NFL DFS – Cash Game Plays for Week 17by Joe Ricotta January 3, 2021 1 comment
Welcome to the final week of the regular season! Hopefully, everyone had a safe and Happy New Year. On tap, we have a gigantic 15-game slate with eight games set to play in the late time window, giving us plenty of flexibility for late swaps. It’s hard to believe the season is coming to an end, but the playoffs should be a lot of fun, and DFS will continue throughout. As always, with the final week of the season, it’s imperative to be updated on all of the late-breaking news. Things can and most likely will change after this article is released. With that said, let’s dive in and try to crush it one last time.
The cash game article’s goal is to outline some safe plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point is for us to make some money.
Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That should go without saying but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis. Cash Games are basically H2Hs, 50/50s, and Double-Ups. The amount of winnings might be limited, but these contests have a higher probability of hitting.
Everyone wants to know how many points a guy scored and not necessarily the route that took them there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are the NFL DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 17.
As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup.
Deshaun Watson ($7,700 DK, $8,700 FD)
Albeit playing for a losing team without much help around him, mainly on the defensive side of the ball and offensive line, Watson has been as consistent as they come this season. With one game remaining, Watson has thrown for 300 yards or more nine times and has 11 games with 21 or more DK points. Knowing how important this game is for the Tennessee Titans, we can assume their offense will put the pressure on and put some points on the scoreboard. That doesn’t mean Watson and the Texans are going to phone it in. The Titans are 30th in pass DVOA and dead last in adjusted sack rate. Watson threw for 335 yards and four scores the last time these teams faced off, and he should be able to have success again.
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD)
Trubisky continues to make his case to the Chicago Bears’ front office and other teams for a contract next season. The Bears can make the playoffs without a win if the Los Angeles Rams can defeat the Arizona Cardinals. However, if you were to ask the Bears if that’s the goal, it’s not. They are looking at this as a must-win. In Week 12 against the Packers, Trubisky put up 21.8 DK points in garbage time. With Aaron Rodgers on the other side, the Bears will need a big performance from him. 20 points for a floor is viable at this price tag.
Derrick Henry ($9,400 DK, $10,200 FD) – 🔒
No one in their right mind thinks the Houston Texans have what it takes to neutralize the man-beast that is King Henry. The King dominated the Texans earlier in the season, rushing for 212 yards and two touchdowns, averaging his season-best in a single-game, 9.64 yards per carry. Anything less than 130 yards and a touchdown would be a complete shock to me. Lock him in.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD)
The Indianapolis Colts have the highest implied team total on the entire slate, and as stated earlier, it’s a massive 15-gamer. They are also huge favorites and playing at home. The rookie has been finding his stride at the right time, averaging 5.48 yards per attempt and scoring six total touchdowns over the last five games. At this point, everyone knows how atrociously bad the Jags are defensively. The colts need this win. Unless the game gets completely out of hand, expect them to lean heavily on their studs until the final whistle blows.
Ty Montgomery ($4,000 DK, $4,500 FD) – 🔒
The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara and their entire running back corps. The Saints will be looking to pick up a victory over the Carolina Panthers in hopes of grabbing the number one seed throughout the playoffs. Helping the Saints’ cause, the Panthers have had issues stopping opposing running backs. They rank 21st in run DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most yards per carry. Montgomery is also more of a receiver, so we can expect the Saints to get creative with his passing game usage out of the backfield. The main reason to play him is for salary relief. He’s the stone minimum, and it will allow you to spend up for the big boys.
Alexander Mattison ($6,100 DK, $5,000 FD) – FanDuel 🔒
We tried this earlier in the year when Dalvin Cook missed the game against the Atlanta Falcons. That didn’t work, but the Falcons are a much better defensive run-stopping unit than the Detroit Lions. In their first meeting this season with the Lions, Cook exploded for a season-high 206 yards and two touchdowns. Mattison got in on the act as well, rushing for 5.75 yards per carry and 69 yards on 12 attempts. Different sites call for different lineup builds. You can play him on DraftKings, but he is a lock on FanDuel.
Davante Adams ($9,200 DK, $9,300 FD)
As a Chicago Bears fan, typing this out hurts my soul. I want Adams to get completely neutralized with the Bears needing a win over the Packers to solidify a playoff spot. However, my brain and bankroll management won’t allow me to play favorites. The Bears will be without their number two cornerback Jaylon Johnson and nickel corner Buster Skrine. Kyle Fuller doesn’t shadow cover all that much, so Green Bay could, and we have to assume, will find ways to move Adams around to get him the ball. The Aaron Rodgers to Adams connection has been strong all season long. Despite missing two games, Adams is two catches and 58 receiving yards away from single-season career highs in both categories, and he already has a career-high 17 touchdowns.
Marvin Jones ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Matthew Stafford is one tough SOB. Clearly, he’s not 100 percent, but it sounds like he’s going to give it a go. The Detroit Lions’ offense is much better whenever he’s on the field. Last week, Stafford came out of the game with an injury. With Stafford in from weeks 10-15, Jones has a 26.8 percent target share. During that span of games, he’s averaged 18.5 DK points and 10 targets per game. If you’re looking to spend on a mid-range salary receiver, look no further than Jones.
Laviska Shenault ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD)
Viska has caught five or more passes in each of his last three games. The Jags will be without DJ Chark and Collin Johnson at wide receiver, so Shenault should see plenty of volume. The Colts have been getting burned recently, allowing each of their last four opponents to throw for over 300 yards. In a game where the Colts are 14.5 favorites, expect Mike Glennon and the Jags to air it out.
Josh Reynolds ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD)
If you’ve been reading along all year and catching my drift throughout the article, you realize I like taking advantage of players in good spots to produce at good prices, replacing starting players. Reynolds is no different. Cooper Kupp is out with COVID-19. Reynolds was already getting a solid amount of volume, with a 14.2 percent season target share. Someone has to replace Kupp’s 22.8 percent season target share, and Reynolds figures to be the guy.
George Kittle ($6,000 DK, $6,800 FD)
Welcome back to the main slate Mr. Kittle. The tight end position hasn’t been the same without you. It’s been Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and a bunch of random weekly producers. The 49ers eased Kittle back into the mix, putting him out there for only 50 percent of the snaps. Even so, Kittle was targeted five times and caught four passes for 92 yards. I think this is where they let him run wild, especially considering they are missing Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Vance McDonald ($2,500 DK, $4,200 FD)
I don’t expect McDonald to get a ton of ownership, but he’s a good punt option with Eric Ebron on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Browns have allowed 10 touchdowns and the third-most DK points per game to opposing tight ends.
Arizona Cardinals ($2,800 DK, $3,800 FD)
The Los Angeles Rams will be without Kupp, Jared Goff, Darrell Henderson, and Akers is a game-time decision. With the playoffs hanging in the balance for both teams, the Rams will turn to former AAF quarterback John Wolford. This is a tough situation to throw him into. The Arizona Cardinals have been getting pressure, racking up 17 sacks over their last three games.
Cleveland Browns ($2,500 DK, $4,100 FD)
Mike Tomlin has elected to sit Ben Roethlisberger and start Mason Rudolph for the season finale. Rudolph was very underwhelming as a starter in 2019, and this will be his first start since Week 12 of last year. It will also be the first time he lines up opposite of Myles Garrett since he hit Rudolph in the head with a helmet when the two teams played each other last year. The Browns need a win, and I don’t see them going easy on a team resting many of their normal starters.
Other Options: Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @theriot326
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