NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 4 (2021)by Joe Ricotta October 3, 2021 0 comments
Welcome to the Week 4 NFL DFS main slate! Before we dive into the Cash Game picks, let’s get a few guidelines and introductions out of the way first.
The “Cash Game Plays” weekly DFS article has been my bread and butter for the past few years. Evolving a little over the years, I now play almost as many tournaments as I do cash game contests.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but the most important part is putting ourselves in the best position to do so. That goes without saying, but it can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week-to-week basis.
People only want to know how many points a guy scored, not necessarily the route they got there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it.
With that said, here are the DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 4. Sticking with what I’ve been doing the last couple of years, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All the players mentioned in the article are viable for Cash Games, but those with that lock emoji will be fixures in my main lineup(s).
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD)
By all accounts, Prescott is primed to be one of the highest rostered quarterbacks on the slate, and it’s for good reason. The Cowboys/Panthers game has one of the highest totals on the board. Carolina has the best-ranked defense in terms of pass DVOA. However, they’ve played the Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, and the New York Jets. Not exactly the best competition. Prescott is elite, and he has not been priced as such. Also, the Cowboys are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL. If you feel like spending up at QB, Dak is your guy.
Sam Darnold ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD)
On the flip side, Darnold will need to chuck it around to keep up with Prescott and America’s Team. In his short time with the Panthers, Darnold has been solid under head coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers are 3-0 while Darnold has career-highs in passer rating and completion percentage and has thrown for 300 yards in each of the last two games. The Cowboys can get torched through the air, allowing the second-most passing yards per game. It feels weird to say, but I like Darnold as a high-floor option this week.
Derrick Henry ($8,800 DK, $10,200 FD) – 🔒
Just when we thought King Henry was a one-dimensional ground and pound running back, the Titans pull the wool over our eyes and start to feed him targets. Through three weeks, he’s averaging over four targets per game. Oh, and by the way, he’s still an elite rusher with over 100 yards rushing in each of his last two games. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones already ruled out with injuries, this will be the King Henry show. Fire him up with confidence in Cash Games.
David Montgomery ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD) – 🔒
Of course, the Chicago Bears offense has been gross and borderline unwatchable. Understandably, that could push you away from using any of their players in fantasy this week and moving forward. However, pricing is the name of the game when it comes to DFS. Pricing and volume. Monty is highly affordable, and he continues to get a ton of work – both as a rusher and pass-catcher. If it’s one thing we can be sure of, the Bears need to find a way to lean on their running back with rookie Justin Fields taking center once again behind a bad offensive line. Will Matt Nagy’s playcalling improve? Will he even be the one calling plays? Who knows? The only certainty is the Detroit Lions rank 26th in rush DVOA, and this is a spot the Bears can exploit if they choose.
Mike Davis ($5,100 DK, $5,400 FD) – 🔒
Despite their woeful start to the season defensively, the Washington Football Team has talent on that side of the ball. With that said, Matt Ryan could find himself feeling the heat and getting hurried by the number four ranked defensive unit in pressure rate. What does that mean for Davis and his outlook? It could mean a lot of check-down targets for a player with the eighth-highest snap share out of all running backs this season. His floor is high enough to buy in for the price, and he should have positive touchdown regression coming.
Davante Adams ($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD)
The Green Bay Packers placed Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the injured reserve. As if Aaron Rodgers needed another reason to throw Adams the ball. Rodgers and Adams are up to their usual tricks after a lackluster Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. The eighth-year wideout again has a 30-plus percent team target share, along with a disproportionate 58 percent share he saw in Week 3. In each of the past two weeks, he’s caught at least eight passes with 120-plus receiving yards. Pittsburgh has been stout against the run, but through the air, they rank 23rd in pass DVOA. If you can afford him, he’s a great option.
Amari Cooper ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD) – 🔒
Cooper is possibly the best points per dollar play at wide receiver this week. $6,000 on DraftKings is an egregious misprice, in my opinion. On FanDuel, I have no issues if you want to grab D.J. Moore instead if you have to choose. If Dak’s having a good game through the air (which is more times than not), it’s either CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper that usually benefits. Give the cheaper option of the two. Lamb is fine on FanDuel, but I’d prefer Moore over him on that site as well.
Robert Woods ($5,300 DK, $6,200 FD) – 🔒
Hello, Bobby Trees. Although many fantasy team managers seem to think Cooper Kupp is chopping down Bobby’s chances of being a valuable fantasy asset this season, allow me to put you at ease. IT’S BEEN THREE WEEKS OF FOOTBALL, and there’s still plenty of room for Woods to make a significant impact. Additionally, there’s plenty of games left to be played. Just because Kupp and Matthew Stafford have built up an incredible rapport right from the jump doesn’t mean Stafford and Woods won’t, especially when you consider how opponents will now gameplan to take away Stafford’s number one option. I love him at this price in a game against the Arizona Cardinals that boasts the highest Vegas Over/Under on the slate.
Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK, $8,200 FD)
He’s the best. Is that a good enough reason? How about his floor so far this season is 20.4 DraftKings points? Good enough for me. If you can pay his lofty price, which is easier to do on FanDuel than DraftKings, do it and feel good about it.
Evan Engram ($3,000 DK, $5,100 FD)
Sure, it feels nasty, and it feels downright disgusting. But, we need to save salary somewhere. Why not at tight end? Travis Kelce is unquestionably the top option, but Engram is in a good spot and will allow you to spend up for the running backs and receivers. With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out with injuries, Engram returns just in the nick of time for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Making his season debut last week, he played 56 percent of the snaps and was targeted six times. That’ll play, and I only expect the snaps and routes to increase.
Atlanta Falcons ($2,300 DK, $3,600 FD)
This defense isn’t good, but they have faced a top-ten strength of schedule so far when it comes to opposing offense DVOA. They were able to hold the New York Giants to only 14 points while registering two sacks last week. The Falcons will be playing at home against a relatively unproven starting quarterback in Taylor Heinicke, who threw two interceptions last week. Don’t expect crazy fantasy numbers from this unit, but they could be serviceable.
New York Jets ($2,000 DK, $3,000 FD)
Traditionally, playing a defense directly against one of your running backs isn’t the best strategy. However, it’s okay when they are the bare minimum salary on DraftKings. I believe Henry will have a good game and see a ton of volume, but the Titans’ offense could be limited without their big gun wide receivers. That alone gives the Jets a decent floor with potential for turnovers against less talented wide receivers in coverage.
Other Options: Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions
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