MLB DFS: Thirsty Thursday Tips

MLB DFS: Thirsty Thursday Tips

by May 13, 2021 0 comments

As Frank Sinatra once said, “I feel sorry for people that don’t drink because when they wake up in the morning, that’s the best they’re going to feel all day. Alcohol may be man’s worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy.” I don’t say any of this to encourage drinking or to make it sound cool. Heck, I like to indulge once in a while, but even I barely drink anymore. What I’m getting at is, your DFS opponents are your enemies, and hopefully, they’ll be indulging a little tonight, given that it’s thirsty Thursday. The hope is that maybe after one too many brewskis down the gullet, they’ll make some incredibly suspicious decisions as far as who they put into their lineups. My tip for today is, don’t over-indulge and be smart. 

On The Mound

The pitchers scheduled to toe the rubber this evening could lend one to wish for more. There isn’t a standout must roster guy, but rather some intriguing hurlers with decent matchups. That’s fine. We are all working with the same ingredients. It’s all about how you stir it up and which ones you choose to leave on the table when mixing up the perfect cocktail. Let’s jump in and see if we can serve up some winners.

Zach Plesac ($8,300 DK, $8,400 FD)

A popular figure during season-long fantasy draft season, Plesac is starting to find his groove. He’s put up back-to-back scoreless outings, topping 110 pitches in each. The most impressive part of his last start, he struck out seven while walking zero in eight innings of work. While the Rays are last in xBA, the Seattle Mariners are second-worst and fourth-worst in Whiff rate. Play Plesac in cash games tonight. 

Jameson Taillon ($7,700 DK, $7,700 FD)

After his second return from Tommy John surgery, Taillon has gotten off to a shaky start. However, he’s looked increasingly better each time out. Last time against the Washington Nationals, Taillon threw a season-high 99 pitches. He gave up only three hits, but two of them were homers. If he can keep the ball in the yard, Taillon should be able to pitch his best game of the season against a team in the Tampa Bay Rays that is last in Whiff rate and xBA. 

Garrett Richards ($8,200 DK, $8,100 FD)

I just have a feeling. A lot of the data doesn’t support this, but Richards is going very under-owned tonight, and he still throws a curveball in the 100th percentile in spin rate. He’s tough to square up, and he’s already pitched seven innings in two different starts. 

Logan Gilbert ($4,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Making his much-anticipated big league debut, Gilbert has a lot of potential and comes at a huge discount. However, it’s his first major league start, and we’ve seen several pitchers struggle early on in their careers. We also don’t know how long of a leash he has. You can definitely save salary with him, but I think he’s going to be massively over-rostered.

Other GPP Options; Cristian Javier, Trevor Rogers

At The Dish

2B/OF Nick Senzel ($3,700 DK, $3,000 FD)

Senzel projects as the top value on the board due to the ballpark and pitching matchup. He’s also projected to bat at the top of the Reds’ lineup and is a bargain salary-wise compared to his teammates. Over his last 10 games, Senzel is 14-40 (.350) with one homer and one steal. And while he only has two stolen bases on seven attempts this year, the fact that he’s running means there’s upside there as well. 

3B – Jose Ramirez ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Whenever I get a chance to play one of the most dangerous hitters in the game against one of the chalkiest pitchers on the slate, I do it. J-Ram leads his team with a .411 xwOBA and 12.7 percent strikeout rate. If Gilbert has any first-game jitters and leaks one over the middle, Ramirez won’t miss. 

OF – Kyle Tucker ($3,500 DK, $3,300 FD)

Because he normally hits near the bottom of the order, people tend to forget about Tucker. Mike Foltynewicz throws a bunch of pitches right over the heart of the plate, and eight of his 11 home runs allowed have been off fastballs and sinkers. Tucker annihilates anything categorized as a fastball, according to baseball savant. Four of his eight bombs have come off fastballs, and he has a .431 xwOBA against those pitches. It helps that Tucker is sizzling hot as of late. He’s seven for his last 13 with three homers, including one in each of his last two games. I’ll take the discount and expect at least one extra-base hit from Tucker. 

Other Options: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Franmil Reyes

Stacks 

*CHALK STACK OF THE SLATE* – Cincinnati Reds vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies. Every time there’s a game at Coors, we have to take notice. Of course, tonight is no different with Gonzalez set to take the mound for the Rockies. Chi Chi has pitched in 27 games since the start of 2019 and owns a 5.74 ERA and only a 6.2 strikeout per nine during that span. The more contact you make at Coors, the better. He doesn’t miss many bats, and that doesn’t bode well for him this evening. I advise using the Reds’ hitters in your cash game lineups, but fading them, if only a little in tournaments, might not be the worst strategy due to their massive expected ownership. 

New York Yankees vs. Rich Hill 

With a game at Coors Field and some other solid matchups to attack, the Bronx Bombers could fly under the radar. Scanning over projected ownership compared to projected points, the Yankees set up to be in a good spot. Even at 41 years old, no one looks at Hill as a gas can. However, the Yankees could turn him into one tonight. 

Houston Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz 

Outside of the game taking place at Coors Field, the Astros are the highest projected team stack on the slate. That’s not good, but their matchup is. Folty is tied for the league lead in home runs allowed with 11. He’s also near the bottom in barrels per plate appearance and hard-hit rate allowed. Folty might be able to wiggle his way out of giving up a ton of runs, but it’s hard to see him getting out of this one unscathed. You can full stack the garbage bangers or use a couple of them as one-off fillers. 

Other Stacks: COL, CLE, BOS

There you have it, the perfect concoction. At least, I hope so. Set those lineups BEFORE you drink, and be thankful for the ones that forget the rule. If you’ve ever encountered a belligerent, mean drunk, remember Sinatra’s words, “The best revenge is massive success.”

Please remember to tip your bartender and good luck!


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