Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: NFC South ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepers

Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: NFC South ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepers

by August 11, 2021 0 comments

Football is back! With the preseason underway, fantasy players are doing mock drafts hourly (or maybe it’s just me) to prepare for their fantasy drafts. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. In the third part of an eight-part series, I will look over the NFC South and provide ADP values, likely to bust candidates and potential sleepers.

Players ADP is from Fantasy Pro’s PPR ADP.

Be sure to check out all eight parts of Fanelli’s ADP values, busts, and sleepers series.

Values

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (WR34, 89.7 ADP)

During his four years with the New York Jets, Anderson averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, never averaging more than 12.5 in a season. However, in his first season in Carolina, Anderson had a career year with 95 catches on 136 targets for 1,096 receiving yards and 14 fantasy points per game. In his first year with Matt Rhule as his head coach, Anderson posted a career-low 11.5 yards per reception as his aDOT was only 9.6 last season. While he had his worst touchdown season since his rookie year, Anderson had the highest red zone target share on the team at 25 percent. Many don’t believe Sam Darnold is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Panthers. However, he is an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater.

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR42, 106.5 ADP)

In eight games with the Buccaneers, Brown averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game. However, he was arguably the most valuable Buccaneers receiver. Last season, Mike Evans had 109 targets while Chris Godwin had 84 compared to 61 for Brown. However, on a per game basis, Brown averaged 7.6 targets per game compared to 6.8 for Evans and seven for Godwin. Furthermore, in the eight games Brown played, Evans averaged 7.9 targets per game while Godwin averaged 6.9 per game. The worst-case scenario is Brown equally splits targets with Evans and Godwin again this season. However, Evans and Godwin are going in the fourth round while Brown is going four rounds later. The best way to handle the Buccaneers’ receivers is to get Brown in the middle rounds.

Busts

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons (RB23, 54.7 ADP)

When Christian McCaffrey missed 13 games last season because of injuries, Davis stepped up, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game as the starter. However, Davis struggled as the season went on. In his first three starts, Davis scored 22 or more fantasy points in all three games. However, over his final nine starts, he scored more than 11.5 fantasy points only twice. Furthermore, from Week 7 on, Davis averaged only 12 fantasy points per game in his eight starts, scoring 8.8 or fewer six times. Davis projects to have a featured role this season, but for how long? Last season, many Todd Gurley would be the Falcons featured back. However, he averaged only 14.7 touches and 10.9 fantasy points per game. Don’t be surprised if Davis isn’t startable by midseason.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB31, 87.5 ADP)

Last season, Ronald Jones and Fournette combined for 1,345 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. At different points last season, one back had control of the starting role while the other appeared glued to the bench. Jones ended the season as the RB20 while Fournette finished as the RB35. However, in the playoffs, Fournette finished as the RB1, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Jones scored a total of 13.9 fantasy points in the playoffs. Even after re-signing Fournette, the Buccaneers signed Giovani Bernard to take over the third-down back role. The Buccaneers’ backfield has turned into a three-headed monster. Unless Jones or Fournette misses time with an injury, no Buccaneers’ running back will finish top-36 this year.

Sleepers

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons (WR56, 150.5 ADP)

Entering the 2020 season, Gage was a sleeper on many fantasy draft boards, given how he finished the 2019 season. Furthermore, fantasy players saw how Gage played once the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu. Over his final six games of the 2019 season, Gage averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Then, Gage started the 2020 season on fire, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks. Furthermore, in the last four games of the season without Julio Jones, Gage averaged 8.3 targets and 17 fantasy points per game. With Jones in Tennessee, Gage should see an uptick in targets despite the addition of Kyle Pitts. Furthermore, the Falcons will again have an awful defense, creating more opportunity for Gage to get the ball.

Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (TE20, 169.2 ADP)

After letting Jared Cook leave in free agency, Trautman will take over as the starting tight end. Over the past three seasons, the Saints have thrown an average of 9.3 touchdowns per season to their tight ends, with Cook scoring at least seven in each of the last two years. Furthermore, the Saints lack red zone weapons outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Despite limited work last season, 20 percent of Trautman’s catches came in the red zone. With Cook out of the picture, expect Trautman to turn into the Saints’ go-to weapon inside the 20. Furthermore, with Thomas out potentially six weeks or more to start the season, Trautman has a real chance to finish second on the team in catches this season.


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