NFL DFS: Dart Throws and Pivots for Week 9 (2021)by Joe Ricotta November 7, 2021 1 comment
One of my favorite activities to take part in at bars, other than drinking, of course, is playing darts. With the current state of everything, maybe your dartboard is set up in your man cave at home. At any rate, throwing darts takes precision aim. If you hit the bullseye or triple-20, you’re sitting pretty.
The same concept applies when it comes to taking down large-field tournaments, otherwise known as GPPs. Sometimes you have to get a little weird and go off the radar. You don’t have to get all of these guys in your lineup, but one or two could be incredibly beneficial, and it could also fail miserably. But if you’re playing in a tournament like the Milly Maker on DraftKings, you’re going to need to get creative and use at least one low-owned player, and most of the time, two. Without further ado, let’s get to some Dart Throws and Pivots that might help us take home (or bring up from the basement) a ton of money.
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,300 DK, $7,100 FD)
Teddy Two Gloves doesn’t jump off the page in many projections, and he certainly doesn’t have the most upside of the quarterbacks to choose from this week. With that said, he’s one of the cheapest options on DraftKings, and he’s only three weeks removed from his highest scoring output of the season. In a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, he racked up 334 yards and 25.3 DK points. This week, the Denver Broncos will take on the Dallas Cowboys in a dome as big underdogs. Teddy could be forced to throw, and he has some excellent pairing options to stack with – Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton being my favorites.
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
Herbert falls into a weird spot when you look at quarterback pricing. He’s one of the most expensive options, yet he doesn’t have the rushing upside Lamar Jackson does. He doesn’t have the ultimate smash spot matchup that Josh Allen does. Therefore, he’s probably going to be lower-owned than both of those two, and most likely, a few others as well. Herbert has as high of a ceiling as almost anyone at the position. Last year, Herbert put up a lot of high-scoring fantasy games. This year, he really has only had two; a 45-burger in Week 5 and a 30.8 performance in Week 3. It feels like he’s due. I’m planting my flag on Herbert and Chargers stacks this week.
Javonte Williams ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD)
Let’s say this is the week Williams gets noticeably more usage than Melvin Gordon. Pretend it could happen. Let’s also pretend the Broncos make this game against the Cowboys somewhat competitive. In theory, both things could happen. Now, let’s take another stroll down narrative street – Gordon put out an interesting tweet right after Von Miller was traded. There was some speculation that maybe Gordon was on his way out the door as well. That turned out not to be the case. However, who knows if the front office wants their rookie to get work than a disgruntled player who spoke out? Perhaps. Williams could have the sneakiest big game on the slate. I wouldn’t go overboard and play him in too many lineups, but I’ll take a shot in the Milly Maker.
Aaron Jones ($7,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
I do not understand this one. How is Jones projected to be less than 10 percent owned? Sure, Jordan Love will be making his first career start for the Green Bay Packers, not Aaron Rodgers. Doesn’t that mean Jones will be heavily involved, especially in the short passing game? The Kansas City Chiefs defense is inexplicably horrible. They rank 31st in total defense DVOA, 29th in rush DVOA, and 30th in pass DVOA. Jones could be in store for one of his patented slate-breaking performances.
Jamal Agnew ($4,300 DK, $5,200 FD)
Projected to get almost zero ownership, Agnew is one of this week’s ugly ducklings. If you’re running some Allen and Buffalo Bills stacks (which would be wise), consider running it back with one or two Jacksonville Jaguars. Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Dan Arnold pop up as the better options, but Agnew’s recent performance might get rewarded by Urban Meyer. Over the last three games, he’s been targeted 25 times and caught 17 passes for 157 yards, including a touchdown.
Mike Williams ($7,100 DK, 7,300 FD)
Herbert has two games this season with four touchdown passes thrown. In Week 5, he racked up almost 400 yards and finished with 45.8 DK points. In Week 3, he threw for nearly 300 yards and had 30.8 DK points. Williams had two touchdowns, over 120 yards receiving, and at least 36 DK points in each of those games. Needless to say, there’s a direct correlation with Williams and Herbert having massive games. Since I really like Herbert as a solid pivot option, and that game projects to be one of the fastest in pace of play, I really like Williams. Don’t be fooled by his recent low aDOT. Big Mike can still get downfield and is a big play waiting to happen.
Jared Cook ($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD)
Although Keenan Allen gets the most Red Zone targets on the team, Herbert looks Cook’s way often. Cook is third on the team in Red Zone targets, and the Eagles are susceptible to giving up plays to opposing tight ends. The Eagles have allowed the most catches and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Cook averages about 5.4 targets per game and has two touchdowns this season. He could easily grab his third today.
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK, $7,800 FD)
Kelce is coming off one of his worst games in a long time. He dropped a ball that would’ve gotten average tight ends like Evan Engram absolutely crushed by the media. Maybe he had one too many cocktails on Halloween? Also, James Bradberry did a solid job covering him. If you look at his DK points game by game, he hasn’t had as many “damn, why didn’t I play more Travis Kelce(?)” games. It’s going to happen sooner or later. It’s better to be early on these things. Paying up for Kelce is an easy leverage opportunity when everyone is paying down at the tight end spot for guys like Albert Okwuegbunam.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles
As you can tell by now, I’m on a few players from this game. I like stacks on both sides of the coin. Single stacks, double stacks, bring backs, whatever your heart desires. For the Chargers, Herbert to Williams is my favorite solo stack. I’ll also include Allen, Ekeler, and Cook in solo and double stacks.
The Eagles’ side shouldn’t get overlooked, either. Hurts is an option, but also one or two of his pass-catchers are fine as bring-back options. Goedert and DeVonta Smith are the two I have the most exposure to.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson won’t be a secret. He’ll be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, especially in cash games. However, we can still get creative with how we stack him up. Typically, using single stacks is the best strategy because of his rushing upside and the way he steals touchdowns away from his teammates. This could be a week where double stacks make the most sense. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews will carry some ownership, but Bateman might be low-owned because of some injury concerns. That’s precisely the type of situation I’m looking to exploit. Double-stack Bateman with either Brown or Andrews and I think we’re in business.
Flipping over to the Minnesota side, Kirk Cousins and his pass-catchers are projecting very low-ownership percentages. Jefferson has an insanely high ceiling, as does Thielen. My favorite cash game tight end option is Tyler Conklin, and Cook is always in play. We could go several different ways with the Vikings here. Bateman is my favorite run-back option. His price will allow you to stack this game and fit in some chalkier options from other games.
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