NFL DFS – GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 17by Joe Ricotta January 3, 2021 0 comments
All season, every week has felt like a “wait for the news” week. In Week 17, that’s always the case. Nonetheless, we can take on a little more risk in tournaments with all of the uncertainty about who will be playing their starters and who won’t. In Cash Games, we need to focus on the teams that have something to play for, with their playoff hopes on the line. We know those teams will be playing at max-effort and using their starters. In tournaments, we can take some more gambles and play some unknowns who have the potential to break the slate. Grabbing a little of both is a good strategy.
We’ll start by saying that any picks used or mentioned for Cash Games can be played in tournaments, including the “Other Options.” That’s an important thing to know and can sometimes get confusing when the two are discussed separately. For that reason, I’ve tried to avoid mentioning my Cash Game plays for this article.
There is merit to using or fading individual players in tournaments, whether it be ownership expectations, bust potential, etc. Just about all of the cash game plays are viable for tournaments. If you’d like to see Cash Game Plays, you can check that out here. With that said, let’s get to some other picks for tournaments. Getting a mixture of popular and lower-owned players is the best way to go. Let’s go for the big bucks. Here are the favorite GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 17.
Whoever makes sense with your stacks, ownership isn’t a huge concern on this big of a slate, and the lower-priced QBs are just as capable of clearing 30 points as the high-priced options.
Nick Chubb ($7,600 DK, $8,100 FD)
The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t been playing like the defensive juggernaut they appeared to be earlier in the season. Losing Bud Dupree made a difference. This week, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward as well. The Steelers have allowed 139.5 rushing yards per game in their last two games. Wide zone runs for Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be where Kevin Stefanski looks to attack.
Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD)
The Broncos rank 25th in rush DVOA (-0.88 percent). Jacobs has rushed for over 100 yards only twice this season, and one of those times came against the Broncos in Week 10. We know he will get the carries, and I think he’s going a bit overlooked because of all the value options at running back this week.
Allen Robinson ($7,700 DK, $7,700 FD)
Am I missing something? Why is A-Rob looking like he will be under-owned? Jaire Alexander and Kevin King must really be scaring people away. Robinson just caught eight passes for 74 yards and two touchdowns the last time the Bears faced the Packers. Yes, a lot of it was in garbage time, but do we really care how the fantasy production comes? Sticking to that point, the Bears are very much live dogs in this one, and they’ll rely on their number one wideout. Mitchell Trubisky loves throwing him the ball. Since Mitch returned as the starting quarterback, A-Rob has a near 30 percent target share.
Derrick Henry will be super popular. The simplest way to get leverage from that is to play The Tennessee Titans’ passing attack. Brown had a big two-touchdown game in Week 6 against the Texans, and Davis has five games with over 100 receiving yards this season. The Texans have allowed the most yards, touchdowns, and DK points to opposing wideouts this year. Feel free to play one or both with Ryan Tannehill.
Noah Fant ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD)
Pairing Fant with Drew Lock is an option because of how cheap Lock is. Either way, Fant is a solid stand-alone play. Over the last two games, he’s been targeted 20 times and is averaging 16.65 DK points. The game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos has sneaky shootout potential. Vegas currently has it as the third-highest Over/Under on the board.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD)
Marvin Jones is my preferred option in Cash Games, but he will be popular as a runback option alongside Minnesota Vikings stacks. We are still waiting to see a real monster game from Hockenson, although he’s had a solid season. After a couple of down weeks, don’t be surprised to see a good output from the young tight end out of Iowa. Yes, both of my GPP tight end options are former Hawkeyes.
HOU vs. TEN
DET vs. MIN
CHI vs. GB
IND vs. JAC
DEN vs. LVR
RB – Dare Ogunbowale ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD)
Truth or dare? Truth – the Jaguars are no longer in tank mode, as they’ve secured the number one overall draft pick thanks to another New York Jets victory last week and a loss of their own. Vegas is expecting this to be a game dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. Wouldn’t it be insane if the Jags pulled out the upset and the Colts missed the playoffs? If the Jags hang around, Ogunbowale could be a key reason why filling in for James Robinson as the lead running back. The Colts rank 11th in run DVOA, but if Dare will get the workload Robinson was, who’s to say he can’t pay off on volume alone? Maybe you get lucky, and he falls into the endzone a couple of times. Dare to play Dare.
WR – Chris Conley ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD)
It seems I’m all over the Jags this week. They will be without wideouts DJ Chark and Collin Johnson. Conley will step into an increased role. He’s very much a boom or bust type of guy, but his speed is elite, and he could get added downfield targets from Mike Glennon with nothing to lose in a trailing effort. The upside is crucial for tournaments, and Conley has plenty of it.
WR – Van Jefferson ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD)
With Cooper Kupp out of action after being placed on the COVID-19 list, Jefferson figures to play many snaps in three-wide receiver sets. The rookie second-round draft pick hasn’t gotten a ton of action this year, but maybe he has more continuity with backup quarterback John Wolford, who will be getting the start in place of Jared Goff. It’s not something to put all of your money on, but it’s a theory, and one I’m willing to take a chance on in large-field tournaments.
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @theriot326
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