Every year, a few struggling teams make midseason personnel changes with an outlook on the future of their franchise. Then, on the Monday after Week 17, a larger swarm of firings are made official. Essentially, this day, dubbed “Black Monday” is the front office and coaching staff’s version of roster cutdown day. The best coaches (roughly 80 to 90 percent of the league) receive a vote of confidence from their superiors while the rest hit the open market.
With Black Monday just one day away, it’s time to preview which head coaches could see lose their jobs. Here is a breakdown of all 32 head coaches, their job security, and what their scenarios could look like.
The coaches will be ranked from one to 10, with a higher number meaning a higher chance of losing their job. In addition to their team, name, and security, each coach’s record during their current head coaching tenure will be listed. Interim coaches will be listed with an asterisk accompanying their name.
Arizona Cardinals: Kliff Kingsbury
Record: 13-17-1 | Job Danger: 2.5/10
The Cardinals rebounded compared to their poor 5-10-1 record in 2019, but it was still a frustrating year. Nevertheless, the future remains bright in Arizona and Kingsbury is showing signs of being the right man for the job. Entering Week 17, the Cardinals are 8-7 and remain in contention for a playoff spot. Kingsbury has at least two years remaining under contract and should remain with the team for both of them (if not longer).
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris*
Record: 4-6 | Job Danger: 8/10
Taking over a team midway through the season is never easy. Morris took over for Dan Quinn and impressed as his team was dealt just one loss of at least two scores. The Falcons witnessed big wins over the Vikings and Raiders while also giving the Chiefs and Buccaneers a run for their money. Nevertheless, there is some speculation that Morris, who is currently under the interim tag, might not hold the job. Various candidates (including Morris) have been interviewed, and the vacancy is quite intriguing for prospective coaches. Morris’s familiarity with the Falcons helps his case, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to edge out a deep pool of candidates.
Baltimore Ravens: John Harbaugh
Record: 138-86 | Job Danger: 1/10
Harbaugh isn’t going anywhere. The Ravens have looked very good once again this year and should be excited about their future with a young offense and relentless defense. Harbaugh’s job is safe for years to come.
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott
Record: 37-28 | Job Danger: 1/10
The Bills have undergone an immense transformation and are now one of the best teams in all of football. The defense is formidable while the offense is nearly unstoppable, and a large portion of the credit goes to McDermott and his staff. The Bills showed faith in McDermott in August, signing him to a multi-year extension, and he rewarded them with an AFC East title. His job is safe for a while.
Carolina Panthers: Matt Rhule
Record: 5-10 | Job Danger: 2.5/10
Rhule joined the Panthers on a multi-year deal that dragged him away from Baylor last winter. While his first year in Carolina was not incredible, the team showed signs of life. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson look like a strong receiving duo while Mike Davis filled in admirably during Christian McCaffrey‘s absence. Meanwhile, the defense has flourished into a relentless beast with players like Jeremy Chinn and Brian Burns making their presence felt. Rhule is not going anywhere.
Chicago Bears: Matt Nagy
Record: 28-20 | Job Danger: 2/10
Any Bears fans who wanted to get rid of Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Nagy might want to stop reading. The Bears started off strong, stumbled midseason, and then bounced back to approach franchise-best numbers in terms of points scored. With Trubisky, an impending free agent, under center and Nagy at the helm, the Bears are in a good place. They will bring back their head coach and push to re-sign their quarterback in hopes of several more trips to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zac Taylor
Record: 6-24-1 | Job Danger: 3.5/10
Zac Taylor does not deserve to be on the hot seat, yet here we are. Some Bengals fans have been upset with this season, and reasonably so. However, the blame does not solely lie at Taylor’s feet. It has already been reported that several personnel changes are in the works, with Taylor presumably keeping his job. Beyond the rest of the coaching staff, injuries have plagued the team. With a healthy Joe Burrow, replenished Joe Mixon, and a top draft pick, Taylor will be given a chance to save his job in 2021. For now, though, his job is secure.
Cleveland Browns: Kevin Stefanski
Record: 10-5 | Job Danger: 2/10
When Stefanski was hired last winter, many people questioned the Browns’ decision to pick him over San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. Whether these concerns were justified or not remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: hiring Stefanski was a very, very good choice. Despite season-ending injuries to key players Grant Delpit and Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns are 10-5 and on the verge of a playoff berth. After years of being a pitiful organization, the Browns are more than satisfied and have clearly found their coach of the future in Stefanski.
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy
Record: 6-9 | Job Danger: 3.5/10
There have been some murmurs about McCarthy, but it sounds like his job will be safe. Much like Zac Taylor, McCarthy’s job security can be credited to the team’s injuries, with Dak Prescott‘s at the forefront. For the time being, McCarthy is secure. Still, he will need to prove himself with a healthy and rejuvenated roster in 2021.
