Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: Five Wide Receivers to Target After Round 10by Mike Fanelli July 13, 2021 0 comments
Every year, fantasy football players try out different strategies. Most commonly mentioned is the “zero running back” strategy. This strategy is where you wait till the four or later round to select your first running back, focusing on adding elite wide receivers and a tight end instead. However, over the past few seasons, a new strategy has become very popular. Instead of a “zero running back” strategy, fantasy players will go with a “zero wide receiver” strategy. In this strategy, you wait till the fourth or fifth round to select their first wide receiver.
With this strategy, you can load up with top-end running backs and take advantage of the wide receiver depth. However, for this strategy to work, you must find starting-caliber wide receivers with your later-round picks. With that in mind, let’s take a look at five wide receivers you should target with an ADP later than the 10th round in a 12 team league.
All stats are base on PPR scoring. ADP is according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
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T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (WR49, 11.08 ADP)
While Hilton is on the wrong side of 30, the speedy receiver is due for a bounce-back season. Over the past two seasons, Hilton has dealt with quarterbacks who weren’t able to throw the ball downfield. In 2018 with Andrew Luck, Hilton averaged a career-high 10.6 yards per target. By comparison, he averaged 7.4 and 8.2 yards per target over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz averaged 4.8 deep ball attempts (further than 20 air yards) per game last season despite a lack of weapons. In 2018, Hilton finished as the WR14 in 14 games, averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game. While he won’t return to his end-high WR2 level, Hilton has become a complete afterthought in most drafts when he should be considered a WR3 with upside.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (WR50, 11.09 ADP)
After his 11 touchdown season in 2018, many had high hopes for the former seventh overall pick. However, in the two years since, Williams has struggled to become a consistent fantasy threat, scoring seven total touchdowns, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. While he has been a disappointment, Williams has put together back-to-back seasons with over 750 receiving yards. Furthermore, with Joe Lombardi taking over as the offensive coordinator, many have high hopes for Williams this upcoming season. Not only will Williams now be part of an offense that let Michael Thomas thrive as the “X receiver”, but he is also entering a contract year. Like Corey Davis last year and DeVante Parker the year before, expect Williams to have a breakout year right before he hits free agency.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (WR55, 13.02 ADP)
The 2020 fifth-round pick had an up and down rookie season but finished the year strong. After averaging 5.4 targets and 8.5 fantasy points per game over the first eight games of the season, Mooney averaged 6.9 targets and 10.5 fantasy points per game over the final eight games of the season. Furthermore, over the last three games of the season, Mooney started to shine, averaging 8.3 targets and 15 fantasy points per game. There are rumors out there that Anthony Miller won’t make the final roster. Meanwhile, the Bears waited until the sixth round of the draft to add a wide receiver. Mooney should have no trouble averaging 6.5 targets per game to reach 110 this season. If he does, Mooney will easily finish the season in the WR3 range.
Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons (WR57, 13.09 ADP)
Entering the 2020 season, Gage was a sleeper on many fantasy draft boards, given how he finished the 2019 season. Furthermore, fantasy players saw how Gage played once the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu. Over his final six games of the 2019 season, Gage averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. Then, Gage started the 2020 season on fire, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks of the season. Furthermore, over the final four games of the season without Julio Jones, Gage averaged 8.3 targets and 17 fantasy points per game. With Jones in Tennessee, Gage should see an uptick in targets despite the addition of Kyle Pitts. Furthermore, the Falcons will again have an awful defense, creating even more opportunity for Gage to get the ball.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills (WR67, 15.05 ADP)
Last season, Davis showed flashes of turning into a starting-caliber wide receiver. However, he finished fourth on the team among wide receivers, averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. With John Brown in Las Vegas, Davis should have the starting job opposite of Stefon Diggs. Furthermore, despite finishing fourth among wide receivers on the team in targets per game with 3.9, Davis finished second with seven touchdowns and first with a 10.8 percent touchdown rate. With Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley on the wrong side of 30, expect the Bills to limit their snaps and keep them healthy for the playoffs, opening up enough snaps and targets for Davis to turn into a weekly WR3 option or better.
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