Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lionsby Mike Fanelli November 25, 2020 2 comments
Another year, another Detroit Lions game to kick off Thanksgiving. This year the 3-7 Houston Texans head to Detroit to take on the 4-6 Lions. Except for a six-year span due to World War II, the Lions have played on Thanksgiving every year since 1934. They have a 37-41-2 record on Thanksgiving but have lost their last three games on the holiday.
Usually, these Fave Five articles are all centered around the best prop bets from the primetime game. However, it’s Thanksgiving, and I’m going to give a little extra gambling advice today. I like the Lions +3, though I think the Texans will win the game. There are too many injuries surrounding the Lions’ offense, and the Texans know it’s more critical than ever to get a win to stay in the playoff race. With that out of the way, here are my five favorite prop bets for tomorrow’s game.
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Duke Johnson Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-118)
Over the last three games, Duke has stepped up as the Texans’ lead running back with David Johnson on injured reserve due to a concussion. In those three games, Duke is averaging 13.3 rushing attempts per game after totaling 18 attempts over his other five games this season. However, Duke has 14 or more rushing attempts in two of the three games he’s filled in for David Johnson. Meanwhile, the Lions are one of the worst teams stopping the run this season. They are giving up an average of 4.7 yards per attempt. The Lions are so bad at stopping the run, opposing teams are averaging 26.3 rushing attempts per game against them. Expect Duke to hit the over on this prop before the start of the fourth quarter.
Marvin Jones to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+145)
The Lions’ wide receiver core is full of injuries this week as Jones is the only healthy wide receiver on the roster. With Kenny Golladay out the last 3.5 games, Jones has stepped up as the Lions’ top weapon in the passing game. Over that span, Jones has four of his five receiving touchdowns this season. Furthermore, he is averaging 6.8 targets per game during that span compared to five per game over the first six games of the season. Meanwhile, the Texans have struggled to keep wide receivers out of the end zone this season. They have given up 14 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, including eight over their last five games. If Golladay is out again this week, Jones could easily score twice.
Deshaun Watson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-127)
Watson struggled to start the season, throwing five interceptions in his first games of the year. However, over his last five games, Watson has 11 passing touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. Furthermore, in the four games with Bill O’Brien, Watson had three interceptions compared to only two in the six games without O’Brien. Meanwhile, the Lions have only seven interceptions this season. However, three of them came against Kyler Murray. Furthermore, they have two total interceptions in their last five games. Watson has done a much better job taking care of the ball and should have no trouble picking apart a poor Lions defense without throwing a pick.
D’Andre Swift to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+115)
After a terrific performance in Week 10, Swift missed last week’s game with a concussion. At the time of writing, Swift hadn’t cleared the concussion protocol but wasn’t ruled out for the game. Assuming he plays, he is in line for a big game. Swift has scored six times this season, four times on the ground and twice in the air. However, four of those touchdowns have come over his last five games. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up 12 rushing touchdowns this season, giving up at least one in all but one game this season. Given Swift’s role both on the ground and in the passing game, he is more likely to score twice than not at all.
Brandin Cooks Over 5.5 Receptions (+118)
In the offseason, the Texans traded a second-round pick for Cooks, and early in the year, it looked like the wrong decision. Cooks averaged only 2.5 receptions per game under O’Brien. However, since O’Brien’s firing, Cooks is averaging 6.2 receptions per game and has six or more in four of those six games. More importantly, Cooks’ targets per game increased by almost 40 percent after O’Brien’s firing. Meanwhile, the Lions have been awful defending the pass. They have given up at least 17 receptions to wide receivers in four of their last six games. Furthermore, despite P.J. Walker making his first career start, the Lions gave up seven or more receptions to three different Carolina Panther wide receivers last week. Don’t be surprised if Cooks has six receptions by halftime.
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