NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 13by Joe Ricotta December 6, 2020 1 comment
We’re back with another monster 11-game slate of action. Running out of opportunities to build that bankroll this season, we need to take full advantage here in Week 13. Let’s get right to it.
The cash game article’s goal is to outline some safe plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point is for us to make some money.
Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That should go without saying but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis. Cash Games are basically H2Hs, 50/50s, and Double-Ups. The amount of winnings might be limited but have a higher probability of hitting.
Everyone wants to know how many points a guy scored and not necessarily the route that took them there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are the NFL DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 13.
As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Rodgers was able to move the ball at will against a good Chicago Bears defense last week. He led the Packers to 41 points, throwing for 211 yards and four touchdowns. The yardage output was his second-lowest total of the season, but a lot of that is attributed to the Packers letting their foot off the gas after jumping out to a 27-10 halftime lead. Rodgers has been a model of consistency, passing for at least two touchdowns in every game but one this year. After seeing D.K. Metcalf torch the Philadelphia Eagles (10-for-177); they don’t scare me. Rodgers should be able to get it done at home. He’s a lock for 20-plus fantasy points.
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,400 DK, $6,900 FD)
Money Mitch is back in the saddle! Well, he’s certainly not always money, but there are reasons to be optimistic here, as he’s had success against the Detroit Lions in the past. In six career games against them, he’s 4-2 with a 14-4 TD-INT rate. His last four starts versus the Lions are even more impressive. He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes to only one interception and has finished QB1, QB9, QB7, and QB8 in those games. According to DraftKings pricing, he’s listed as QB16/17. That doesn’t add up. You might want to take a more sure thing with Rodgers, but if you’re looking for savings, Mitch is your guy.
Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)
I won’t blame you if you want to lock in one of the most productive backs of the 2020 season into your lineups. The Minnesota Vikings are favored by 10 points, so Cook has a solid projected game script. The Jacksonville Jaguars are also one of the best matchups for opposing running backs, allowing an average of 136.2 rushing yards per game. However, my only worry is that Cook has been overused recently and will have a lighter workload, especially if the Vikings get up by a decent score. We need him to smash now that his salary has come up. I’m not sure I’ll be doing it, but I won’t talk you out of it. Therefore, he makes this list.
James Robinson ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD)
Not enough positive things can be said about the rookie running back. The kid has been killing it. Robinson currently ranks third in the league with 890 rushing yards and fourth in the league with 1,170 yards from scrimmage. He’s also the only NFL player with 100 percent of his team’s carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s been the one truly consistent piece on the Jacksonville Jaguars we can rely on. Why not do it again here?
Austin Ekeler ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD)
Many people were scared of using Ekeker last week because it was his first week back from injury. Well, I’m sure it had to be pretty tilting when he proceeded to get the most single-game touches of his career. Ekeler ran the ball for only a 3.14 YPC average but caught 11 of 16 passes for 85 yards. He’s touched the ball at least 20 times in every game he has started and finished this season. This week, he gets set to take on a New England Patriots team that ranks 28th in rush DVOA. Look for him to have another big game, and maybe he finds the end zone this week.
Myles Gaskin ($5,900 DK, $5,500 FD)
The Dolphins activated Gaskin off injured reserve on Saturday, just in time to take the lion’s share of the workload against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. DeAndre Washington and Salvon Ahmed are both listed as doubtful, and Matt Breida has been put on the Covid-19 list. Before getting hurt, from Weeks 3-8, Gaskin averaged over 20 touches per game. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback, so I expect Brian Flores to lean on his running back with the team being favored by 10.5 points at home. They don’t need Tua making any big mistakes in a game they should win firmly while fighting for the playoffs. The Bengals have been better against the run recently but remain bottom-five in yards per carry allowed. Hit the gas on Gaskin.
David Montgomery ($5,500 DK, $6,200 FD)
The Lions allow the most DK points per game to opposing running backs. Monty showed plenty of burst against Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. The issue is always the number of carries and targets. Will head coach Matt Nagy use him enough? Obviously, he’s been in a workhorse role ever since Tarik Cohen went down. The problem is, the Bears are pass-happy, ranking first in the league in passing play percentage and last in the league in rushing play percentage.
If I had a dollar every time I heard an analyst or DFS guy say Montgomery sucks, I’d have enough money to 150-max enter the $20 millionaire maker on DraftKings. I truly believe that is lazy analysis. It’s easy to see that he doesn’t have quite the breakaway speed other running backs do, but any running back would struggle to put up numbers in this offense, with this play-caller, quarterback, and offensive line. On a positive note, he has scored double-digit DK points in six of his last seven games. Also, the offensive line is significantly better whenever Rashaad Coward isn’t playing. The price is right for Monty.
Davante Adams ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Finding ways to describe why Adams is a good option isn’t hard because it’s kind of a no-brainer at this point. Rodgers’ number one weapon, Adams, has a ridiculous 33 percent target share on the season. Adams averages 26.9 DK points per game and 8.86 expected points added (second to only Tyreek Hill among all wide receivers). I’m not worried about Darius Slay, he’s allowing a 72.5 percent completion rate and 104.4 passer rating this season, and he’s dealing with a calf strain.
I like both of these players at their prices. The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over their last four games. Woods has a 30.6 percent and 40 percent target share over the last two games, so I lean his direction on DK because of his cheaper salary. However, Kupp is very good against Cover 1, which the Cards use a lot of.
Brandin Cooks ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD)
The Texans will be without Will Fuller for the remainder of the season due to a positive PEDs test. Cooks might not be an unquestioned number one wide receiver, but he will be the Texans’ go-to guy this week. We don’t know how he will perform as the main option, but he’s a good bet to get double-digit targets. I’ll take that at this salary with the high projected points total this game has.
Corey Davis ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Davis’ floor has been surprisingly high this season. He’s racked up double-digit DK points in all but one game he’s played this season. Meanwhile, his team target share is less than two percent less than A.J. Brown, who is considerably more expensive at $7,600 on DraftKings. The Browns defense is a fraud. They’ve played in many bad weather conditions, which has masked some of their deficiencies against opposing passing games, yet they remain 23rd in pass DVOA (14.8 percent). Additionally, cornerback Denzel Ward will miss the game with a calf strain. Davis is a solid value this week.
Anthony Firkser ($2,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
On Friday, Jonnu Smith was ruled out because of a knee injury. Firkser was already getting a boost in volume. From Weeks 6-11, Firkser out-targeted Smith 28 to 22 and averaged more than two full yards per target. Tight end is normally where I look to save a little salary, and it worked out last week with Kyle Rudolph. Let’s target against the Cleveland Browns, who rank in the bottom-five for DK points allowed to the tight end position. Spend down here to have the flexibility to spend up elsewhere and jam in the studs.
New York Jets ($2,100 DK, $3,300 FD)
This is a presumable smash spot for Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders, but last week was supposed to be as well, against the Atlanta Falcons. I believe they will bounce back, but being without Josh Jacobs could force them to pass more than they normally like to. The Jets are a solid punt option, assuming they won’t get completely obliterated and can rack up some counting stats.
Other Options: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks
Good luck, and let’s win some bucks!