Cap’n Kielar’s Best Bets: Champ Week Semifinals 3/12/21by Alex Kielar March 12, 2021 0 comments
Welcome back to another edition of Cap’n Kielar’s Best Bets! Let’s try to get back on track as the last time out did not go very well as we went 1-3. Let’s roll with some conference tournament semifinal matchups that are going down tonight!
All odds are taken from Jazz Sportsbook. Please gamble responsibly.
Overall record: 25-31
ACC Tournament Semifinal: Florida State vs. North Carolina (+2.5)
The Tar Heels are rolling of late, winning three in a row which includes their first two games of this tournament. They dismantled Notre Dame, 101-59, in the second-round game, and then surged late to defeat Virginia Tech, 81-73. North Carolina has relied on driving to the hoop and hitting the glass over their three-game win streak. Against the Hokies, Armando Bacot led the way with 17 points – 13 in the second half – and 13 boards. Freshman guard RJ Davis had a team-high 19 points while hitting four shots from behind the arc. UNC outrebounded FSU 27-17 in the second half while converting 15 second-chance points.
These teams split their two meetings during the regular season, with North Carolina overcoming 21 turnovers to win the second matchup. They will have to limit the turnovers in this one, as the Seminoles are rested after their quarterfinal matchup with Duke was canceled due to a positive COVID test for the Blue Devils. Nonetheless, this one will stay close and the Tar Heels’ big men have been cooking.
Cap’n Kielar’s Pick: North Carolina (+2.5)
Big East Tournament Semifinal: Creighton vs. UConn over 143 (-110)
Both the Blue Jays and Huskies have scored over 80 points in each of their last two games. UConn scored 98 against Georgetown and 94 against DePaul, while Creighton scored 93 and 87 against Butler – the second one being the quarterfinal matchup. UConn made its return to the Big East tournament for the first time in eight years on Thursday as junior guard Tyrese Martin led the way with 14 points and 10 rebounds. Martin is the Huskies’ leading rebounder (7.4 rebounds per game), while sophomore guard James Bouknight is their leading scorer (19.4 points per game).
Creighton was led by junior guard Marcus Zegarowski on Thursday with 18 points, four rebounds, and five assists. He leads the team in points (15.5 PPG) and assists (4.4 assists per game). These high-powered offenses should make for a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair on Friday night and easily hit the over.
Cap’n Kielar’s Pick: Over 143 points (-110)
Mountain West Tournament Semifinal: San Diego State vs. Nevada (+8)
The Aztecs have failed to cover the spread in their last three games, while they beat Wyoming by three in the quarterfinals as (-15.5) favorites. Nevada, meanwhile, has covered their last two games including as a four-point underdog against Boise State. In the two regular-season matchups between these teams, Nevada covered as 11-point and 13-point underdogs, respectively, losing by a combined seven points. The Wolf Pack is also 18-6 against the spread this season, while San Diego State is 13-11 ATS.
Cap’n Kielar’s Pick: Nevada (+8)
Mountain West Tournament Semifinal: Utah State (-4.5) vs. Colorado State
Utah State has won eight of its last ten games and six of their last seven against Colorado State. The Aggies blew out UNLV in the quarterfinals last night, 74-53, led by junior center Neemias Queta‘s 18 points and 13 rebounds. Their only two losses over the last ten games were against Boise State in February by a combined 13 points. Both of these teams are listed as two of ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the NCAA Tournament, so this is likely a play-in game. The two teams split the two regular-season meetings, with the Aggies winning by 19 and losing by eight. They both come in playing well, but let’s roll with Utah State.
Cap’n Kielar’s Pick: Utah State (-4.5)
Pac-12 Tournament Semifinal: USC (+1.5) vs. Colorado
The Trojans outlasted Utah in double overtime last night, 91-85 for their third win in a row. Colorado barely squeaked by a nine-win Cal team last night, 61-58, and this looks to be a close matchup. USC is 16-11 ATS this season 14-10 ATS as 1.5 point underdogs. Evan Mobley had a team-high 26 points in the win over Utah and they should be able to carry momentum over to this one.
Cap’n Kielar’s Pick: USC (+1.5)
Good luck tonight!
Follow Alex Kielar on Twitter @AlexKielar
Main Image designed by Zach Gotlieb @zachgotlieb