Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: AFC East ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepersby Mike Fanelli August 17, 2021 0 comments
Football is back! With the preseason underway, fantasy players are doing mock drafts hourly (or maybe it’s just me) to prepare for their fantasy drafts. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. In the sixth part of an eight-part series, I will look over the AFC East and provide ADP values, likely to bust candidates and potential sleepers.
Players ADP is from Fantasy Pro’s PPR ADP.
Be sure to check out all eight parts of Fanelli’s ADP values, busts, and sleepers series.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (RB21, 48.5 ADP)
Despite Brian Flores saying the Dolphins will use a three-back committee, that wasn’t the case last season. In all but two games, the lead back for the Dolphins played 60 percent or more of the snaps. Furthermore, when Gaskin was healthy, he played at least 61 percent of the snaps in every game. During the first seven games of the season, Gaskin averaged 18.6 touches and 14.1 fantasy points per game. Then, Gaskin missed time with injuries. However, once healthy, Gaskin finished the season on fire, averaging 15 touches and 25.8 fantasy points per game over the final two weeks. Furthermore, Gaskin finished as the RB12 on a points per game basis, averaging 16.4 per game. If Gaskin can stay healthy, he is a lock to finish in the top-20.
Michael Carter, New York Jets (RB31, 86.0 ADP)
After playing in two games last season, the Jets and Le’Veon Bell went their separate ways. In the offseason, the Jets signed former San Francisco 49er Tevin Coleman. However, Coleman missed eight games last season and averaged a career-low 1.9 yards per rushing attempt. The other running backs on the Jets include 2020 fourth-round pick La’Mical Perine and castoffs Ty Johnson and Josh Adams. In his rookie season, Perine averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Carter entered training camp as the favorite to be named the starter after a dominant career at UNC and has spent most of the time working with the first-team offense. Carter is in line for a lead role and should finish as a low-end RB2 or better.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills (RB36, 97.3 ADP)
Many expected the Bills to address the running back position in the offseason. Instead, they didn’t spend a single draft pick on the position. However, Moss is getting drafted too early at his current ADP. Last season, Moss finished as the RB46, averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game. He averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Sony Michel, James White, and Kalen Ballage. Furthermore, Josh Allen is the Bills’ goal line runner. He has scored eight or more rushing touchdowns every year of his career, including half the team’s total last season. Moss had more than 10 carries in only four of his 13 games. Moreover, Moss scored over nine fantasy points in five games. By comparison, he scored under 4.5 in six games. Fantasy players need to avoid this backfield.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (TE12, 123.3 ADP)
Last season, Gesicki finished second on the team with 53 catches and 703 receiving yards. In 2020, Gesicki finished as the TE7 after finishing the 2019 season as the TE12. However, Gesicki had limited help around him. Over the past two seasons, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams combined to average 7.1 targets and 12.6 fantasy points per game while missing 28.1 percent of their games. However, the Dolphins signed Will Fuller and spent the sixth pick in the draft on Jaylen Waddle. Fuller is coming off a career year in 2020, averaging 6.8 targets and 17.2 fantasy points per game, while Waddle averaged 21.1 yards per catch at Alabama last season. With the additions, Gesicki won’t see the volume needed to finish as a top-12 tight end.
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots (TE15, 134.7 ADP)
In the offseason, the Patriots spent over $100 million to improve their passing game. The top addition was the former Tennessee Titans tight end. Last season, Smith had a career year with 41 catches on 65 targets for 448 yards and eight touchdowns. Furthermore, his eight touchdowns finished tied for 15th in the league and fourth among tight ends. After Julian Edelman’s retirement, the Patriots have a hole at slot receiver. However, expect Smith to play most of his snaps at that position despite limited work there in Tennessee. Many believe the Patriots signed Hunter Henry to play as the traditional in-line tight end role, with Smith playing more of a mismatch move offensive weapon. Prepare for Smith to have a breakout season and finish as a top-10 tight end.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills (WR67, 190.2 ADP)
As a rookie, Davis showed flashes of turning into a starting-caliber wide receiver. However, he finished fourth on the team among wide receivers, averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. With John Brown in Las Vegas, Davis should have the starting job opposite of Stefon Diggs. Furthermore, despite finishing fourth among wide receivers on the team in targets per game with 3.9, Davis finished second with seven touchdowns and first with a 10.8 percent touchdown rate. With Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley on the wrong side of 30, expect the Bills to limit their snaps and keep them healthy for the playoffs, opening up enough snaps and targets for Davis to turn into a weekly WR4 option or better.
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