Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falconsby Mike Fanelli November 18, 2021 0 comments
Tonight we have a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Mac Jones Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Last week Jones had arguably the best game of the season, throwing a career-high three touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns. However, he threw for only 198 yards in the win. It was the second week in a row and third time this season that Jones threw for under 200 yards. More importantly, Jones has averaged only 233.3 passing yards per game, throwing for under 235 yards in over half the contests this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have held quarterbacks to 255.9 fantasy points per game this season, giving up under 200 passing yards in three of their past five games. The Patriots should lean on the running game tonight, further limiting Jones’ passing upside.
Kyle Pitts Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The rookie tight end has played well this season, averaging 67.3 receiving yards per game. However, he has finished with over 65 receiving yards in only a third of the games this season. More importantly, Pitts has finished with under 62 receiving yards in five of the past seven contests. Meanwhile, the Patriots have held tight ends to only 29.5 receiving yards per game this season, the fewest in the NFL. They have held tight ends under 55 receiving yards in all but one game this season, including four games in a row. The Patriots have a history of taking away the opposing team’s best player. With Calvin Ridley out for this game, expect Pitts to have a quiet performance.
Damien Harris to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)
While he missed last week’s game with a concussion, Harris will start tonight for the Patriots. He has seven rushing touchdowns this season, including at least one in five straight games. Since Week 5, Harris has averaged a rushing touchdown once every 14 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Falcons have given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season with nine. They have given up at least one rushing touchdown to running backs six of their past seven games, including four rushing touchdowns over the past three weeks. Harris is a critical part of the offense. With the matchup against a struggle Atlanta run defense, Harris should score at least once, if not twice, tonight.
Matt Ryan Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After throwing for over 330 passing yards in back-to-back games, Ryan has struggled over the past three weeks. He has averaged 252.7 passing yards per game, throwing for under 150 yards in two of those three contests. More importantly, Ryan has averaged only 202 passing yards per game this season, throwing for at least 250 yards in just over half the games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have held quarterbacks to only 236.8 passing yards per game this season. Over the past three weeks, the Patriots have shut down passing attacks, giving up only 183 passing yards per game. Furthermore, the Patriots recently held Justin Herbert to only 223 passing yards. They should have no trouble keeping Ryan under 250 passing yards in this contest.
Kendrick Bourne Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When the Patriots signed Bourne in the offseason, many didn’t think much of the move. However, Bourne has been the most consistent wide receiver on the team this season. He has averaged 52 receiving yards per game this season, most on the team. Bourne has finished with at least 34 receiving yards in all but three games this season, including seven of the past eight contests. Meanwhile, the Falcons have given up an average of 153.9 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. Last week the Falcons gave up 28 or more receiving yards to four different Dallas Cowboy wide receivers. Bourne has averaged 15.8 yards per reception this season. All it will take is three receptions tonight for Bourne to hit the over on this prop bet.
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