MLB DFS: Aces, Jacks, and Stacks for April 25by Joe Ricotta April 25, 2022 0 comments
Mondays start the new work week. I guess you could say, it kicks off a string of days where we fight for our money. That’s why I like to call today “Making Money Monday.” I think it’s perfect. In our case, we don’t have to wait until the end of the week or two weeks from now to cash our checks. If we get the DFS slate right, we could cash out at the end of the night. With that said, let’s piece together some quality lineups in hopes of doing just that.
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All of these top tier names are viable options on this shorter seven-game slate. They all offer upside via the strikeout and pitching deep into the ballgame with a chance at picking up a win. My favorite out of the bunch for this slate is Scherzer.
Although Nolan Arenado is on a tear to start the season, Mad Max will get the benefit of pitching in a pitcher’s park and will most likely face predominantly right-handed hitting lineup that the Cardinals will trot out there.
Framber Valdez ($8,400 DK, $8,700 FD)
Framber is a much better pitcher than he’s shown. His curveball remains a disgusting offering, but he’s struggled with command so far this year with a 16.1 percent walk rate, which ranks bottom nine percent of the league.
I think Framber gets back on track here. Most of the damage he’s allowed over his career has been vs. right-handed batters. If he gets through Marcus Semien and Mitch Garver, the rest of the danger bats are Corey Seager and lefties in this Texas Rangers lineup.
Michael Lorenzen ($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
The Cleveland Guardians might be one of the biggest surprises to start the year. Many expected them to be dead last in the AL Central Division after failing to do much of anything during the offseason. While they’re only 7-8, they’re only a half-game back of first place in the standings. However, Cleveland has the second-highest BABIP in baseball. There could be some offensive regression coming.
Lorenzen got brushed up a little his last time out, allowing four earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Houston Astros. Still, Lorenzen showed me quite a bit in his first start of the year against the Miami Marlins. He allowed only one run on two hits, struck out seven with zero walks, and generated 14 whiffs. I’m not sure he’s a great pitcher, but I’ll take the dive and hope for the best at this cheap price tag in DFS.
Since I started with aces, it’s easy to think of jacks as a card type. DFS is a lot like playing poker. Jacks, in this case, are the hitters I believe have a chance of hitting a home run aka a jack or providing solid value otherwise. It’s not all about home runs. We’ll take a pair of extra-base hits and RBIs. Let’s find that production.
C –Zack Collins ($3,200 DK, $2,700 FD)
Talk about an extremely small sample. In Collins’ two plate appearances vs. Nathan Eovaldi, he’s homered and struck out. I’ll take the gamble that he’ll get at least one hit if he’s in the lineup against him today. The Blue Jays have been putting Collins in a decent spot recently in the order. Maybe we get cleanup hitter Collins. At $3,200, that’s not a bad gamble to take, especially when the Blue Jays have one of the most potent offenses in the league.
1B/OF – Josh Naylor ($2,500 DK and FD)
Ride the wave. Naylor is currently on a mini heater. Naylor has five multi-hit games out of seven played so far this year, with a .400 batting average and one homer. I’m higher than most on Michael Lorenzen this season, and this could be a good matchup for him. However, this is one of the bats in the Cleveland Guardians’ lineup I’m afraid of at the moment. I’ll plug Naylor into a few lineups as a cheap value play.
1B – Pete Alonso ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD)
Alonso is always a worthy option in DFS if you don’t want to spend down at the first base spot for Naylor. The Polar Bear hasn’t homered since April 17, and he’s capable of going yard at any moment. Miles Mikolas has been good thus far, but I’m not fully bought in. I think he’s been more lucky than good so far. He’s still missing over the plate with his four-seamer, curveball, and sinker. Alonso could take advantage.
2B – Jean Segura ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)
Segura isn’t the best point per dollar option tonight. Nonetheless, I think he has one of the highest points ceilings of anyone on the slate at the second base spot. Segura is 4-for-12 with a couple of bombs vs Kyle Freeland, and he should be hitting leadoff in the Phillies’ order.
OF – Kyle Tucker ($4,100 DK, $2,900 FD)
Tucker has been getting rather unlucky. Looking at the Statcast leaderboard page, Tucker has the biggest difference among qualified hitters from wOBA (.206) to xwOBA (.386). His SLG compared to xSLG and BA compared to xBA are also incredibly off.
Tucker is putting the bat on the ball and making better contact than the surface stats and his .127 batting average show. His three-hit game on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays might indicate he’s close to breaking out. I’m jumping on before the positive regression hits, not after.
Houston Astros vs. Dane Dunning
Dunning has had some issues so far this year. His swinging-strike rate is down, his walk rate is up, and just about all of the expected metrics against him aren’t great, especially the 51.3 percent hard-hit rate and .510 xwOBACON. The Astros should be in a good position to have a field day against him. The entire lineup is in play as an option.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kyle Freeland
Freeland just landed himself a five-year $64.5 million contract extension with the Colorado Rockies. Maybe this is a situation where the Denver native is feeling a little too loose and free now that he has some contract security. The Phillies only scored two against him on April 19th at Coors Field. However, facing the same lineup with this quick of a turnaround (it was Freeland’s last start), usually doesn’t bode well for the pitcher. The Phillies should remember what he throws and how his pitches move very well. I think some of these Phils are in store for a big day.
Monday doesn’t have to be a drag. Let’s make it a drag bunt for a hit. Best of luck, and let’s win some cash in MLB DFS.
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @JoeyKnowsNothin
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