Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for AFC Championship Gameby Mike Fanelli January 24, 2021 0 comments
Entering the postseason, many expected the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs to meet up in the AFC Championship Game as they were the two best teams in the conference this season. To very few’s surprise, that’s what we got. While both team’s fan base will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care for what will lead to money in their pockets. However, which bets should they place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Josh Allen Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-182)
Allen has been great this season and belongs in the MVP conversation. However, he doesn’t have the eye-popping statistics like Aaron Rodgers. Allen averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns per game during the regular season but threw two or fewer in 63 percent of his games. Furthermore, he had two passing touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts and only one last week against the Baltimore Ravens. When the Bills faced the Chiefs in Week 6, Allen had two passing touchdowns. Allen will play a critical role for the Bills tonight, but expect him to have only two passing touchdowns, with a third potentially coming on the ground.
Darrel Williams Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Do not place this bet until the game-day inactive list is announced before kickoff. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire is active, you should avoid this prop bet. However, if CEH is out, Williams is in line for a lead role against the Bills. Since CEH suffered the hip injury in Week 15, Williams has played on 70 percent or more of the snaps in every game since except for a meaningless Week 17 game. In those other two games, Williams averaged 62 rushing yards per game, totaling 46 or more in both contests. Even with Le’Veon Bell active last week, Williams played almost 80 percent of the snaps and had 78 rushing yards. If CEH is out tonight, expect a similar outcome.
Stefon Diggs Over 7.5 Receptions (-106)
In his first season in Buffalo, Diggs led the league in receptions with 127 (7.9 per game). More importantly, Diggs had eight or more targets in all but two games this season. The high number of targets led to success as Diggs had eight or more receptions in 10 games this season, including eight last week against the Ravens. Furthermore, Diggs has eight or more receptions in seven of his past 10 games, averaging 8.7 per game during that span. Diggs is the focal point of the Bills’ offense and given his success this season, he could hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.
Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Pass Touchdowns (-157)
Much like Allen, Mahomes has been great this season and is in the MVP conversation. Also, much like Allen, Mahomes doesn’t have the passing touchdown numbers to match Rodgers. Mahomes averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns per game during the regular season. However, last week against the Cleveland Browns, Mahomes matched his season-low with only one passing touchdown. Mahomes threw two or fewer touchdowns in 67 percent of his games during the regular, including three of his past four to close out the year. Furthermore, in the Week 6 matchup against the Bills, Mahomes had two passing touchdowns, and gamblers can expect a similar outcome tonight.
Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
Two weeks ago, Zack Moss suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Even before the injury, Allen was a critical part of the Bills’ rushing attack, especially in the red zone. Allen averaged 6.4 rushing attempts per game to go along with a team-high eight rushing touchdowns this season. During the regular season, Allen had seven or more rushing attempts in 56 percent of his games, including in the Week 6 matchup against the Chiefs. However, Allen has 18 rushing attempts in the two playoff games, rushing seven or more times in both contests. Remember, quarterback kneel-downs count as a rushing attempt. Given Allen’s role in the running game, combined with the bonus of kneel-downs, he should hit the over on this prop bet early in the second half.
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