Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Brownsby Mike Fanelli October 21, 2021 0 comments
Tonight we have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Courtland Sutton Over 5.5 Receptions (+125)
With Jerry Jeudy on injured reserve with an ankle injury, Sutton has stepped up for the Broncos. In the five games without Jeudy this season, Sutton has averaged 6.4 receptions per game, totaling five or more in all but one game. More importantly, Sutton has averaged 10 targets per game since Jeudy’s injury, including 11 or more in three of the five contests. Meanwhile, the Browns have allowed wide receivers to average 13.2 receptions per game this season. However, wide receivers have averaged 17 receptions per game against the Browns over the past two weeks. Sutton has turned into Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to target. He should hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
Case Keenum Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-195)
Yesterday the Browns announced that Baker Mayfield would miss tonight’s game after re-injuring his left shoulder last week. Replacing Mayfield will be Keenum. However, Keenum hasn’t started a game since 2019 and is a career backup. In the 10 games he played in 2019, Keenum had under 1.5 passing touchdowns in six of them. Furthermore, he averaged only 1.1 passing touchdowns per game that season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have given up the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns this season, giving up only 1.2 per game. They have held quarterbacks to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in 67 percent of their games this season. With limited practice time and injuries impacting his supporting cast, Keenum will be lucky to throw one touchdown tonight, let alone two.
Javonte Williams Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
While Williams is in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon, the rookie has been the better running back this season. Over the past three weeks, Williams has averaged 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. More importantly, Williams has averaged 50 rushing yards per game this season on only 10.8 rushing attempts per game. Despite only 26 rushing attempts over the past three weeks, Williams has averaged 54 rushing yards per game, totaling 48 or more in every contest. Meanwhile, the Browns have been destroyed by running backs over the past two weeks, giving up an average of 107 rushing yards per game, including a season-high 131 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals last week. Williams should have no trouble finishing tonight’s game with over 70 rushing yards.
D’Ernest Johnson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Unfortunately for the Browns, their star running backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will miss tonight’s game with calf injuries. The next man up is Johnson, who has only 198 career rushing yards. However, Johnson has averaged five yards per rushing attempt in his career. Furthermore, in his only game with over eight rushing attempts in his career, Johnson had 95 rushing yards and averaged 7.3 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Broncos have struggled to slow down running backs over the past three weeks, allowing an average of 101 rushing yards per game, giving up 74 or more in every contest. With a backup quarterback under center, expect the Browns to lean heavily on Johnson and the running game tonight.
Courtland Sutton to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Not only will Sutton finish this game with over 5.5 receptions, but he will also find the end zone. Over the past two weeks, Sutton has averaged 12.5 targets per game, seeing at least 11 in both contests. More importantly, he has scored a touchdown in both games. Meanwhile, the Browns have given up the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season, giving up 1.5 per contest. However, they have been brutally bad at defending wide receivers over the past two weeks. During that span, the Browns have given up six receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, giving up a season-high four last week to the Cardinals on only 16 receptions. Between his recent play and the Browns’ struggles, Sutton is more likely to score twice tonight than not at all.
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