Denver Broncos: Vic Fangio
Record: 12-19 | Job Danger: 6.5/10
The Broncos have struggled in 2020, and while some of their woes can be blamed on injuries to Von Miller and Courtland Sutton, a lot of the blame lies at the feet of Fangio and his staff. The development of Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy has been frustrating as the two have yet to reach their expectations. Recent reports suggest Fangio’s job will be safe, but the clock is certainly ticking. If he isn’t fired after this season, he’ll surely enter 2021 on the hot seat.
Detroit Lions: Darrell Bevell*
Record: 1-3 | Job Danger: 10/10
Bevell took over as the Lions’ interim head coach after Matt Patricia was fired. Turning to a new commander didn’t make a difference for the team, which has continued to struggle. Bevell might receive an interview for the vacancy, but it’s essentially a lock that he won’t be a head coach in 2021.
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur
Record: 26-7 | Job Danger: 1/10
LaFleur has been stellar in his two years since taking over as the Packers’ head coach. The defense has grown into a strong unit while the offense is arguably the best in the NFL. The biggest concern for the playoff-bound Packers remains their concerning 2-2 record against opponents with a winning record, but their big win against the Tennessee Titans helped to silence the doubters. Whether you’re sold on the Packers or not, one thing is clear: LaFleur’s job is safe for a while.
Houston Texans: Romeo Crennel*
Record: 4-7 | Job Danger: 10/10
The Texans were the first team to fire their coach this year, moving on from Bill O’Brien just four weeks into the season. Crennel has been a successful coach in his career, but his old age coupled with the direction of the Texans nearly ensures that he won’t be a head coach next year.
Indianapolis Colts: Frank Reich
Record: 28-21 | Job Danger: 2.5
The Colts have found their footing as one of the most gritty teams in the AFC. Their up-and-coming defense coupled with young offensive weapons in Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. provides Colts fans with optimism for the future of the team. Reich is at the forefront of this success and deserves significant credit. If the Colts can shore up the quarterback position this offseason, they will be perennial contenders for quite some time.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Doug Marrone
Record: 25-43 | Job Danger: 10/10
Marrone’s seat is scorching hot after a miserable year. The Jaguars won their opening game but have lost 14 since, clinching the No. 1 pick along the way. With Trevor Lawrence in their sights, the Jaguars are expected to make personnel changes that align with the selection of the Clemson signal-caller. One of said victims will be Marrone, whose risky and free approach won’t fly with Lawrence under center. The Jaguars will almost certainly be hiring a new head coach this winter, and their vacancy could be one of the most attractive.
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid
Record: 94-61 | Job Danger: 1/10
While it is no surprise to anyone, Reid won’t be going anywhere. The Chiefs are the best team in football and their head coach is one of the best in the business.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jon Gruden
Record: 18-29 | Job Danger: 4/10
Gruden continues to be a horrendous head coach and one of the worst investments the Raiders have made in recent memory. (Trent Brown, too. Yikes.) Gruden’s inability to manage a game in a close situation is baffling, and it cost the Raiders a playoff bid this year. However, he still has seven years and $70 million to go, so he likely won’t be fired.
Los Angeles Chargers: Anthony Lynn
Record: 33-32 | Job Danger: 9/10
Lynn’s seat is scorching hot, but it hasn’t quite reached a “10.” With offensive weapons like Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler, the Chargers should be good. Enter, Anthony Lynn. While he has a decent track record with a playoff berth in 2018, the Chargers are heading towards their second straight top-10 draft pick. The Chargers have a tough decision awaiting them, and it might take longer than Monday for them to decide.
Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay
Record: 44-23 | Job Danger: 1.5/10
2020 was expected to be a down year for the Rams. Less than two years removed from the Super Bowl, it looked like they were going to finish third in their division and take a one-year hiatus from the playoffs. They heard their doubters and exposed them, winning nine of 15 games and keeping their name in contention for the NFC West title until Week 16. Now faced with a win-or-go-home scenario in Week 17, the Rams will be without key players in Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, and Darrell Henderson. Win or lose, the young McVay overachieved this year and proved that he can adapt to the always-changing ways of the NFL.
Miami Dolphins: Brian Flores
Record: 15-16 | Job Danger: 1/10
A top candidate for Coach of the Year, Flores has impressed in his second year in Miami. The Dolphins’ defense has taken over as one of the best in the league while the offense has taken enormous strides, too. Nearly in the top tier of head coaches after just two years on the job, Flores is a true football mastermind. He should be an NFL head coach for a long time.
