NFL DFS: GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 11by Joe Ricotta November 22, 2020 0 comments
Let’s start by saying that any picks used or mentioned for cash games can be played in tournaments, including the “Other Options.” That’s an important thing to know and can sometimes get confusing when the two are discussed separately. For that reason, I’ve tried to avoid mentioning my cash game plays for this article.
There’s merit to using or fading individual players in tournaments, whether it be ownership expectations, bust potential, etc. As I said earlier, just about all of the cash game plays are viable for tournaments. If you’d like to see Cash Game Plays, you can check that out here. With that said, let’s get to some other picks for tournaments. Getting a mixture of popular and lower-owned players is the best way to go. Let’s go for the big bucks. Here are the favorite GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 11.
Alvin Kamara ($9,200 DK, $9,700 FD)
What are the odds Kamara gets completely overlooked as the highest-priced running back on DraftKings? Ownership projections show that it’s pretty likely. The odds that Kamara could outscore the chalkiest option on the slate, Dalvin Cook, are higher than his current ownership indicates. While the rest of the field zigs in the direction of Taysom Hill and the New Orleans Saints’ passing attack, I’ll gladly zag and get leverage on the field off of Cook in the process.
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,500 DK, $8,000 FD)
You hear it so often. “This might be the only time we can get said player at said price.” Most of the time, I’m not too fond of statements like that because not only is it the only time you can get that player at that price, but it’s the only time the rest of the field can get that player at that price. Meaning, if he’s not a good play, he’s not a good play. Don’t just plug a player into your lineups because he is cheaper than he normally is. Have better reasoning than that.
In regards to Zeke, I’ll give you a few. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier, and they may actually be figuring some things out, along with getting veteran quarterback Andy Dalton back. Dalton, most likely, isn’t going to light things up. However, if he does a decent enough job and sustains drives, Zeke could have himself a solid day against a mediocre Minnesota Vikings defense that’s being overvalued due to some recency bias against inferior opponents. Once again, this could give us leverage away from Cook, and you can pair Zeke up with the Minnesota passing attack as a lower-owned correlation move in tournaments.
Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD)
The Baltimore Ravens are expected to be without defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. Henry has slate-breaker upside and completely gashed this Ravens’ defense last year in the playoffs, rushing for 195 yards on 30 carries. Henry is also in no man’s land when it comes to pricing tier, so it will allow you to build some unique lineups compared to the rest of the field.
Adam Thielen ($6,300 DK, $7,900 FD)
Thielen ranks first in the league among all wide receivers with a 50 percent team target share of total pass attempts inside the 10-yard line. The Dallas Cowboys defense allows the fifth-most DK points per game to opposing wideouts (36.4). I expect ownership to be higher on Justin Jefferson because he is cheaper. Therefore, I’ll take a stab at Thielen. It’s also a nice way to get away from the highest-owned player on the slate, Dalvin Cook.
Denzel Mims ($3,300 DK, $5,400 FD)
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will put up points against the Jets’ porous defensive unit. Mims is a solid run back option to correlate with Herbert stacks. He’s played 96 percent of the team’s snaps in consecutive weeks and caught four of eight targets last week for 62 yards. If he scores a touchdown, you can’t beat his price.
Hunter Henry ($4,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
Henry could be a Cash Game Option if I weren’t dumpster diving. Nonetheless, he’s absolutely in play in tournaments. Last week, he scored his first touchdown since Week 5, and his usage hasn’t really changed much. The Jets are dead last in pass DVOA (33.4 percent). Henry could be a solid pivot away from the much chalkier Keenan Allen.
Austin Hooper ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD)
For the same reasons a lot of the field will be off of Duke Johnson, they will be off Hooper. He didn’t perform in his first game back from an appendectomy, and the weather probably played the biggest factor. The windy conditions turned the game on its side and basically eliminated both teams’ passing attacks en route to a 10-7 final score. Hooper played 85 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, and he should get more than the two targets he got last week.
NO vs. ATL
HOU vs. NE
BAL vs. TEN
MIN vs. DAL
WAS vs. CIN
QB – Jameis Winston ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD)
This is the ultimate dart throw because we have no clue if Winston will see any action at all. However, there’s a possibility Taysom Hill is a smokescreen or completely poops the bed, and Sean Payton makes a quarterback switch. The Falcons are terrible defensively, so Winston could put up big numbers if he is tossed in there.
WR – KJ Hamler ($3,600 DK, $5,200 FD)
Say what you want about Drew Lock, but he’s been targeting Hamler with some safer throws the last couple of weeks, and we know he has the speed to break one to the house. Hamler has 10 targets in each of the last two games and is averaging 12.5 yards per reception during that span. Lock is expected to play through bruised ribs, which limited him in practice all week. I’m guessing he won’t be waiting too long in the pocket, and he’ll look to get the ball to his slot receiver early and often. Attacking Nik Needham instead of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard would be wise.
WR – Chris Conley ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD)
Last week, Keelan Cole benefited from Laviska Shenault Jr. missing the game. However, Conley played more snaps and received one more target than him. The only difference was Cole found the end zone. Shenault will once again be out, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are big home underdogs. This could be a very under the radar low-owned smash spot for Conley.