Tonight is the beginning of our new series that will highlight the best prop bets across the NBA. We begin with a nine-game slate that gave us a lot to comb over and dive into. Now, the job is done and the picks are in. There wound up being a total of five props taken in the nine-game slate.
General Rule: No odds greater than -150. This is to ensure value in tracking the overall record.
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Tristan Thompson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+102)
Thompson finds himself in a great spot to put up numbers as his Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers. Indiana ranks 22nd in the league in rebound percentage and struggle especially on the defensive glass. Their defensive rebounding percentage ranks 25th in the NBA, making them especially vulnerable to strong offensive rebounders.
Thompson is exactly that. In fact, he’s been widely regarded as one of the best offensive rebounders in the game for a number of years now. This year is much the same. Over the last five games, the big man has seen a slight bump in his playing time and that trend should continue in order to attack a Pacers weakness.
Expect Thompson to make it three straight games with double-digit rebounds tonight against the Pacers.
Jonas Valanciunas Over 14.5 Points (-122)
Another prop bet on a big man, here it’s Valanciunas playing the same Clippers team he played last night. While he barely went over 14.5 in that game, finishing with 16, that was only close because the Grizzlies put the game away early. No Memphis player hit the 30-minute mark in what was a lopsided victory.
It’s hard to imagine the Clippers won’t come out firing following the 28 point defeat last night. Memphis will need to feature their reliable and consistent big man early and often to keep their offense on pace. It’s part of their gameplan against a lot of western conference teams. Valanciunas is averaging 17.1 points per game against teams in the west in 12 games this season, compared to 14.8 points per game in 11 games against eastern conference teams.
Look for that trend to continue in this rematch as Valanciunas eclipses the 15 point mark once again.
Buddy Hield Under 16.5 Points (-122)
The Kings have a variety of things going bad right now as they enter tonight’s game on a nine-game losing streak. There’s blame to go around to a number of people for the current state of the team, but we’re zoning-in on Hield to find a prop bet.
He’s failed to score more than 13 points in four of the last five and doesn’t appear to have any type of rhythm at the moment. He’s connected on just 11 of his last 42 three-point attempts, a success rate of 26.2 percent. This is an above 40 percent three-point shooter for his career, so something isn’t right with him recently.
That’s a common trend on the Kings at the moment, and it’s unlikely to change anytime soon. In addition to the recent struggles, his season average is at 15.5 points per contest. There’s no reason to take a number above that given his recent shooting performances.
It can be scary betting against proven shooters, but take Hield under 16.5 points with confidence tonight.
Jimmy Butler Over 15.5 Rebounds & Assists (-113)
With the hottest team in the NBA right now coming to town, this feels like a game not only the Heat are going to turn up for, but Jimmy Butler specifically. We know who he is, how he is, and what he does, and all signs point to him making a statement as he gets to face the red hot Utah Jazz.
That mentality only gives a bettor so much confidence, though, so there’s more reasoning than assuming he’s going to be extra motivated.
Butler has been playing at an incredible level recently, doing so while impacting the game wherever he needs to in order to help his team. He’s tallied nine or more assists in 10 of the last 12, while also reaching double digits on the glass in five of those games.
That’s led to averages of 9.2 assists and 8.7 rebounds in the last 12. The Heat need wins right now, which gives me confidence Butler will keep dominating.
Kyle Lowry Over 23.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
Last but not least, an over on veteran point guard Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors. He’s leading his team into a showdown with the free-falling Houston Rockets who have dropped nine straight games. Not just leading his team like any game, likely leading his team more directly as the Raptors will be without head coach Nick Nurse and a handful of his top assistants. They’re not with the team tonight as they are required to quarantine.
Well, that’s obviously not the ideal situation. Given the circumstances, though, Lowry is one of the better players a team could have leading the charge. Expect him to be assertive and active in this one in the absence of those coaches.
Additionally, his season averages of 18 points and 5.5 rebounds lands exactly on the 23.5 number this line is set at. His recent play has been trending towards the over, though, and the added leadership expected of him tonight leads to a confident over 23.5 points + rebounds.
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