Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for MNF: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriotsby Mike Fanelli December 28, 2020 0 comments
To wrap up Week 16 in the NFL, we have a matchup between AFC East division rivals as the 11-3 Buffalo Bills take on the 6-8 New England Patriots. This game doesn’t have many playoff implications as the Bills have locked up the AFC East division title while the New England Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. However, that doesn’t matter to gamblers, as there is always money to be made.
The team’s fan base and fantasy football players will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention. For gamblers, their only rooting interest is whatever will lead to money in their pocket. However, which bets should they place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Zack Moss Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-112)
Over the last couple of weeks, the rookie running back has carved out a role in the Bills’ running gameplan. After averaging 7.9 rushing attempts per game over his first nine games this season, Moss has 13 rushing attempts in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled to stop the run this season, and opposing teams know it. Running backs are averaging 24 rushing attempts per game against the Patriots this season. In their Week 8 matchup, Moss had a career-high 14 rushing attempts and should have his third straight game with 13 or more tonight.
James White Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, the entire Patriots offense has changed. After changing to a run-heavy offense, White has a limited role this season. White is averaging only 8.9 rushing yards per game, rushing for under 15 yards in 58 percent of his games. Furthermore, White had a season-high 22 rushing yards in Week 1. Since then, he has rushed for more than eight yards only three times. White has the same number of games this season with zero rushing yards as games with double-digit rushing yards (five). Furthermore, White has five or fewer rushing attempts in every game this season. He had zero rushing yards in the Week 8 matchup against the Bills and likely has a similar performance in this game.
Stefon Diggs Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Diggs has been the best wide receivers in AFC this season, averaging 7.9 receptions for 93.9 receiving yards per game. He is among the league leaders in both receptions and receiving yards this season and has turned the Bills into Super Bowl contenders. Diggs has 86 or more receiving yards in 71.4 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots are giving up an average of 142.6 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Diggs has 92 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games, including against the Patriots in Week 8. Furthermore, Diggs is averaging 10.3 receptions for 123 receiving yards over his past three games. With Stephon Gilmore out tonight, Diggs should have no trouble going over 100 receiving yards in this contest.
Cam Newton Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-225)
I’ve been on this prop bet all season long. Newton has struggled to throw the ball this season, throwing five touchdowns in 13 games. Furthermore, Newton has thrown zero touchdowns in three of his last four games this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have held quarterbacks to an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this season, giving up one or fewer in just under half of their games. Newton has thrown under two touchdowns in 17 straight games, including against the Bills in Week 8. The last time Newton threw two touchdowns was in December 2018. While the payout is far from ideal, Newton is more likely to catch a touchdown tonight than throw two touchdowns.
Zack Moss Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Not only does Moss have back-to-back games with 13 rushing attempts, but he has rushed for 43 or more yards in three of his last four games. By comparison, over his first seven games this season, Moss rushed for more than 37 yards only twice. Furthermore, Moss averaged 3.8 yards per attempt in his first seven games this season compared to 5.1 over the last four. Meanwhile, the Patriots have given up an average of 113 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. Furthermore, Over the past four weeks, running backs are averaging 197 rushing yards per game against the Patriots. Moss had a career-high 81 rushing yards in their Week 8 matchup and should have no trouble getting at least 50 in the rematch.
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