NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 12 (2021)

NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 12 (2021)

by November 28, 2021 0 comments

And we don’t stop. And we don’t stop. Week 12, baby! Thanksgiving was great. The food was excellent. Spending time with family and friends was second to none. The football? Well, we were forced to watch a low-scoring, messy game between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. Then, we were forced to watch a referee fest between the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. At least with that game, we had a lot of points, and it was a nail-biter that went to overtime. The nightcap? Not so entertaining. The Buffalo Bills ran away with a 31-6 defeat of the New Orleans Saints.  

As quick of a turnaround as it is, we have a healthy dose of 10 games on the DFS main slate for today. With that said, let’s go over some guidelines, followed by the players I’ll be using in Cash Games. 

The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays while also providing options that will help you create optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but the most important part is putting ourselves in the best position to do so. That goes without saying, but it can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week-to-week basis.

People only want to know how many points a guy scored, not necessarily the route they took to get there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. With that said, here are the DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 11. If you’ve been riding with me all along, you know the drill. There will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All the players mentioned in the article are viable for Cash Games, but those with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup(s).

Quarterback

As you can see for the quarterback spot below, I’ve listed a name I like on each site. You can play them on both sites for tournaments, but they are site-specific cash game plays for me, given their salaries. 

Cam Newton ($5,600 DraftKings)

Cam’s rushing upside and the floor it presents make him a great value option, especially on DraftKings, where it’s challenging to save money. Albeit a small sample, since returning to Carolina, he’s rushed for a touchdown in each of his two games and is completing 77 percent of passes. 

This week, Cam and the Carolina Panthers travel to Miami to take on a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game. Cam should be able to find success, and maybe he scores another rushing touchdown. Last week, he ran for 46 yards on ten carries. Including the rushing touchdown, that’s 10.6 DK points from his legs alone. 

Tom Brady ($8,200 FanDuel)

As alluded to, paying up on FanDuel is much easier, and Brady is as safe as it gets. He also has a tremendous amount of upside week in and week out. Playing in a dome at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, this could set up to be a high-scoring affair. Considering the Colts have the second-ranked DVOA run-stopping unit, TB12 will be looking to beat them through the air. 

Although the Colts are excellent against the run, they are only 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Bucs already throw the ball a ton, and they run the second-highest percentage of pass plays in the NFL, and over the last three games, they’ve thrown the ball an insanely high 70% of the time. Bank on Brady getting 300 yards and at least a couple of touchdowns. 

Other Options: Justin Herbert

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD) 🔒

When healthy, Run CMC might be the most fantasy-friendly running back in football. You know he’s going to get five-plus catches and handle nearly all of the carries out of the backfield. The one concern is now with Cam’s return, he could get poached at the goal-line by a Cam rushing touchdown. Regardless, McCaffrey’s mix of floor and ceiling is unmatched at the running back position.  

James Robinson ($6,200 DK, $7,600 FD)

Everyone is talking about Jonathan Taylor, and rightfully so. However, the only player who has come close to Taylor in advanced metrics is Robinson. Let me make this clear. No one is “close” to Taylor. Taylor leads the NFL in with 356 DYAR, and Robinson is second with 195. That’s a massive drop-off from first to second, but it just goes to show what kind of weight class Taylor is in right now. 

When it comes to running back DVOA, Robinson leads the pack by a slim margin over JT (31.4%-31.0%). Third on the list in both DYAR and DVOA is Austin Ekeler, with 144 DYAR and 17.9 percent DVOA. This week, the Jacksonville Jaguars get a winnable game at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who rank 24th in rush defense DVOA and 26th in stuff rate. His price is reasonable enough for me to stick here unless there is some injury news with Aaron Jones, making AJ Dillon my preferred option. 

Myles Gaskin ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD) 🔒

For whatever reason, Gaskin isn’t projected to be a top-five owned running back this week. He continues to get volume both in the running and receiving game. Gaskin got a season-high 23 carries, along with three catches and a receiving touchdown against the New York Jets last week. Instead of dropping down to the inconsistent and sometimes lightly used Miles Sanders, I’d rather find the extra $500 on DraftKings and grab Gaskin. 

Averaging over 15 opportunities per game compared to Sanders’ 13, I’ll fade the ownership of Sanders even in Cash Games. This season, the Carolina Panthers haven’t allowed many touchdowns to running backs, and that keeps their fantasy production against lower. But there has to be some regression at some point, especially when they rank 20th in rush defense DVOA. 

Other Options: AJ Dillon (if Aaron Jones is inactive), Saquon Barkley, Darrell Henderson, Dalvin Cook (FanDuel only)

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD) 🔒

Since I’m probably not playing Brady on DraftKings (for cash games), getting exposure to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers elsewhere becomes imperative. The Bucs project as the highest-scoring team on the slate, and, as aforementioned, they benefit from playing in a dome. Godwin is truly one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league from both a target’s perspective and a production one. He averages 8.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 78.2 receiving yards per game. The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers and fourth-most fantasy points per game. Don’t overthink it. 

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD) 🔒

If we’re targeting the Bucs’ passing attack, why not run it back? The game has the highest Vegas total on the board, and the Bucs do a better job stopping the run than the pass. Bucs cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting returned last week after not playing since Week 1. According to PFF, he could be tasked with covering Pittman the majority of the time, and he has allowed the third-most receiving yards per coverage snap. The last time Pittman was in the $5,000s, he posted a 30.6 DK points performance. Carson Wentz still looks his way quite a bit, so this is a great time to jump back on.

Other Options: Diontae Johnson, Elijah Moore, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen (FanDuel) 

Tight End

Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD)

Goedert is a mid-tier priced option getting heavy volume since Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Excluding the game against the Denver Broncos, where he left early with a head injury, Goedert has averaged 6.5 targets per game since Ertz was traded. It’s safe to assume he’ll get a healthy dose again today. 

Jared Cook ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Here’s your punt option of the week at tight end. Cook struggles at times with drops. Look to last week’s Sunday Night Football game for evidence. Despite that, he remains a consistent part of the Chargers’ offense with five targets and three catches per game for the season. If he catches three passes for 30 yards, he will pay off his price tag at only $3,000. The Denver Broncos have allowed the fewest DK points per game to opposing tight ends, but it’s a struggle bus this week to find value. I’d rather punt at a volatile position than give up safer high-end options at other spots.  

Other Options: Tyler Conklin, Pat Freiermuth 

Defense/Special Teams

Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,200 DraftKings)

This season, the Jags pass defense has been atrocious, ranking second-worst in DVOA and dead last in adjusted sack rate. Nonetheless, Matt Ryan has been coughing up the football. Over his last five games, he’s thrown seven interceptions and fumbled three times. In three of the previous four games, he’s thrown at least two interceptions. Maybe the Jags come to play as they did against Josh Allen in Week 9. 

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,300 FanDuel) 

Big Ben Roethlisberger showed last week that he’s still somewhat capable, throwing for 273 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. However, he’s still only gone over 300 yards once this season and the Bengals fit as a dirt-cheap value play on FanDuel. The Bengals are also a top-ten unit in sacks per game and Big Ben is a statue. 

Other Options: Houston Texans 


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