The Boston Red Sox will not have Mookie Betts on its 2020 roster. Any discussion of the 2020 Red Sox has to begin there.
Leadership in Boston believes the trade with the Dodgers will benefit the organization in the long term, and that’s a debatable point. What isn’t debatable: The Sox did not improve their chances this year by shipping off a guy who trails only Mike Trout in WAR over the past five seasons (not to mention losing David Price).
But that’s not the same thing as saying that the Red Sox can’t get better results than they did in 2019, when their 108-victory, championship-winning run in ‘18 gave way to a disappointing 84-78 finish that left them outside the playoff picture. That task has grown significantly more difficult, to be sure.
This is still a good team, however, one with a chance to compete.
As MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince pointed out before the Betts trade, the team’s fWAR projections — converted to win totals — had the Red Sox projected to gain 12 wins, putting them at 96-66. That would drop to 92-70 after the trade, factoring in both the players lost and gained, with Boston still ranking sixth in MLB and fifth in the American League in total WAR. Even 92 wins would far from guarantee a return to October. Every American League playoff team won at least 96 games last year, and all five of those clubs (Astros, A’s, Rays, Twins and Yankees) look strong again. The White Sox have improved and the Blue Jays and Rangers have taken steps forward as well.
Even without Betts and Price, the Red Sox have two top-20 projected position players on the left side of their infield (Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers), a designated hitter who mashes (J.D. Martinez), an intriguing young outfielder an ace starting pitcher (Chris Sale) and another who received Cy Young Award votes in 2019 (Eduardo Rodríguez). That’s still an enviable core. Those six players are projected for a combined 25 wins above replacement, stacking up favorably with the top-sixes of fellow American League contenders such as Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland and Oakland.
There are depth concerns here, but that elite talent goes a long way if those stars can stay healthy.
While the talent is still there for this team, the question marks also do remain. How will the new additions hold up in 2020 (Verdugo, Perez, Pillar, Brice, and Mazza)? How will the holes in the starting rotation and bullpen wear this team down? Will they try to improve their pitching before Opening day?
It is hard to see this team compete in the state that they’re in. The MLB investigation is still ongoing, the interim manager fiasco and the Betts trade makes it hard to see this team succeed.
This was already going to be a challenging season at Fenway, and giving up a generational player ratchets up the degree of difficulty. Nonetheless, Betts leaves a talented, if flawed, roster behind. If some things that went wrong in 2019 go right in ’20, the Sox still have a chance at October.
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