NFL DFS: Week 15 Cash Game Playsby Joe Ricotta December 19, 2021 0 comments
What a mess this week has been. Between games getting postponed and an uncanny number of players being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, figuring out what to do with our NFL DFS lineups has been nearly an impossible task.
I’m sure we all know people who like to do chores. I’m not one of those people, at least when it comes to my hobbies. Hobbies are not supposed to be chores! Yes, writing this weekly article is a job, but it’s fun. It’s not fun when you’re constantly refreshing Twitter for the latest player to hit the “Do not put in the lineup this week” list. With that said, let’s get to the cash game plays I eventually landed on for Week 15.
Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD)
Dak admitted he isn’t playing his “best ball” at the moment. He has thrown five interceptions over his last three games. How long will his struggles last? The New York Giants could be a perfect remedy. Dak threw for 302 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception when they met in Week 5. Good enough for 25.7 DK points. A repeat performance would pay off his price tag. The Giants are tied for the seventh-most touchdown passes allowed this year.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,700 DraftKings)
I’m more than okay with taking a discount at quarterback this week. Prescott is a solid option who’s primed for a bounceback game. However, he might be playing in windier conditions at MetLife Stadium. Today, Tua gets to square off against the New York Jets as a home favorite. The Jets are dead last in pass defense DVOA. He’s not the best option on the board, but a solid block.
Other Option: Kyler Murray
James Robinson ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD) – 🔒
There were many reasons why Urban Meyer was fired as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Among them was his decision to bench Robinson after fumbling in consecutive games. Sure, Robinson needs to do a better job of holding onto the ball, but he’s one of the best offensive players the Jaguars have.
Robinson ranks fourth in the NFL in DYAR and fifth in DVOA among running backs. In simpler terms, Robinson is outlandishly more valuable than replacement level, and he adds a lot more value per play than most running backs in the league this season. In other words, Urban Meyer deserved to get fired for this egregious decision alone. The Jaguars’ interim head coach was asked about Robinson earlier this week. “James Robinson is our starting running back, and he will be played as such,” interim head coach Darrell Bevell said.
Expect a heavy dose of J-Rob in a great matchup at home against the Houston Texans. The Texans allow the fifth-most DK points to opposing running backs.
Michael Carter ($4,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
The New York Jets will welcome back their rookie running back this week after missing the last three weeks with an ankle injury. Carter is expected to return to a feature role. In 10 games as a rookie, the North Carolina running back averages nearly four yards per carry, along with three catches for 30 yards per game. Considering quarterback Zach Wilson‘s rookie struggles, expect the Jets to lean heavier on Carter than they were, mainly because they have no reason to play him if he wasn’t fully healthy.
Davante Adams ($8,900 DK, $8,500 FD) – 🔒
Cheat code. That’s the only way to describe Adams. Aaron Rodgers would be great with anyone at receiver, but Adams doesn’t get the total amount of credit he deserves for being his top weapon every game. If last week taught us anything, it’s that Matt Lafleur will do whatever it takes to get Adams the ball regularly.
Despite allowing a three-yard touchdown catch to Adams, Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson only gave up two catches for 19 yards on five targets to Adams. When JJ wasn’t guarding Adams, he caught all eight of his targets for 102 yards and another touchdown. Lafleur moved him around and lined him up more in the slot to free him up. After three straight 100-yard receiving games, expect him to get plenty of targets and produce today against the Baltimore Ravens.
DeVante Parker ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD) – 🔒
When Parker is on the field, he’s one of the Miami Dolphins’ top options. Unfortunately, he’s only been healthy for six of the Dolphins’ 13 games this season. However, Parker has snagged at least four passes in each of those games. The Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle (IR/COVID-19 list), making Parker a lock-button play. Waddle averages 8.8 targets and 6.6 catches per game, so this is a big vacancy at a cheap price.
George Kittle ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD)
With so much value available at the running back and receiver spots, spending up for a tight end feels like the best move this week, especially given the position’s weak, cheap options. Kittle has gone bonkers each of the last two weeks. He’s been targeted 27 times and racked up an average of 166 receiving yards with at least one touchdown in each game. Ride the hot hand against Atlanta Falcons in a game the 49ers should score points.
Other Option: Mike Gesicki
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800 DK, $3,600 FD)
Aside from the obvious great matchup against the hapless Houston Texans, we can almost assuredly count on them being a little extra juiced up for this game. Whenever a head coach gets fired before a game, I’m looking to target that defense in fantasy. Motivational factors matter at this stage of the season. Teams like the Chicago Bears are all but ready to pack it in. Meanwhile, The Jaguars are in the same bucket. However, when you give them a reason to play, things get interesting.
Bonus pick: I like the Jaguars on the Moneyline (not a hot take, they’re favorites). I could see a ton of pressure put on Davis Mills and the Texans not only struggling to move the ball but turning it over. I’ll be using them a lot in different parlays.
Other Option: Denver Broncos ($2,900 DK, $4,000 FD)
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @theriot326
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