Minnesota Vikings: Mike Zimmer
Record: 65-50-1 | Job Danger: 7/10
Signed to a three-year extension in August, Zimmer was supposed to lead the Vikings to a big year. While some players shone, the team struggled as a whole. The Vikings have missed the playoffs and could finish with 10 losses this season if they lose on Sunday. Firing a coach one year after is extending him is rare, but the fact that he has just two years left under contract does not help his case. In fact, the attractiveness of a potential vacancy could play into the Vikings brass’ decision-making. They’ll surely think long and hard on Zimmer’s status, especially after he refused to take responsibility for the team’s struggles last week.
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick
Record: 273-103 | Job Danger: 1/10
One of the greatest head coaches of all-time, Belichick dealt with some rare hiccups in 2020 that led to the Patriots missing the playoffs for the first time in what felt like forever. Despite the seemingly endless woes, Belichick’s job is obviously safe until he chooses to retire.
New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton
Record: 150-88 | Job Danger: 1/10
Payton and the Saints dealt with a lot of adversity in 2020, with injuries to Drew Brees and Michael Thomas at the forefront of those issues. Nevertheless, the team stood strong with Payton in charge of yet another playoff run. Payton’s ability to adapt and succeed makes him one of the active head coaches in the league. His job is safe for quite some time.
New York Giants: Joe Judge
Record: 5-10 | Job Danger: 3/10
The Giants struggled in Joe Judge’s first year, but it likely wasn’t enough to warrant firing him. Saquon Barkley‘s injury and weak quarterback and receiver play hurt the team, but the defense impressed and overachieved en route to being the team’s bright spot in 2020. Judge’s job is safe due to various circumstances, but his status should be monitored over the next year or two.
New York Jets: Adam Gase
Record: 9-22 | Job Danger: 10/10
In an unpopular decision, the Jets chose to hold on to Gase rather than fire him midseason. After losing their first 13 games, the Jets have won their last two and have a legitimate chance to make it in three in a row against the Patriots on Sunday. Still, Gase is expected to be fired following just two dramatic years in New York. He’ll make for a strong quarterbacks coach, but he likely won’t land a coordinator or head coaching job anytime soon.
Philadelphia Eagles: Doug Pederson
Record: 46-38-1 | Job Danger: 7/10
Despite reports saying he will keep his job, Pederson’s seat remains scorching hot. Just three years removed from a commanding Super Bowl championship, the Eagles are in for some changes. The first task was benching Carson Wentz, which occurred midseason. Fans also wanted the team to part with Jim Schwartz, who is taking matters into his own hands by stepping away from football for at least one year. The next course of action would be firing Pederson. While the possibility of a firing has been refuted, this is a storyline that must be monitored over the next few days.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin
Record: 153-84-1 | Job Danger: 1.5/10
After starting the season 11-0, the Steelers are just 1-3 since then. Still, they’re heading to the playoffs and remain a legitimate threat in the AFC. Mike Tomlin’s unwavering leadership has been commendable, and his construction of a dominant defensive line has been equally impressive. The Steelers have a few kinks that need to be worked out, but Tomlin is in no danger of losing his job.
San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan
Record: 31-35 | Job Danger: 3/10
It’s been a tough year for the 49ers, who have dealt with major injuries at the top of almost every position group. Their defense was weakened, the offense took several hits, and 2020 was silently dubbed a failure. None of the blame for the injuries falls on Shanahan, of course, but his losing record through four years makes his seat warm, albeit ever-so-slightly. 2021 will be critical for Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll
Record: 121-70-1 | Job Danger: 1/10
One of the most respected people in football, Carroll is under contract for a while and has cemented himself in the top tier of active head coaches. The Seahawks have played incredible football this year and are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Carroll’s seat is freezing cold; he is not going anywhere.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bruce Arians
Record: 17-14 | Job Danger: 3/10
Arians’s job was saved by the Buccaneers’ dominant performance against a Lions team that was without its main coaches due to COVID-19 protocols. While a win is a win and the Buccaneers are back in the playoffs, an abysmal showing in the first round could spark serious conversation regarding Arians’s job security. As of now, though, his job is safe.
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel
Record: 30-20 | Job Danger: 1/10
Mike Vrabel is not yet a top-tier head coach, but his job security resembles that of Reid, Belichick, Payton, and Carroll. The Titans continue to play good football and are looking like candidates to make another deep playoff run. The Titans need to shore up their defense this offseason, but the team still looks very strong. Vrabel deserves plenty of credit for Tennessee’s resounding success.
Washington Football Team: Ron Rivera
Record: 6-9 | Job Danger: 2/10
Chase Young. Dwyane Haskins. Alex Smith. Dan Snyder. “Redskins.” Dan Snyder, again. The Washington Football Team has been in the news on repeat, yet Rivera has kept a level head and been more than a strong head coach. Despite a battle with skin cancer, Rivera has been an adamant voice for change on the field, in the locker room, and in public. A candidate for Coach of the Year, Rivera has impressed in 2020 and needs just one more win in order to punch a ticket to the playoffs.
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