With the fourth and final quarter of the 2019 regular season just a few days away for the NFC South, only two teams have been winning while the other two are quickly fading. There was some big news out of Carolina this week as Panthers owner John Tepper fired head coach Ron Rivera after nine seasons. Of course, this came as a surprise as the Panthers still had four games to play. Secondary coach Perry Fewell will take over as interim head coach while the Panthers look to finish strong in this last month of the regular season. All is normal for the remaining teams of the NFC South as all four teams will prepare for their Week 14 matchups this Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta will host the Panthers Sunday afternoon at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the first of their last two divisional games of the season. The Falcons will look for the sweep on the Panthers as they had won their first meeting, 29-3, in a dominant performance from the Falcons’ defense, ultimately overwhelming rookie quarterback Kyle Allen. This may be the opposite for the Falcons this week as the Panthers enter as the No. 1 team in sacks. Atlanta’s offensive line has been horrid this season and was on full display last week against the New Orleans Saints and the week prior against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they gave up 15 sacks within two weeks.
If Atlanta wants to stay competitive on offense this week, they’ll need to keep quarterback Matt Ryan clean and allow him time to move the ball downfield. Of course, having a decent run game to complement the passing game would help Ryan stay upright, but the Falcons have lacked a true run game in recent weeks. The Falcons have had to go against the No. 2 and 3 rush defenses in the league the last two weeks but head into this week going up against the 29th-ranked unit. If they can get running back Devonta Freeman going early, their chances of being successful in the passing game against the 14th-best pass defense should be fairly good.
With Carolina running back Christain McCaffery coming to town, the Atlanta defensive front seven will need to reduce mental errors and ensure they maintain their gap control. The Falcons were able to limit McCaffery to 70 yards on the ground in their last meeting but got bullied by McCaffery in the passing game by giving up 121 yards on 11 receptions. It starts with the pressure up front.
Prediction: Atlanta 24, Carolina 21
Carolina Panthers
After the big news broke of the firing of Rivera, the future of this team is very much uncertain. What will this team do under interim head coach Perry Fewell? This matchup against the Atlanta Falcons will weigh heavily on what quarterback Kyle Allen will be able to do on offense. Allen will have a decent chance at staying clean with Atlanta ranking 17th in the league for sacks. Atlanta also ranks 17th against the pass but can be sneaky as they have simplified their defensive schemes to allow their defense to play fast without much thinking.
With tight end Greg Olsen questionable to play this Sunday, Allen’s targets will be limited to team-leading receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. Of course, running back Christian McCaffery will be his usual lethal self in both the running game and the passing game, but he’s only one man. Also worth mentioning here: this will be the first game in which we see newly-appointed offensive coordinator Scott Turner taking over the offensive play-calling. Turner will look to keep it simple Sunday. Turner has been communicating the plays to the quarterbacks all season so this should bode well when it’s him making the calls on the sidelines.
On the defensive side of the ball, Carolina will look to keep their sack numbers rolling against Matt Ryan. Their rush defense has been the glaring issue over the last month of football, giving up 583 yards on the ground over that period, inlcuding a season-high 248 rushing yards to the Washington Redskins. Another issue with this defense is their ability to create turnovers over the last several games, ranking them in the lower part of the league. Going against a Dirk Koetter-led offense could benefit the Panthers’ defense in creating opportunities for turnovers with so many 50-50 plays in their scheme.
Prediction: Carolina 21, Atlanta 24
New Orleans Saints
One of the marquee matchups this weekend will be the New Orleans Saints playing host to the San Francisco 49ers. This game is huge for both teams because the winner of this matchup may determine who plays where in January. Drew Brees will have his hands full this weekend going up against the league’s best pass defense, not to mention defensive ends Arik Armstead and rookie Nick Bosa having 10 and eight sacks on the season, respectively. The Niners’ defense is littered with playmakers, having a combined 45 sacks on the season. The New Orleans offensive line will need to play big and strong up the middle going against defensive tackle Deforest Buckner, who is having himself an All-Pro season.
The Saints may not want to test a stingy defensive backfield with the likes of cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, and K’Waun Williams playing well against the deep ball. The Saints have the No. 1 receiver in the game with Michael Thomas who seems to get the best of opposing defenses each week. Brees averages 7.5 yards per attempt and 7.7 air yards per attempt. Brees will need to take his deep shots when it’s absolutely there, but the short passing game has favored Brees all season. With San Fransico allowing only 15.3 points per game, good for second in the league, the Saints will need to take every opportunity they get to score offensively.
San Francisco is allowing 116.7 rushing yards per game this far into the season which may allow running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to gain some ground on the ground. The Saints hold the league’s 17th-best rushing attack, averaging just over 107 yards allowed on the ground per game. These backs may be asked to assist in the passing game on Sunday, too, giving the Saints a chance at off-setting the 49ers’ pass rush.
San Fransico doesn’t have a plethora of offensive playmakers outside of tight end George Kittle, but they have been effective in both the passing game and the rushing game. With somewhat of a three-headed dragon in the run game, Tevin Coleman, Matt Brieda, and Raheem Mostert all share the running responsibilities. The 49ers keep you guessing as to which back will do the most damage each week. The challenge here will be for the Saints’ linebackers to contain whichever back is running because each one of these running backs has homerun speed when given the chance to make it past the second level of defense.
Prediction: New Orleans 21, San Fransico 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming off two balanced showings on both defense and offense, Tampa Bay will look to make it three in a row as they take on the Indianapolis Colts at home. The No. 4 scoring offense in the league is led by fifth-year quarterback Jameis Winston, who has no problem moving the ball and scoring points. Winston has been playing better football over the last several games and continues to push the ball down the field to the No. 2 and 3 in the league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both pass-catchers have eclipsed 1,000 yards this season and will look to expose the Colts’ 12th-ranked passing defense which allows 257 yards through the air per game.
Tampa Bay has lacked the third receiver all season until last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars when wideout Breshad Perriman led the team in receiving yards while making some very big catches. We also saw more of tight end O.J. Howard, which has been rare in 2019. The Colts have been good defensively in the red zone which may cause issues for the Tampa Bay offense. Winston will need to limit the miscues in the red zone and rely on his playmakers to get the ball in the end zone.
Indianapolis holds the ninth-ranked rushing defense which allows 101.8 yards per game to opposing running backs. After missing a blitz pickup against Jacksonville last week, running back Ronald Jones II was benched. Peyton Baber carried the load for the Bucs last Sunday and was able to find the end zone twice. This week, the Bucs will need to have the ground game going to help take the load off of Winston. Jones has the agility and elusiveness to cause problems for the Colts as long as the offensive line can create running lanes for him.
The emergence of the Buccaneers’ young secondary has been refreshing for Tampa Bay fans as of late. The first half of the season was too reminiscent of last season’s Mike Smith-led defense. Rookies Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting have shown signs of growth and have had themselves a few very good games. Second-year cornerback Carlton Davis III has emerged as the Buccaneers’ best cover corner and is aggressive in tackling. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett averages just 204.1 passing yards a game. The Bucs’ defensive line will need to apply an ample amount of pressure in order to set up the secondary.
The league’s leading sacker, Shaquil Barrett, will look to continue his chase to best Buccaneers legend and Hall of Famer Warren Sapp‘s season sack record. Indianapolis’ offensive line will have their hands full going against Jason Pierre-Paul, Carl Nassib, Barrett, and Vita Vea on Sunday. Don’t expect the Colts to gain much on the ground as the Buccaneers currently hold the No. 2-ranked rush defense led by Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and William Gholston.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 35, Indianapolis 28
