NFL DFS: GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 9by Joe Ricotta November 8, 2020 0 comments
Let’s start by saying, any picks used or mentioned for cash games can be played in tournaments, including the “Other Options.” That’s an important thing to know and can sometimes get confusing when the two are discussed separately. For that reason, I’ve tried to avoid mentioning my cash game plays for this article.
There’s merit to using or fading individual players in tournaments, whether it be ownership expectations, bust potential, etc. But, as I said earlier, just about all of the cash game plays are viable for tournaments. If you’d like to see Cash Game Plays, you can check that out here. With that said, let’s get to some other picks for tournaments. Getting a mixture of popular and lower-owned players could be the best way to go. Let’s go for the big bucks. Here are my favorite GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 9.
Kyler Murray ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD)
It seems as if no one wants to play Murray at his current price tag. That’s fine. Allow me to do the honors. The Miami Dolphins aren’t terrible defensively. However, they blitz at the fourth-highest rate (40.3 percent) while sitting tied for tenth in sacks (19). That sounds fine and dandy, but they are dead last in hurry rate (6.1 percent) and middle of the pack in pressure rate. A mobile, dynamic quarterback like Murray can take advantage of a team like this with his legs and arm. Add in the low ownership to boot, and I’ve found one of my favorite tournament targets.
James Robinson ($7,000 DK, $7,300 FD)
What more does this guy have to prove as an undrafted free agent? The Jacksonville Jaguars team Twitter account put out an awesome Mr. Robinson hype video the other day, and I gotta say, I’m thrilled to roster him in tournaments this week, especially if he’s going to be sub-10 percent owned. The Houston Texans have struggled all season to slow down opposing running backs, allowing the third-most DK points per game (32.1). In a game where Jacksonville will be starting rookie Jake Luton, expect them to lean heavily on Robinson on the ground and in the passing game with some safer throws.
Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DK, $6,200 FD)
Gibson is always capable of popping off, evidenced by his Week 4 and Week 7 performances of 20-plus DK points. The New York Giants have been susceptible to pass-catching running backs this year, allowing the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. The Washington Football team is fresh off a bye week. Gibson ran the ball 20 times for 128 yards a score in Week 7. I think his role is finally starting to increase, and he could pay massive dividends in tournaments, where he is projected to be less than six percent owned.
Both of these receivers are going vastly under-owned in comparison to their talent levels and ceilings. The Miami Dolphins have been pretty good against the pass, ranking third in the NFL in pass DVOA. However, the Arizona Cardinals have a 27.5 implied team total, the fifth-highest on the board. It lines up to be a smash spot for running back Chase Edmonds, but playing one or both of these receivers would directly leverage his massive ownership.
This is a similar situation to the Cardinals’ receivers. Dalvin Cook is extremely chalky, rightfully so. But the Vikings could wind up doing a lot of damage through the air. Detroit ranks bottom-10 in the league in adjusted sack rate (5.3 percent). If you’re going to give Kirk Cousins time to throw the ball, he can make you pay. I’ll take a shot with some single and double Vikings stacks.
ARI vs. MIA
BUF vs. SEA
MIN vs. DET
KC vs. CAR
QB – Jake Luton ($4,900 DK, $6,500 FD)
We have no clue what to expect from the rookie quarterback out of Oregon State, making his NFL debut. However, we know he’ll be facing a mediocre defense in the Houston Texans, who rank bottom five in yards per play (6.1). Deshaun Watson could be the top quarterback on the slate. But, maybe using his receivers alone, paired with Luton and a receiver of choice, will work wonders. You would have extra dollars to spend at running back, or wherever you choose, and the correlation is what we are looking for.
RB – Tony Pollard ($4,000 DK, $4,900 FD)
According to reports, Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a hamstring injury that began bothering him during the Cowboys’ game last week. America’s team is throwing Garrett Gilbert into the fire against a dominant Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense. It sounds like Zeke is leaning towards playing, but I could see the Cowboys playing it safe with him, especially if this one gets ugly early on. If that indeed is the case, Pollard becomes viable as a solid salary saver. Don’t expect him to have a huge game. The Steelers let up less than 100 rushing yards per game. The discount, and hitting value, is all we are looking for.
WR – Gabriel Davis ($3,200 DK, $4,800 FD)
While this game is drawing major traction throughout the DFS industry, no one is talking about Davis. John Brown returned last week. Diggs remains the alpha receiver. Cole Beasley always has a role in the offense as a slot receiver. However, if we look at last week and Brown’s 81 percent snap usage, Davis remained on the field for 60 percent of the snaps. On top of that, he was second to only Diggs with 59 targeted air yards. He ranks 11th in the NFL in TAY (average targeted air yards) with 14.9 and third in the league among wide receivers in average separation with a 3.8 average. By no means I am saying this is a slam dunk. If we are expecting a lot of scoring from this game, maybe Davis winds up making some big plays at very low ownership.
TE – Jordan Akins ($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD)
Akins was playing well before getting hurt in Week 4. Darren Fells stepped in and also performed sufficiently. Akins will make his return this week, and while we aren’t sure how the snaps and routes will be divvied up, Akins is in a good spot to produce if he indeed is used as the number one tight end he was before getting hurt. The Jaguars have yielded the second-most touchdowns to the tight end position this season.
Follow Joey Ricotta on Twitter @theriot326
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