John Lepore | September 6th, 2019
The baseball season is a grind. It’s every single day. We will approach DFS the same way and be winners at the end of the season even if we have our hot streaks and slumps. Every day there are safe bets that flop and values that hit big, but we need to stick with our strategy in evaluating and playing. Let’s take a look at what we have today.
Locks
Dylan Bundy – He will be facing the Texas Rangers at home tonight. While Bundy has not been stellar this season by any stretch of the imagination, tonight is a great value matchup, especially against the depleted Texas lineup. The Rangers are still without Joey Gallo, Hunter Pence was placed on the IL, and Nomar Mazara who just returned when rosters expanded has been out the past two games with an oblique injury. Those three hitters account for nearly 30% of the Rangers HRs this season. The Rangers have scored more than three runs only twice in their last 11 games and have struck out more than any team in the majors (1,401). Bundy has been solid recently. In his last four home starts, he has a 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 22/6 K/BB rate. Bundy is only $7,300 on DraftKings so go ahead and pair him with a chalk pitcher like…
Clayton Kershaw – The lefty just dominates the San Francisco Giants. He has been terrorizing them for over a decade. Kershaw’s numbers against his NL West rivals are impressive: 23-11, 1.68 ERA, 0.851 WHIP, and 343/49 K/BB rate. He is also 9-1 at home this season and the last time he faced the Giants he shut them out for seven innings, allowing only three hits and striking out six. The longtime combination of Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt struggles mightily against Kershaw. In their careers, they are slashing .161/.201/.220 with only 3 HRs (all by Posey) and an 11/61 BB/K rate. Don’t overthink this one people. The demise of CK was a bit premature and he has dominated the main guys in the Giants lineup for a long, long time.
Stacks
St. Louis Cardinals vs Joe Musgrove – The Cardinals own Joe Musgrove. I mean it is a little ridiculous. The Pittsburgh Pirates righty has started four games against the RedBirds this season and he is an abysmal 0-4 with a nice even 10.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Cardinals have a .997 OPS against Musgrove this season. The combination of Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, and Tommy Edman is 23-47 with 10 doubles, a triple, and 2 HRs along with a beautiful 12/9 BB/K rate. Mix and match these guys to what fits your budget tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Steven Matz – Although Matz has been better of late, he does not like facing the Phillies. They have lit him up this season. In 16 innings the New York Mets lefty has given up 27 hits (7 HRs) and walked seven to the tune of a 9.00 ERA and a 2.125 WHIP. Again this can be a mix and match lineup for whatever fits your budget and needs. Maikel Franco, Jean Segura, Carlos Hernandez, Bryce Harper, and Scott Kingery are 37-95 with 6 doubles, 6 bombs, and a 10/10 BB/K rate. Even though Rhys Hoskins only has three hits against Matz, they are all home runs.
Barrels
Alex Bregman – Even in a small sample size, he absolutely crushes Tommy Milone going 5-7, a double, a HR, and two walks. Bregman has been steadily raking. Heading into August he was slashing .259/.393/.516 and he is currently at .295/.414/.572. He has gotten on base 28 games in a row and has 16 doubles and 7 HRs in that stretch. Lefties? He loves them. Rocking a .331/.411/.669 with 11 HRs in 158 PAs and a 20/21 BB/K rate against southpaws this year. He may be pricey at $5,500 on DK but his floor is as good as it gets.
Kyle Schwarber – Instead of the floor here, I’m going for the gusto and a solid GPP play. Schwarber is only 6-28 against Zach Davies, but four of those hits are bombs, and Kyle has walked five times against the Milwaukee righty. Since the beginning of August, Schwarber has been hot, slashing .300/.406/.722 with 10 HRs. He also seems to enjoy Miller Park this season going 7-21 with 3 HRs and 12 RBI.
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