NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 16by Joe Ricotta December 27, 2020 1 comment
Getting down to the nitty-gritty here as the end of the regular season rapidly approaches. And it wouldn’t be a 2020 football week without some last-minute inactive announcements. We’ll touch on some of those, but keep your eyes peeled for more late-breaking news before lineups lock at 1:00 p.m. EST. Let’s quickly go over the Cash Game article basics and then look at some options for today.
The cash game article’s goal is to outline some safe plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point is for us to make some money.
Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That should go without saying but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis. Cash Games are basically H2Hs, 50/50s, and Double-Ups. The amount of winnings might be limited, but these contests have a higher probability of hitting.
Everyone wants to know how many points a guy scored and not necessarily the route that took them there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are the NFL DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 16.
As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup.
Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK, $8,200 FD)
Say what you want about the Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation. The fact of the matter is Hurts is getting an opportunity to play and making the most of it. In two games as the starter, he’s amassed 64.1 DK points and thrown four touchdowns to zero interceptions. The Cowboys are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed and Hurts threw three of them last week, along with 338 passing yards and 63 rushing yards. Stick with the hot hand and quick legs. Hurts’ rushing ability gives him a great floor for fantasy points.
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DK, $7,200 FD)
The Bears coaching staff and front office are quickly realizing that switching from Trubisky to Nick Foles earlier in the year was the wrong move. Since being reinstalled into the starting lineup, Trubisky has played some of the best ball of his career. Since returning as the starter in four games, Mitch has a 67.91 percent completion rate, and the Bears offense has averaged 31 points per game.
Offensive play-caller Bill Lazor has been doing something Bears fans have called for since Trubisky has been in Chicago, scheming more play-action bootlegs and rollouts, which can be directly correlated with Mitch’s recent success, along with the bad defenses he’s faced and improvement on the offensive line. Guess what. The Bears will have another great matchup this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars – a team that finds themselves in the driver’s seat of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. The Jags allow the most yards per pass attempt and second-most per completion. If you want to drop down in salary and get away from Hurts, Mitch is your guy.
David Montgomery ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD) – 🔒
Monty is on an absolute tear as of late. It helps that his coach has finally decided to use him. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Montgomery carried the ball a career-high 32 times for 146 yards and two scores. Additionally, Trubisky and the Bears’ offensive line has played better, which has helped Monty burst free and show off some of his abilities. Over the course of his young two-year career, Montgomery has received 23 or more carries in only three games. He’s averaged 4.80 yards per carry in those games, 131 rushing yards, and has four touchdowns. He is also tied with Derrick Henry for second in broken tackles (24) and broken tackles per attempt (8.4). The Jags are terrible defensively. GIVE HIM THE ROCK and lock him into your lineups.
Austin Ekeler ($7,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Injuries always leave vacancies. With the Los Angeles Chargers, the running back position is set, not due to an injury. However, tight end Hunter Henry was placed on the COVID-19 list, and receiver Keenan Allen is questionable to play. Ekeler has already gotten 9.5 targets per game over the last four weeks and could be primed for an even bigger role in the passing game this week. Lately, every other game for Ekeler is a 23-plus DK points performance: 23.9 in Week 12, 10.8 in Week 13, 23.6 in Week 14, and 11.9 in Week 15. If we follow the pattern, this week should be another 23-plus point game.
Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD)
Gordon is fairly generic as far as explosivity goes. However, he’s been a steady fantasy producer over the years whenever he’s the main option. Phillip Lindsay was placed on IR, so the backfield will be spearheaded by Gordon. It’s a good matchup, too. The Chargers rank 26th in rush DVOA (0.4 percent) and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last four weeks. Normally, playing two running backs on opposite sides of the same game isn’t the best strategy, but I think we can get away with it here.
Russell Gage ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD)
In the last two games, the Atlanta Falcons have been without Julio Jones, and Gage has received a 21.4 percent target share, which is second to only Calvin Ridley, who is considerably more expensive at $8,500 on DK. He’s caught a touchdown in two of the last three games (and threw for a touchdown in one) and has no fewer than 15.1 DK points in each game. Taking the discount and playing Gage will allow you to get cheap exposure to the highest Over/Under on the main slate.
Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK, $5,800 FD) – 🔒
After suffering a concussion last week, Tyler Boyd has been ruled out for the upcoming game against the Houston Texans. With the expected increase in volume, Higgins projects extremely well. Quarterback Ryan Finley didn’t play particularly well against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, but he didn’t play terrible either. 89 passing yards isn’t anything to write home about, but the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is much better than the Houston Texans. The Texans allow the third-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers (20). Expect Higgins to be peppered with a strong possibility of finding the endzone.
Austin Hooper ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD) – 🔒
Realistically, who do the Browns have available to catch passes? Following the news of basically their entire wide receiver corps ruled out due to COVID-19 protocols, they are left extremely limited. Here’s the full list of wide receivers placed on the reserve/covid list: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, KhaDarel Hodge, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. That’s a depleted unit if I’ve ever seen one. Last week, Hooper caught five of six passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. Expect Hooper to be on the field for nearly 100 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Driving the point home, the New York Jets allow the most yards, touchdowns, and DK points to the tight end position. Lock in Hooper.
Travis Kelce ($8,500 DK, $8,800 FD)
I’m not going to elaborate much on this one. At this point in the season, if you are unaware that Kelce is a great play week in and week out, you should probably stop playing fantasy football. The only question is whether you want to pay up for him or not. Personally, I’m liking how my Cash Game lineups are coming together with Hooper. If you don’t spend down in that range, feel free to play Kelce all the way at the top.
Washington Football Team ($3,000 DK, $4,800 FD)
Pressure. This isn’t exactly a run of the mill Washington defense that we’ve seen in years past. The Football Team ranks sixth in the league in adjusted sack rate and third in overall DVOA.
Houston Texans ($2,800 DK, $4,600 FD)
Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterbacks have been sacked 3.4 times per game this season, which sits second-most in the league. The quarterback situation is awful, and the offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (8.2 percent).
Other Options: Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos
Good luck in your Cash Games, and feel free to reach out to me with any questions.