Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titansby Mike Fanelli November 12, 2020 0 comments
Tonight we have a battle of AFC South division title contenders as the 5-3 Indianapolis Colts head down to Nashville to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The winner of this game will be in first place of the division, but not necessarily for long as these two teams will battle it out again in two weeks.
The team’s fan base and fantasy football players will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention. For gamblers, their only rooting interest is whatever will lead to money in their pocket. However, which bets should they place for tonight’s game? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game between the Colts and Titans.
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Jonnu Smith Over 2.5 Receptions (-182)
After a strong start to the season, Smith has cooled off over the last four games. During that span, he is averaging 1.5 receptions for 21 yards and has only one touchdown. However, for the season, Smith is averaging a healthy 4.6 targets per game, bringing in three per game. While those numbers don’t instill much confidence in this prop, the matchup should. The Colts have given up five or more receptions to tight ends in four of their last five games, including 15 receptions over their previous two games. Other than A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, the Titans lack a lot of proven pass catches. Look for Smith to hit the over on this prop by halftime, if not sooner.
T.Y. Hilton Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
This season has been full of disappointment for Hilton. In the offseason, many thought the addition of Philip Rivers would help Hilton bounce back from a disappointing 2019 season; instead, things haven’t changed. However, the matchup tonight offers some hope for Hilton having a good game. The Titans have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 204 receiving yards per game to the position. Furthermore, they have given up 200 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in six of their last seven games. With Hilton’s speed, all it takes is one big play downfield to cash this prop and expect Rivers to throw Hilton’s way plenty tonight.
Derrick Henry to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-162)
If you’re going to let one bad game scare you off from placing this bet, you might as well stop reading this article. Yes, Henry had a poor performance last week, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry and failing to reach the end zone. However, it was the first time since Week 2 that Henry didn’t have at least one rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, the Colts have given up three rushing touchdowns over their last three games to less talented running backs. The Titans’ offense runs through Henry, and it’s more probable he scores twice tonight than not at all. He should cash this prop for you before the start of the second half.
Zach Pascal Over 3.5 Receptions (-106)
With all the injuries at the position this season, Pascal has been the staple point for the Colts’ wide receiver unit. He is the only wide receiver to play in all eight games, averaging three receptions per game. However, over his last three games, Pascal is averaging four receptions per game. When the offense needs to pick up a first down, Pascal seems to be Rivers’ target. Meanwhile, the Titans are giving up an average of 18.4 receptions per game to wide receivers. Furthermore, they have given up 21 or more receptions to the position in four of their last five games. With the defense focused on Hilton and the running game, Pascal should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop before the start of the fourth quarter.
Ryan Tannehill Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-124)
Coming out of the Week 4 bye, Tannehill was playing some of the best football of his career, throwing for seven touchdowns in two games. However, in the next three games, he has a total of six touchdowns. The good news is Tannehill has consistently thrown two or more touchdowns this season. He has thrown two or more in all but one game this year, including in five straight. Meanwhile, when the Colts have faced a talented quarterback this season, they have struggled. Two weeks ago, they gave up three passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford, despite Kenny Golladay leaving the game early with an injury. Expect Tannehill to throw two touchdowns tonight, pushing his streak to six straight.
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