120 once. As impressive as his batting title in 2011 was, he probably will not get a lot of consideration from the voters.
James Shields
To be honest, I was not too familiar with Shields’ career before digging deeper, and I would not be surprised if a lot of other baseball fans felt the same way. With all due respect to Shields, I do not know why he made the ballot in the first place. His single accolade is that he made the All-Star Game in 2011. In that same season, he finished among the top three Cy Young candidates and had a 134 ERA+. That was his only super solid season, and this will likely be his only year on the ballot.
Chase Utley
Utley has an interesting case for the Hall. He was a six-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger, and a key contributor to the 2008 World Series-winning Phillies. He is a player whose advanced stats suggest he was even better than people realized. He had five seasons in which he posted over 7.0 WAR, as well as two over 8.0. From 2005 to 2009, he finished with 134, 150, 130, 134, and 141 WRC+, respectively. It will take a few years, but Utley will likely get in eventually.
David Wright
Even though basketball is the primary sport I cover, David Wright is my favorite athlete of all time, hands down. When people think of Wright, their immediate thought is, “He would be a Hall of Famer if he was never injured.” Well, I’m here to tell you that he should be a Hall of Famer despite the injuries. He was a seven-time All-Star who won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards twice each. Wright also had plenty of competition for both awards at third base including Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman, and Scott Rolen. From 2005 through 2009, he finished with 142, 132, 151, 143, and 125 wRC+, respectively.
If you factor in everything from his hitting to his fielding to his base-running, Wright finished with 51.2 WAR. This would be on the low end for a Hall of Fame inductee. Will he get in? Probably not, but I value peak over longevity. At Wright’s peak, he was one of the best players in baseball. Those types of players deserve a spot in the Hall. Wright’s will forever be one of the sadder careers in sports, and we were robbed of a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
2024 HOF candidate David Wright vs. 1983 HOF inductee George Kell.
Who had the better career? pic.twitter.com/dOJoJIl4fv
— Jim Miloch (@podoffame) December 1, 2023
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