Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: AFC West ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepers

Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: AFC West ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepers

by August 21, 2021 0 comments

Football is back! With the preseason underway, fantasy players are doing mock drafts hourly (or maybe it’s just me) to prepare for their fantasy drafts. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. In the final part of an eight-part series, I will look over the AFC West and provide ADP values, likely to bust candidates and potential sleepers.

Players ADP is from Fantasy Pro’s PPR ADP.

Be sure to check out all eight parts of Fanelli’s ADP values, busts, and sleepers series.

Values

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (RB28, 68.7 ADP)

The Broncos running back duo of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay combined 333 rushing attempts last season. While Gordon is still currently on the roster, Lindsay is now a member of the Houston Texans. Furthermore, the Broncos traded up on draft night to secure Williams. Meanwhile, Denver beat reports believe Williams will be the lead back this season and could earn the starting job by Week 1. In his five rushing attempts during the Broncos’ first preseason game, Williams averaged almost six yards per carry as the starter. Furthermore, regardless of which quarterback is under center, the Broncos want to establish the running game. If given the starting job early in the season, Williams will finish the year as a top-20 running back or better.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (WR33, 84.3 ADP)

Entering his second year in the NFL, there is plenty of hype surrounding Jeudy. He has been the talk of training camp so far and appears ready to break out. Jeudy had 14 drops last season, which was the second-most in the league. Part of that problem was the quarterback situation. However, despite the issues at quarterback, Jeudy scored 10 or more fantasy points in half of his games. Furthermore, Jeudy averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game over the final two weeks of the season. With Courtland Sutton on the other side, defenses can’t double team Jeudy consistently this year. Furthermore, Jeudy is already one of the best route runners in the NFL and should have trouble finishing as a top-30 wide receiver or better this season.

Busts

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (RB19, 37.5 ADP)

In the first two years of his career, Jacobs has rushed for over 1,000 yards both seasons. However, Jacobs averaged only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt last season. While Jacobs finished as the RB8 last season, on a point per game basis, he finished as the RB14, averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Jacobs was very inconsistent weekly. He had six games last year with under 10.5 fantasy points. By comparison, Jacobs scored over 14 fantasy points in only five games. With the addition of Kenyan Drake and the questions about the offensive line, Jacobs is nothing more than a low-end RB2 with limited upside. Fantasy players are better off waiting a round or two and drafting a running back with more upside like Michael Carter over Jacobs.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (WR31, 80.0 ADP)

Last season Sutton played a total of 31 snaps before suffering a torn ACL in Week 2. In the one game he played, Sutton had three catches for 66 yards on six targets. However, 45 of the yards came from one catch. In 2019, Sutton finished as the WR26 on a point per game basis, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game. However, since then, the Broncos added Jeudy and KJ Hamler, while Tim Patrick and Noah Fant have earned bigger roles in the offense. With the questions at quarterback and all the mouths to feed on offense, taking Sutton as anything more than a fourth receiver would be a mistake.

Sleepers

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (WR50, 128.2 ADP)

After his 11 touchdown season in 2018, many had high hopes for the former seventh overall pick. However, in the two years since, Williams has struggled to become a consistent fantasy threat, scoring seven total touchdowns, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. While he has been a disappointment, Williams has put together back-to-back seasons with over 750 receiving yards. Furthermore, with Joe Lombardi taking over as the offensive coordinator, many have high hopes for Williams this season. Not only will Williams now be part of an offense that let Michael Thomas thrive as the “X receiver”, but he is also entering a contract year. Like Corey Davis last year and DeVante Parker the year before, expect Williams to have a breakout year right before he hits free agency.

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs (WR52, 134.3 ADP)

While Tyreek Hill has been a fantasy superstar in Kansas City, the receiver spot opposite him has been a revolving door. Last season, Hardman finished as the Chiefs’ WR2, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. While in 2019, Sammy Watkins averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game and 11.5 in 2018. Over those three years, the Chiefs’ WR2 had an average finish of WR59. However, Hardman has stood out in training camp and has a firm grasp on the No. 2 role. Over the first two years of his career, Hardman has averaged 7.4 fantasy points per game and a 13.3 percent touchdown rate despite playing only 43.8 percent of the snaps. Hardman is a prime third-year breakout candidate. He is someone fantasy players should draft as a WR4 with upside.


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