Breeland Speaks was possibly the most controversial player for the Chiefs in 2018. Was he as bad as fans speculated, or is he just having some growing pains?
When Breeland Speaks was taken in the second round in 2018, the pick was very unpopular. Speaks didn’t present a good player profile. Standing at 6-foot-3 and 285 pounds, he wasn’t very athletic. Fans were outraged at the pick, and rightfully so; Speaks didn’t perform the best in college. So I decided to do an in-depth breakdown of Speaks last year, to see if he was as bad as people think he is.
Scouting Report
Speaks was a three-year college player out of Ole Miss, and wasn’t very productive in college. In his first two years at Ole Miss, Speaks put up a total of two sacks, and just seven tackles for loss. He came alive in his last year of college though, posting seven sacks, and eight tackles for loss. Speaks put together better tape, and his stock soared.
General manager Brett Veach identified him as a player who could help the defense instantly. Veach loved his effort, and his ability to play inside and outside. He felt that Speaks could be an instant contributor, who could slide alongside Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Tanoh Kpassagnon as outside linebackers.
The transition to a 3-4 scheme hurt Speaks though. Speaks looked slow, only posting up 1.5 sacks and three tackles for loss. Speaks wasn’t the immediate contributor Veach envisioned, and Kansas City fans didn’t appreciate his season. Many thought it was a terrible pick, but when watching the film and charting, Speaks turned out to not be as bad as expected.
The Numbers
Developing a system to grade pass rushers wasn’t easy. Pass rushers, mainly defensive ends, in this case, have a lot of responsibility to stop the run, and understanding the role of the player isn’t easy. You have to look for very specific data to try and come to a conclusion.
For run snaps, I decided to look for these things;
- Run Win: A run win would be considered setting an edge well, flowing to the ball well, taking a good angle, or good play recognition.
- Run Loss: Opposite of run win. Doesn’t set the edge well, doesn’t flow to ball, reads play wrong, or take a terrible angle.
- Run Neutral: This is where the play doesn’t affect the defensive end. Can’t grade based off the play.
- Double Team/Stuff: I also charted how often the defensive end got double teamed every game. Run stuffs were also important. A run stuff is a concept where the defensive end stops the run between 0-4 yards.
Passing snaps were more difficult. There are an array of moves for pass rushers to use. Understanding what exactly they are trying to accomplish requires watching the same play many times. In the end, I found this data to be the most important;
- Pass Rush Win: A pass rush win is a rush that is effective. The move the defensive end takes to get to the quarterback has to work, even if they don’t get a sack.
- Pass Rush Loss: The move that is attempted doesn’t work at all, and the rush is ineffective.
- Pass Rush Neutral: Either the ball is thrown too quickly, or a double team comes to stop the defensive end.
- Double Team/Drops in Coverage: Like run snaps, I charted how often the defensive end got double teamed, but also their drops in coverage. The coverage snaps don’t affect the win percentage of the player.
- Pressure: Any time they got pressure on the quarterback, they got a point. A pressure is where the defensive end wins on the quarterback and forces the quarterback to panic.
| Speaks Run Snaps | ||||||||
| Game | Snaps Charted | Run Defense Win | Run Defense Loss | Run Defense Neutral | Stuff | Double Team | Run Win % | Run Loss % |
| Broncos | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 17.2% |
| Bengals | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Patriots | 34 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 11.8% | 8.8% |
| Browns | 24 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| TOTALS | 109 | 16 | 11 | 82 | 5 | 1 | 14.7% | 10.1% |
Speaks overall grades as a pretty decent run defender. Last year, I didn’t really think Speaks was a very good run defender in live games. I thought he got out of position too often and was just too slow to do anything against the run. He graded well as a run defender though. For a rookie, a 14.7 percent win rate is actually pretty good.
Speaks definitely was not consistent against the run though. Against Cleveland, Speaks was really good against the run, with a high win rate. That is a really good game for anyone, but then Speaks has weeks where he was bad, like against Denver. He was never very consistent as time went on, and didn’t really improve a ton throughout the year.
