NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 11 (2021)by Joe Ricotta November 21, 2021 1 comment
Welcome back. We have reached the point in the season where I begin ramping up my cash game contest volume. Every week is a decent week to play cash game contests. However, through 10 weeks of football and all of the data we can apply, you start to feel better about your process. With that said, let’s get a few guidelines out of the way, followed by the picks.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays while also providing options that will help you create optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but the most important part is putting ourselves in the best position to do so. That goes without saying, but it can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week-to-week basis.
People only want to know how many points a guy scored, not necessarily the route they took to get there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. With that said, here are the DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 11. If you’ve been riding with me all along, you know the drill. There will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All the players mentioned in the article are viable for Cash Games, but those with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup(s).
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Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DK, $8,300 FD)
I’ll expand on this more when we get to running back, but there are a lot of good value choices at that position, making it viable to spend more on a quarterback. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs got back on track last week as he threw for over 400 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was by far his best game of the season. Now that they are figuring it out, the Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate. Playing against another offense in the Dallas Cowboys that should put up plenty of points, it’s a perfect time to jump back on. The Cowboys should force the Chiefs to keep their foot on the gas.
Derek Carr ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD)
If you don’t want to pay up at quarterback, Carr is one of the best value options. Outside of the Kansas City and Dallas game, the Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals game is the only other with a Vegas Over/Under above 50 points. Carr is having a good campaign, throwing for two touchdowns in seven of nine games and at least 296 yards in six games. While the Bengals have an improved defense, they struggle more through the air, ranking 21st in pass DVOA. In lineups where I can’t afford Mahomes, Carr is fine consolation.
AJ Dillon ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD) – 🔒
As the projected most-rostered running back on the slate, leaving Dillon off your cash game lineups might not be the best strategy. Filling in for the injured Aaron Jones, Dillon received a ton of usage when Jones exited last week’s contest. The injury to Jones was out of nowhere, but Dillon already saw a decent amount of work as a change of pace back. Last week, Dillon only averaged 3.14 yards per carry, but he was handed the ball 21 times and scored two touchdowns. Additionally, Aaron Rodgers has shown a willingness to target him in the passing game. Over the last two games, Dillon has caught all six of the passes thrown his way for 106 yards. Bank on another high-volume game from Dillon in a decent matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
Mark Ingram ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD) –🔒
Ingram lived up to the hype last week, garnering a ton of work in the passing game and falling into the endzone. He caught four of seven passes thrown in his direction for 61 yards, and he played 85 percent of the offensive snaps. Once again, Ingram should see plenty of passes and get the bulk of the carries out of the backfield. This time, he gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied for fourth-worst with 68 receptions allowed to opposing running backs. His price should’ve increased a tad more than this. I’m locking Dillon in.
Davante Adams ($8,400 DK and FD) –🔒
Should we set it and forget it? Although Dillon is locked into my lineups, Adams is even more of a lock. The entire offense should run through both players, and Adams’ target share remains outrageously high. Adams ranks third in the NFL with 98 targets, and he’s tied with Keenan Allen for third in catches (65). The only reason Adams hasn’t been a better fantasy option this season is his lack of touchdowns. Last year, Adams had 18 touchdowns, and this year he has only three. I’d expect that to turn around sooner rather than later. Give me the guaranteed points.
Michael Gallup ($4,200 DK, $5,400 FD) –🔒
On Friday, we got breaking news about Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper. The team announced they were placing him on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and he will be out for Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Gallup is already a solid option as a tertiary weapon in this Cowboys’ offense. Without Cooper, this opens the door for Gallup in a potentially high-scoring affair against the Chiefs. Gallup returned last week after missing seven games due to a calf strain. Although he only caught three passes for 42 yards, he looked good and got through the game without setbacks.
Kansas City hasn’t been the juiciest matchup from a fantasy standpoint for wide receivers, but they sit 27th in defense pass DVOA. Also, Gallup represents the cheapest exposure to the highest Vegas Over/Under on the board. You can fade him in tournaments, but he’s a stone-cold lock for me in cash games.
Tight end is arguably the most boring NFL DFS position, outside of Defense/Special Teams, of course. Finding value on sites like DraftKings makes the most sense. Because of having more salary flexibility on sites like FanDuel, spending up on a tight end that could be a difference-maker is more logical. For those reasons, I’ve listed a tight end I like for each site.
Cole Kmet ($3,400 DraftKings)
Kmet was a highly talked about and often overhyped fantasy sleeper before the season. Kmet is talented, no doubt. After weeks of the Bears offense looking like a disaster and head coach Matt Nagy not getting his tight ends involved at all, Kmet is finally surfacing as a sound weapon. Working against him is how good of a blocker he’s been and how much the Bears have needed him to step up in that regard.
However, looking at his recent game logs, Kmet has at least four targets in each of his last five games. Furthermore, his previous game was the best of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Justin Fields was finding him. Kmet caught six passes for 87 yards. Considering Allen Robinson was downgraded to doubtful for this game, Kmet could be in store for as much or more usage today.
Darren Waller ($6,700 FD)
Here’s your FanDuel difference-maker. If you decide to pay up at tight end on DraftKings, Waller is fine over there, and he’ll be a popular option. However, on sites such as FanDuel, he’s much more feasible. Waller averages nearly nine targets and 62 receiving yards per game despite his surface stats not looking as impressive. Rolling with a bit of narrative, Waller only has two touchdowns on the season, and he hasn’t scored since Week 4. Carr and Waller connected last week for a touchdown, but it was called back due to a holding penalty. I think they hook up for one that counts today.
Carolina Panthers ($2,700 DK, $4,100 FD)
The Panthers received a boost of energy with Cam Newton‘s return to town. Now, they get a home matchup against a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington Football Team. Give them credit. They defeated the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. That said, this is still the same quarterback who has thrown an interception in six of his nine games this season. Also, that Tampa Bay game was coming off a bye week, and this Panthers defense ranks second in pass DVOA.
Other Options: Cleveland Browns, Washington Football Team
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