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The first round of the NBA Playoffs is officially wrapped up, and a lot of crazy things have happened. This mostly has to do with the fact that a ton of stars have been eliminated. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden — who are all out — are stars we are used to seeing make it past the first round.
Is this a passing of the torch? Or is it just a wild year? Only time will tell. Until then, here are my predictions for the Conference Semifinals.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #4 Denver Nuggets
This series is going to be very hit-or-miss. This is a classic series where the Nuggets have the best player, but the Thunder have the significantly better roster. Lots of people think that whoever wins this series will determine who the “True MVP” is. While I disagree with this premise, both Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are under a ton of pressure.
At the beginning of the season, most people counted out the Nuggets as contenders, given how awful they started. They were the ninth seed on December 7, and hough this is not too crazy of a comeback, at the time it felt like they were dead as a team since they lost a lot of their key players since their championship run two years ago. Since the end of the regular season, they have been playing their best basketball since their run. If the Nuggets want to win this series, a few things will have to go their way.
Firstly, Jokic is going to have to play like the MVP. If SGA outplays Jokic, there is likely not a path to the Nuggets winning. In addition, Jamal Murray will need to play at an All-NBA level. I did not think we would see this version of him again, but he showed flashes of it last round. Lastly, they will need to stop Jalen Williams from getting hot. All three of these things need to happen.
For the Thunder, their margin for error is much larger. SGA could have a below-average series to his standards, and the Thunder could still win the series comfortably. They have the best personnel in the league in stopping Jokic, Isaiah Hartenstein will likely be the guy guarding Jokic straight up. Chet Holmgren will likely be guarding Aaron Gordon, but leaving him open to double Jokic as the “roamer”. With this all being said, it will be interesting to see how the Thunder’s elite defense will attempt other ways to slow their offense down if Jokic is the one they can’t stop.
This series has potential. Watching the two MVPs go head to head is always much watch TV. With this all being said, too much would have to go Denver’s way if they want to win four games out of seven in the series.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #7 Golden State Warriors
This is the second time in three years we have the sixth seed playing the seventh seed in the second round of the Western Conference. The Warriors were the six seed in 2023, and lost to the seventh-seeded Lakers. Though the Warriors are in a similar spot, the Wolves are a much different team than the Lakers were.
The Warriors have had one roller coaster of a season. They were one of the best teams in the West the first couple weeks of the season, fell apart for a few months, traded for Jimmy Butler, went on a massive run, cooled down the last week of the season, and won in seven games against a young and exciting Houston Rockets team. All of these games were extremely different. With all this said, they will need to be more consistent against a team like the Timberwolves. Steph Curry needs to get hot early, Butler needs to demand the ball more in close games, and Draymond Green will need to do his best to slow down Anthony Edwards in big spots. This includes guarding him head-on, but also being an elite help defender.
The Wolves also need a lot to go their way. Edwards did not play so great in the closeout game, but I do not think he could get away with this against the Warriors. He was able to get away with certain things against the Lakers’ defense because they do not have any great defensive players, but the Warriors have Green and other good defenders. However, the Wolves do have multiple ways to beat the Warriors outside of Edwards, whether it is through Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, or Naz Reid.
This is probably the hardest playoff series to predict. When it comes down to it, though, I trust Curry more than I trust Edwards, and I trust the Wolves’ depth and coaching more.
Prediction: Wolves in 6
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are up 2-0 in this series now. There were two awesome games that came down to the last three minutes. This will likely be the least viewed series, given that they are both small markets and neither of their stars is in the top ten (even though Tyrese Haliburton and Donovan Mitchell are two of my favorite players). With this being said, it could be the most entertaining series.
The Pacers won 14 fewer games than the Cavs in the regular season. However, in the playoffs, the Pacers are a much better team than their record. Last season, they made the conference finals. Although they got swept, most Celtic fans (including myself) will tell you that the Pacers gave them more problems than any team on their route to the finals. In addition, they have a super well-rounded team. Outside of Haliburton, they do not have any top 20 players (and some people would not put him in the top 20), but it does not matter because of how deep they are. Their defense was a known concern last year, but since the All-Star break, they have been eighth in defensive rating.
The Cavs, on the other hand, have been one of the best teams all season long. While not having a top-ten player, they have been super dominant because of their depth and scheming. In addition, Evan Mobley took a huge jump this year and won Defensive Player of the Year. However, they have slipped slightly since the All-Star break. They were towards the top in all of the league in most of the advanced stats towards the beginning of the year but were sixth in net rating since the All-Star break. In addition, they are unsure how long Darius Garland will be out for.
It is going to be a hard-fought series and all about matchups. I had this section of the article written earlier last week but waited to publish the article until all the matchups were set. I had the Cavs winning at first. However, it seems like the Cavs just have too much in their way. Garland will be out for at least 1-2 weeks, and Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter are questionable for Game 2. This is all in addition to the fact they are down 1-0. It is certainly a possibility, but things need to turn around for the Cavs quickly if they want to win.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #3 New York Knicks
Debatably, the two most marketable teams in the East will finally match up. People were hoping this would be the Eastern Conference Finals matchups last year. The Celtics swept the season series 4-0, but I would be very surprised if it turned out to be the case this series.
In fact, the Knicks are already up 1-0.
The Knicks have been a fun team for the past three seasons now. Last year, people loved the idea of the Knicks but did not think they had enough. Their front office clearly agreed and traded for Karl-Anthony Towns who has been awesome for them. He will be essential in this series. The Celtics scheme has been around targeting Jalen Brunson, so Towns will need to be as aggressive as he was last year when he was guarding Jokic. In addition, it will not only take another great series from Brunson but from OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges as well.
For the Celtics, they are obviously very confident they will win this series. However, they are also concerned about their health. Jaylen Brown has been dealing with a knee injury for a couple of months now, Jrue Holiday missed the last three playoff games due to a hamstring injury, Kristaps Porzingis is as injury-prone as anyone in the league, and Jayson Tatum suffered a bone bruise in his wrist in game one of last series. With this being said, everyone was ready to go for Game 1.
At the end of the day, if Tatum performs to his standards and gets at least some help from his supporting cast, the Celtics should have no problem winning this series.
When it comes down to it, the Knicks’ margin of error is much smaller than that of the Celtics. Even if Jalen Brunson plays awesome and Jayson Tatum does not play well, there is a world where the Celtics win in other ways.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Conclusion:
A lot of crazy things have happened in the NBA over the past few weeks, and I would be very surprised if this did not continue throughout the second round.
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