Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for MNF: Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ersby Mike Fanelli December 7, 2020 1 comment
In the second game tonight, we have a matchup between playoff hopefuls as the 8-3 Buffalo Bills head to Arizona to take on the 5-6 San Francisco 49ers. The Bills are currently in first place in the AFC East while the 49ers are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Both teams need this win as their schedule for the rest of the season only gets tougher.
The team’s fan base and fantasy football players will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention. For gamblers, their only rooting interest is whatever will lead to money in their pocket. However, which bets should they place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Nick Mullens Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110)
With Jimmy Garoppolo in and out of the lineup, Mullens has played well. In the five games Jimmy G has missed, Mullens is averaging 267 passing yards per game, throwing for 247 or more in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Bills are giving up an average of 258 passing yards per game. They have given up 245 or more passing yards in three straight games and half of his games this season. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk healthy, Mullens has the weapons to throw for 250 or more passing yards tonight.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)
This prop burned me last week, but I’m going to double down and bet it again. Allen is averaging two passing touchdowns per game, throwing at least two in all but three games this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers have given up an average of 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season, including nine over their last four games. With Stefon Diggs by his side, Allen should have his ninth game this season with two or more passing touchdowns against the 49ers.
Jordan Reed Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)
The 49ers had high hopes for Reed after George Kittle went on injured reserve, but the results have been inconsistent. In six games this season, Reed is averaging just over three receptions per game. However, in the games that Kittle has missed and Reed finished, he is averaging almost four receptions per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have struggled to slow down tight ends this season. They have given up an average of six receptions per game to the position. Don’t be surprised if Reed has a big game and hits the over on this prop before halftime.
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (+120)
Even though Diggs has only four touchdowns this season, he has been a target machine for Allen. Diggs is averaging 10 targets per game this season, seeing at least six in every game. More importantly, Diggs has six or more receptions in all but one game this season. Furthermore, Diggs has seven or more in three straight games despite facing some tough cornerback matchups. Meanwhile, the 49ers are giving up an average of 13.3 receptions per game to wide receivers over their last four games. With John Brown on injured reserve, Allen will have to lean on Diggs all the more.
Nick Mullens Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
While Mullens is racking up the passing yards as the starting quarterback, he has struggled to get the ball into the end zone. In his five starts this season, Mullen has thrown a total of four passing touchdowns and has failed to throw more than one passing touchdown in any start. Meanwhile, the Bills are holding quarterbacks to an average of 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. They have held quarterbacks to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of their last five games. Over their past two games, the Bills have held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to one passing touchdown each. If they can keep those two star quarterbacks under 1.5 passing touchdowns, Mullens has no chance of throwing two.
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