NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 3by Joe Ricotta September 26, 2021 0 comments
Welcome to the Week 3 NFL DFS main slate! Before we dive into the picks, let’s get a few guidelines and introductions out of the way first.
The “Cash Game Plays” weekly DFS article has been my bread and butter for the past few years. Evolving a little over the years, I now play almost as many tournaments as I do cash game contests.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but the most important part is putting ourselves in the best position to do so. That goes without saying, but it can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week-to-week basis.
People only want to know how many points a guy scored, not necessarily the route they got there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it.
With that said, here are the DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 3. Sticking with what I’ve been doing the last couple of years, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All of the players mentioned in the article are viable for Cash Games, but those with that lock emoji will be fixures in my main lineup(s).
Justin Herbert ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD)
Herbert will take on a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA with a combined 72.22 completion percent allowed to Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. The game has a 54.5 Over/Under, and if we know anything about the Chiefs’ offense, it’s that they can put up a ton of points. Herbert will need to keep his foot on the gas in this one, setting up a potentially high-scoring affair. Despite the lack of touchdowns this year, Herbert has thrown for at least 337 passing yards in each of the first two games.
Justin Fields ($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD)
In his first career start, we have no idea what to expect from Mr. Fields and the Bears’ offense. However, it’s safe to assume he’ll get outside of the pocket and scramble a few times. Relieving Andy Dalton in his first significant amount of regular-season action last week, Fields rushed for 31 yards on 10 carries. Over his college career, Fields rushed for over 1,100 yards and 19 touchdowns. Last week, Fields completed only six of 13 passes for 60 yards and an interception with a 46.15 completion rate.
His stat line would’ve looked much better had it not been for a couple of well-thrown dropped passes, including a 35-yard would-be touchdown to Allen Robinson. Had Robinson caught the ball, Fields’ 27.7 passer rating would’ve been 71.0. He’s still a rookie making his first career start on the road, but his rushing floor and passing upside make him a solid value. Let’s roster Justin and hope he has a “Fields Day” against Cleveland.
Saquon Barkley ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)
Barkley has been a dud to this point. The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year has been eased into action in his return from last season’s torn ACL. Through the first two games of the year, Barkley only has 83 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards. The encouraging part? He played 58 snaps in Week 2 after only 29 in Week 1, and now he’ll be playing on 10 days of rest since the Giants’ last game against Washington last Thursday night. Would it surprise anyone if the Giants got their franchise running back going against the Atlanta Falcons, allowing 4.9 yards per carry? This could be the lowest price we get Barkley all season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,800 DK, $6,500 FD) – 🔒
For season-long and dynasty leagues, I’ve mostly been avoiding CEH. However, he’s underpriced this week, given his usage and role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Has he been bad? Sure. But it wouldn’t shock me if Andy Reid makes it a point to get him going. CEH holds a nice 69 percent snap share with a 30.2 percent total market share of touches, just below Najee Harris (32.2 percent), who’s received a ton of hype because of his usage. The Chargers have been susceptible to yards on the ground, allowing the second-most yards per carry so far (5.6). Markets shift all the time. I’m not any higher on CEH than I was a week ago, but this strikes me as a solid buy-low opportunity.
Cooper Kupp ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD)
Stafford has established his favorite target in Los Angeles. Kupp and Stafford have already connected 16 times for 271 yards and three touchdowns through two games. Kupp is barely leaving the field as he’s played 97 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season, ranking second in the NFL among wide receivers to only Terry McLaurin. Although his price has increased, it remains reasonable. To top it off, the Bucs rank third-worst in passing yards per game allowed (342 yards). He’ll be extremely popular, but Kupp is a great option, especially on PPR sites like DraftKings.
Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD) – 🔒
Godwin is already an integral part of the Bucs’ offense, but with the confirmation that Antonio Brown will not play, his usage is guaranteed. His 23.46 percent team target share leads the team. Godwin does this while running many routes out of the slot, which could help him avoid Jalen Ramsey, although he has been defending more slot receivers of late. Nonetheless, Godwin should be heavily targeted in a game with the highest total on the board.
K.J. Osborn ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD) – 🔒
Osborn has virtually come out of nowhere from what looked to be a very condensed target share in Minnesota between Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Over the first two weeks of the season, Osborn has at least five catches, 76 receiving yards, and six targets in each game. Enhancing what our eyes are telling us, Osborn played zero snaps on special teams in Week 2 after playing nine in Week 1. That tells me the coaching staff is relying on and expecting him to make more of an impact on offense.
Travis Kelce ($8,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
Do I really need to explain this one? Kelce is the best receiving tight end in the league, and his floor so far this season is 25.6 DK points. I realize that’s not his actual floor, but it’s not too much lower than that. Patrick Mahomes is hitting him on shorter patterns with a lower ADOT (5.5), which has allowed him to net his highest yards-after-catch per reception dating back to before 2018.
T.J. Hockenson ($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD)
Hockenson has become Jared Goff‘s number one receiver. Through two weeks of football, Hock is second among all tight ends with 20 targets. Making the most of his opportunities, he’s turned them into 16 catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions are 7.5 point underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens at home with a high Over/Under. Hockenson once again projects well in a potential points chasing scenario. If you need salary relief at the tight end spot and can’t afford Kelce, he’s a great mid-range option.
Tennessee Titans ($2,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
Despite suffering two ankle sprains, it sounds like Carson Wentz will give it a go. Don’t be fooled. This could still be a trainwreck. Who knows whether or not he’ll be able to finish the game, and the ankle injuries could turn him into a statue in the pocket. The Titans’ defense hasn’t been good, allowing at least 30 points in each of their first two games. However, they are cheap, and this could be a prime turnaround spot.
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,100 DK, $3,400 FD)
At 39-years-old, Ben Roethlisberger seems to be on the decline. Through two weeks, he’s below average in completion percentage and adjusted yards per attempt. At almost the bare minimum salary on DraftKings, the Bengals should be able to hold water, especially with Diontae Johnson ruled out.
Good luck! Let’s win some cash, and stay tuned for my DFS tournament article.
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @theriot326
Main Image Credit: Embed from Getty Images