Overall, Speaks is an okay run defender. He is strong enough to set a good edge, and he is hard to move around. Speaks isn’t necessarily fast to flow to the ball, but isn’t terrible as well. For a first-year player, Speaks shows enough promise as a run defender to warrant hope he can become a very good run defender.
| Speaks Pass Snaps | |||||||||||
| Game | Snaps Charted | Pass Rush Win | Pass Rush Loss | Pass Rush Neutral | Double Team | Pass Deflection | Drops into Coverage | Pressures | Pass Rush Win % | Pass Rush Loss % | Pressure Rate |
| Broncos | 35 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Bengals | 36 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22.9% | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Patriots | 37 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 13.3% | 23.3% | 6.7% |
| Browns | 40 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 13.8% | 20.7% | 3.4% |
| Cardinals | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38.5% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| TOTAL | 163 | 26 | 26 | 82 | 8 | 0 | 29 | 12 | 19.4% | 19.4% | 9.0% |
Speaks was an interesting study. For his first couple of games, Speaks had decent games. An average NFL defensive end posts win rates around 18-20 percent, with about a loss rate of 12 percent. Speaks’s numbers were around there for the first couple of games, which was an encouraging sign. Then all of a sudden, he had two horrid games. Speaks was widely ineffective in both of those games, playing very poorly in both. The fifth game is a wash, as he only had 15 snaps in total.
It is remarkable how consistent Speaks truly was in totality. He had exactly 26 wins and losses. That is consistency in a nutshell. A 19% pressure rate is pretty good for a rookie. An average defensive end gets around 19% pass rush rate, but with a lower loss rate. Speaks does need to clean up his loss percentage, as that is too high for any pass rusher.
Speaks definitely graded better than I expected. I thought he was much worse watching live games last year, but he really wasn’t terrible. Speaks plays with good power, he knows when to change up his moves, and plays with good effort. There is a lot of room for him to improve though. As this season progresses, I would like to see Speaks stay more consistent, which will help his performance.
The Tape
For each film review I do, I will pick one good play I liked, and one bad play I liked, to show a small example of the strengths and weaknesses of the player.
I charted this as a win for Speaks. Gets on shoulder of tackle, forces him wide, then uses power to make him get on the tackle's heels. Doesn't get pressure, but Speaks plays with good power. Needs to get better at using his hands if power doesn't work, but has a good bull rush pic.twitter.com/uRLFdEk67H
— Nate Christensen (@natech32) May 5, 2019
This is textbook Speaks right here. Speaks starts in a stand-up stance, at the nine technique. He then drops into a three-point stance and has a good get-off. He pushes on the left shoulder of the tackle, but slowly faces up and overpowers the tackle. Speaks loves this move, where he gets his depth, then uses power to push back on the tackle. Here, his move is effective, and it allows him to move the tackle.
Speaks is a power player, and it shows for sure. He mainly runs most of his rushes using power, and while they can stagnate, he has enough strength to pull off multiple bull rushes a game that are effective.
This is why power isn't perfect. Speaks tries and outmuscles Trent Brown, but the second Brown pushes back, Speaks can't do anything. Brandon Daly has his work cut out for Speaks. Speaks has to develop secondary moves, or he will never get any better. pic.twitter.com/Rk1uJ3Ow6o
— Nate Christensen (@natech32) May 8, 2019
Here is the problem with power, however. If you don’t have a good get-off, power can be limited. Tackles are very strong, and won’t be bullied around. Here, Trent Brown, the Patriots tackle, keeps good power and balance, and Speaks can’t move. Speaks doesn’t have any secondary pass rush moves in his arsenal, so he is widely ineffective.
This was by far the most common weakness I noticed; a lack of secondary pass rush moves. If his first move doesn’t work, then he has a bad snap. New defensive line coach Brendan Daly has a lot of work to do with Speaks, helping him work on an overall better rush plan.
Conclusion; What role can Speaks play?
Speaks has a lot of work to do. He was decent in his first year, but he has to show more. Consistency is a major issue for Speaks. If he can’t stay consistent, he is gonna have a hard time finding a role on this team. Speaks also must develop a rush plan to get better. Every pass rusher must develop a plan of attack if they ever plan on getting better, or they will just plateau.
Speaks projects as a potential starter in the league. His rookie year showed some decent promise, and if he can improve, he could take a starter role someday. This next year may not be that year. This offseason, Kansas City acquired Frank Clark, Alex Okafor, and Emmanuel Ogbah to compete with Speaks. Not to mention some leaked photos of how overweight Speaks looks and the signs aren’t encouraging. For Speaks to carve out a role in new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, he must be able to play everywhere, including the edge. If his weight is an issue, Speaks may never get better, and prove to be a bust.
For a more in-depth breakdown of film on Twitter, please follow @natech479. I do many more plays and analysis of players, so to see more Breeland Speaks tape, head on over and leave a comment! Thanks for reading everyone!
