Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for NFC Championship Gameby Mike Fanelli January 23, 2021 0 comments
We are down to the final two in the NFC as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Green Bay to take on the Packers for the right to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. While both team’s fan base will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care for what will lead to money in their pockets. However, which bets should they place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tomorrow’s game.
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Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
While Rodgers only threw two touchdowns last week against the Los Angeles Rams, he did score a rushing touchdown. In his previous two games, Rodgers had four passing touchdowns in each one. Furthermore, Rodgers had three or more passing touchdowns in 75 percent of his games during the regular season. More impressively, Rodgers had more games this season with four passing touchdowns (seven) than games with fewer than three (four). In a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in league history, expect Rodgers to have at least three passing touchdowns in this game.
Rob Gronkowski Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After taking a year off, Gronkowski returned this season. However, he started the year slowly, totaling only 11 receiving yards in the first two games. Then Gronk found his footing and became a consistent weapon in the Buccaneers’ passing game, recording 29 or more receiving yards in six straight games, including 78 against the Packers in Week 6. Furthermore, Gronk finished with 29 or more receiving yards in almost 70 percent of his games this season. Antonio Brown will miss this game, opening up more targets for Gronkowski, so expect him to hit the over on this prop bet before the end of the third quarter.
Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-182)
I have bet this prop every week during the regular season and will do it again this week. Adams has been a touchdown machine this season, scoring 19 touchdowns in 15 games, scoring at least once in all but three games this season. Furthermore, Adams has scored at least once in 11 of his last 12 games, including once last week against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Adams is Rodgers’ go-to guy as he averaged 10.6 targets per game this season. Adams is more likely to score the first touchdown of the game than not score at all.
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
The payout is far from ideal, but the price doesn’t matter if it’s all but a lock to hit. Brady averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns per game during the regular season and has thrown two in each of the Buccaneers’ two playoff games. Brady threw two or more passing touchdowns in 83 percent of his games this season, including two in the Week 6 matchup against the Packers. Furthermore, Brady had more games this season with four or more passing touchdowns (four) than games under two (three). With Gronkowski, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin at his disposal, don’t be surprised if Brady throws two touchdown passes before halftime.
Aaron Jones Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Jones hasn’t received consistent touches on the ground this season. In 15 games, Jones had 15 or fewer rushing attempts in 67 percent of them, including last week against the Rams. Furthermore, Jones has received 16 or more rushing attempts in only one of his past six games, averaging 14 per game during that span. More importantly, Jones is in a shared backfield. He has played under 72 percent of the snaps in all but one game this season. The Buccaneers will have run-stuffing star Vita Vea for this game, which will force the Packers to focus more on the passing game. With that in mind, Jones is more likely to see single-digit rushing attempts than 16 or more.
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