NFL DFS: Divisional Round Sunday

NFL DFS: Divisional Round Sunday

by January 17, 2021 0 comments

It’s Divisional Sunday, and I am more than stoked to watch these matchups. As the playoffs roll on, the games get better and better. What’s better than watching great football games? Making money while watching. Here are some players I’ll be targeting in both Cash Games and GPPs/Tournaments. 

Quarterback 

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD)

Don’t think twice about it. If you can spend the money on him and aren’t afraid of his high ownership, play him. While the Browns defense intercepted Ben Roethlisberger four times last week, they still allowed 501 yards and four touchdown passes. Ben put up over 37 DK points in a losing effort. What is Mahomes going to do in a winning one?

Baker Mayfield ($5,200 DK, $7,400 FD)

Baker is an easy way to get cheap exposure to this potentially high scoring game. The natural move would be playing Mahomes. However, the Browns could be forced into more passing than wanted if the Chiefs offense plays as expected against their sub-average defense. I think the consensus has the Browns relying heavily on their rushing attack. Playing Baker and pairing him with at least one pass-catcher could be a solid contrarian move that will allow you to spend up for almost whoever else you want. 

Running Back 

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD) 

I don’t see how you get away from Kamara here. Latavius Murray is unlikely to play, so Kamara will get all the work he can handle. Even with Murray stealing some snaps throughout the season, Kamara averaged over five receptions per game and over 25 DK points. Lock him in. 

Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK, $8,200 FD)

Nine running backs finished with over 1,000 rushing yards this season. Chubb was among them, with 1,067 rushing yards. He also played in at least two fewer games than every other rusher to do it. The Chiefs rank 31st in rush DVOA and have allowed more rushing yards per game at home than on the road this season (131 to 113.2). If the Browns wind up pulling out the upset, Chubb will be a big reason why. 

Kareem Hunt ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD)

The game script Vegas implies is the Chiefs winning handily. If that holds true, Hunt could see a lot of time on the field on passing downs. Hunt has a 10.9 percent season target share compared to Chubb’s 5.1 percent. While Chubb is the more explosive back and will certainly see his share of volume, Hunt continues to get work. In games both Chubb and Hunt have played, Hunt averages 10.8 carries and 2.9 targets per game. He’s also coming off a two-touchdown game last week. I have no issues saving salary here with him. Choosing between Chubb or Hunt in your lineups all depends on how the rest of it is constructed. Playing both in the same lineup isn’t crazy. It’s not too far-fetched for both of them to have a solid game. 

Darrel Williams ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD) 

If Clyde Edwards-Helaire sits, which he is expected to, Williams becomes very intriguing at his bare-minimum price. Le’Veon Bell will carry higher ownership, but he has been rather ineffective since joining the team. Williams has averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Bell’s 4.0. Let’s say he runs for about 50 yards, catches two passes, and scores a touchdown. That would be great value, and it’s not out of the question. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas ($6,600 DK, $7,200 FD)

Thomas was reinserted into the lineup last week after getting healthy at the right time. He caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown against a good Chicago Bears defense. The production could’ve been better had the Bears stayed in the game in the second half. To beat Tampa Bay, the Saints are going to have to throw the football. Tampa’s defense ranks first overall in rush DVOA. However, they allow the sixth-highest completion percentage at 68.38 percent. With Drew Brees not throwing the deep ball much and Thomas running many slants and short-area routes, expect Brees to look his way early and often. This is too cheap for Thomas.

Demarcus Robinson ($3,600 DK, $5,100 FD)

If you click on Robinson’s name above, it’ll take you to his pro-football-reference page. There you will see, next to his name, the perfect nickname – Real Deal. In this Chiefs offense, that’s exactly what he can be. The masses will flock to Mecole Hardman because he is the higher-upside, home run hitter. However, Robinson averages the same number of targets, plays more snaps, and runs more routes. Of course, Sammy Watkins being out with a calf injury, opens the door for either one to have a good game. Let’s roll with Robinson, who has more receptions than Hardman on the season and will be lower owned. 

Tampa Bay Wide Receivers: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown

Listing all of the Tampa Bay wide receivers in one grouping because I believe they are interchangeable. I’m not sure which one will pop off and have a good game, and it’s possible two of them do. I plan to play at least one of them in every lineup and play the same lineup three ways, changing maybe one other player to make the salaries fit and alternating which Tampa receiver is included. 

Other Options: Jarvis Landry

Tight End

Travis Kelce ($7,700 DK, $8,500 FD)

Kelce had the best season of his career, and that’s saying something, considering he’s had many outstanding seasons. He broke George Kittle’s single-season receiving yards record set a year ago. He went over 100 receiving yards six times this season and scored at least one touchdown in 10 of the 15 games he played. He is as close to a lock as it gets, especially on a small slate like the two-gamer today. 

Austin Hooper ($3,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

Hooper is a fraction of the cost of Jarvis Landry, who is still a solid value option. Hooper is second on the team to Landry in red zone target share (24.3 percent to 24.1 percent). The Chiefs allowed the seventh-most DK points per game to the tight end position this season. Over the last four games, Hooper has at least four catches in each and a touchdown in three of those games. He’s my preferred Browns’ pass-catcher, and I don’t mind playing two tight ends in the same lineup. 

Other Options: Jared Cook

Defense/Special Teams

Jot all four teams down on separate pieces of paper and toss them in a hat. Then, put your hand in the hat and randomly select one of those papers. That’s your defense.

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