Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions to see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 89-57-1 (4-8 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 71-73-3 (4-7-1 last week)
Confidence Points: 300.6 (-37.1 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 5.4 (-28.7 last week)
Thursday Game:
Steelers at Browns (PIT +3)
Steelers 20, Browns 16
Confidence: 4.5
Spread confidence: 5.3
The Steelers and Browns come into Thursday’s games in important positions. The Steelers have won five of six to jump into the sixth seed in the AFC while the Browns ended their four-game losing streak last week. A Steelers win would practically sink the Browns’ odds at the playoffs, and I think they get that win narrowly.
Sunday Games:
Cowboys at Lions
Cowboys 28, Lions 20 (DAL -3.5)
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 7.2
The Cowboys burned me last week as they marked the end of my survival run. Dallas is a much better team than Detroit, and I anticipate that they continue to roll offensively.
Jaguars at Colts (JAX +2.5)
Jaguars 20, Colts 16
Confidence: 1.4
Spread confidence: 1.9
If Jacoby Brissett plays, you can ignore this prediction, but I think the Jaguars can topple the Colts if Brian Hoyer plays. As weird as it seems, Jacksonville would only be one game back of the sixth seed if they win (assuming that the Raiders and Steelers both win their games).
Bills at Dolphins (BUF -6)
Bills 21, Dolphins 14
Confidence: 6.7
Spread confidence: 4.3
The Dolphins have played fairly well in November, knocking off the Jets and Colts in surprising wins. I think their luck wears off as they play the impressive secondary of the Bills.
Broncos at Vikings (MIN -10.5)
Vikings 31, Broncos 14
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 4.6
Kirk Cousins at 1:00 p.m. EST is an animal, and I expect him to eat the Broncos alive as Brandon Allen will likely be unable to move the ball for the Broncos. I think the Vikings will roll.
Falcons at Panthers (CAR -5.5)
Panthers 24, Falcons 16
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 5.6
The Falcons do not have much hope to stop Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey should account for nearly 200 yards of total offense and score multiple touchdowns in a resounding Panthers victory.
Saints at Buccaneers (NO -5.5)
Saints 28, Buccaneers 21
Confidence: 9.4
Spread confidence: 6.7
The loss to the Falcons was an anomaly. The Saints are one of the NFL’s best teams, but they are not unbeatable. I expect the Saints to bounce back in a big way and beat the Buccaneers.
Jets at Redskins (NYJ +1.5)
Jets 20, Redskins 12
Confidence: 3.2
Spread confidence: 3.3
Sam Darnold is better than Dwayne Haskins. Beyond that, both teams are depleted on the injury front, and neither has much to play for this season. I think the Jets are the better of the two teams and will win.
Texans at Ravens (BAL -4)
Ravens 31, Texans 26
Confidence: 0
Spread confidence: 0
The Texans and Ravens are two of the best teams in the NFL. This game should be as entertaining as any game on the season. I think both teams should be able to move the ball with relative ease, but I think the Ravens will get one critical stop via a Marlon Humphrey interception to clinch the win.
Cardinals at 49ers (ARZ +10.5)
49ers 31, Cardinals 24
Confidence: 8.7
Spread confidence: 9.0
While the 49ers could send a message to the NFL win a big win, I anticipate that the Cardinals will keep the game within 10 points for most of the way. This should be one of the week’s most exciting games.
Bengals at Raiders (OAK -10.5)
Raiders 31, Bengals 17
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.1
The Bengals are atrocious. The Raiders will win.
Patriots at Eagles (NE -3.5)
Patriots 30, Eagles 25
Confidence: 7.4
Spread confidence: 6.5
While I could cite the 2015 matchup as a time that an inferior Eagles team knocked off a superior Patriots team, I think the Patriots will have a lot of success in terms of forcing turnovers and moving the ball on the Eagles. The game should be close, but I expect the Patriots to win.
Sunday Night Football:
Bears at Rams (CHI +6.5)
Rams 17, Bears 14
Confidence: 3.4
Spread confidence: 4.1
The 2018 version of Bears-Rams was a defensive showcase. I expect the 2019 version to align more with offensive ineptitude as both offenses have been flat for most of the season. I back the Bears against the spread, but this game is a tough one to choose a winner.
Monday Night Football:
Chiefs at Chargers (KC -3.5)
Chiefs 41, Chargers 28
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 5.6
Patrick Mahomes will have another field day, and the Chiefs should plaster the Chargers.
