Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengalsby Mike Fanelli September 30, 2021 0 comments
Tonight we have a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Joe Mixon Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After an injury-filled 2020 season, Mixon has started this year on fire. Over the first three weeks, Mixon is averaging 95.3 rushing yards per game, finishing with 90 or more in two of them. Furthermore, Mixon is averaging 22.3 rushing attempts per game. By comparison, Joe Burrow is averaging only 25 pass attempts per game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have struggled to slow down running backs this season. Running backs have averaged 28.3 rushing attempts for 94.7 rushing yards per game against the Jaguars. Furthermore, the Jaguars have been blown out in every game, leading to an uptick in rushing attempts in the second half. Mixon is the focal point of the Cincinnati offense and should hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
James Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)
Robinson has caught 12 of his 15 targets this season, finishing with at least three receptions in every game. Furthermore, Robinson is averaging four receptions per game this year and had a season-high six last week against the Arizona Cardinals. More importantly, Robinson has 15 targets compared to four for Carlos Hyde this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals have given up the most receptions to running backs this season, including 14 last week to Najee Harris. Furthermore, the Bengals have given up an average of 10.3 receptions per game to running backs, including 11 or more receptions in two of their three contests. The Jaguars will be playing from behind in the second half, leading to plenty of receptions for Robinson.
Ja’Marr Chase to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Three games into his NFL career, Chase has turned into a touchdown machine, scoring. He has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season. Furthermore, his four touchdowns are the second-most in the NFL and have counted for over 50 percent of Burrow’s touchdown passes this year. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have given up a receiving touchdown to wide receivers in two of three games this season, giving one to Danny Amendola in Week 1 and Tim Patrick in Week 2. More importantly, Chase has repeatedly found the end zone despite seeing only 16 targets this season, catching a touchdown once every four targets. Chase is the best wide receiver the Jaguars have faced this season and is more likely to score twice tonight than not at all.
Marvin Jones Over 5.5 Receptions (+125)
In the offseason, the Jaguars added Jones to lead their young wide receiver core. This season, Jones leads the team in receptions (17), targets (28), receiving yards (194), and receiving touchdowns (two). More importantly, Jones has averaged 5.7 receptions per game this season, finishing with six or more in two of his three games. Furthermore, Jones has at least eight targets in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals have given up the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers this season, allowing 17 per game. Moreover, wide receivers have finished with 20 or more receptions in two of three games against the Bengals this season. While it has been six years since Jones played for the Bengals, expect him to play with a little extra motivation tonight.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170)
Despite averaging only 25 pass attempts per game this season, Burrow is tied for fifth in the NFL with seven passing touchdowns. Furthermore, Burrow had a season-high three passing touchdowns last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers despite a season-low 18 pass attempts. More importantly, Burrow has two or more passing touchdowns in every game this season and over half of his career contests. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville defense has struggled to defend the pass, giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game in 2021. More importantly, the Jaguars have given up two passing touchdowns in two of three games this season. With Chase and his other wide receivers at his disposal, Burrow should hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
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