Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for SNF: Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ersby Mike Fanelli October 24, 2021 0 comments
Tonight we have a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Deebo Samuel Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Only a few wide receivers have been more impressive than Samuel this season. After battling with injuries last year, Samuel has averaged 109.6 receiving yards per game this year. He has finished with at least 52 receiving yards in every game this season, totaling 90 or more in 60 percent of his contests. More importantly, Samuel has averaged 10.4 targets per game this season, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up the receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed wide receivers to average 170.5 receiving yards per game this season. Last week they gave up 89 receiving yards to Brandin Cooks and 125 to Marquise Brown in Week 5. Samuel will have no trouble finishing with 60 or more receiving yards in this game.
Carson Wentz Over 198.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After a disappointing 2020 season, Wentz has bounced back this season. He has averaged 257.5 passing yards per game, throwing for 220 or more in all but one game. More importantly, Wentz has averaged 284.3 passing yards per game over the past three weeks. During that span, Wentz has completed 69 percent of his pass attempts. Meanwhile, the 49ers have given up an average of 235.4 passing yards per game this season, giving up 235 or more in 60 percent of their contests. While Wentz won’t have T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell tonight, Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal should have their way with the San Francisco secondary. Bettors should expect at least 230 passing yards tonight from Wentz.
Ross Dwelley Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With George Kittle on injured reserve, Dwelley has stepped up in his place. In his first start of the season, Dwelley played 91 percent of the snaps. He was off the field for only six plays, finishing the game with two receptions for 25 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, giving up 62.3 receiving yards per game. They have given up at least 37 receiving yards to tight ends in all but one game this season. Over the past three weeks, tight ends have averaged 8.7 receptions for 90.7 receiving yards per game against the Colts. While Dwelley won’t finish the game with 90 receiving yards, he will finish with at least 30 receiving yards.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
Last week, Hilton made his season debut and finished the game with 80 receiving yards on four targets. Unfortunately for Pittman, Hilton’s return limited his target share, as he saw a season-low three targets last week. However, with Hilton out for tonight’s game, Pittman will turn back into Wentz’s favorite target. In his past four games with Hilton on injured reserve, Pittman averaged 6.5 receptions on 9.8 targets per game, finishing with at least six receptions in each of those contests. Meanwhile, the 49ers have given up an average of 12.6 receptions per game to wide receivers this season. More importantly, they have given up an average of 7.3 receptions to No. 1 wide receivers over their past three games. Pittman should hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 202.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While Garoppolo missed the Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals with a calf injury, he will start tonight’s game. Garoppolo has averaged 253.3 passing yards per game in his three healthy games this season, throwing for 255 or more in two of them. Furthermore, Garoppolo threw for 165 passing yards in only one-half of play against the Seattle Seahawks before suffering the calf injury. Meanwhile, the Colts have given up an average of 268.8 passing yards per game this season. Over the past two weeks, quarterbacks have averaged 342.5 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game against the Colts. While Garoppolo won’t throw for over 300 yards tonight, he will hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
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