NFL DFS: GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 8by Joe Ricotta November 1, 2020 0 comments
Let’s start by saying, any picks used or mentioned for cash games can be played in tournaments, including the “Other Options.” That’s an important thing to know and can sometimes get confusing when the two are discussed separately. For that reason, I’ve tried to avoid mentioning my cash game plays for this article.
There’s merit to using or fading individual players in tournaments, whether it be ownership expectations, bust potential, etc. But, as I said earlier, just about all of the cash game plays are viable for tournaments. If you’d like to see Cash Game Plays, you can check that out here. With that said, let’s get to some other picks for tournaments. Getting a mixture of popular and lower-owned players could be the best way to go. Let’s go for the big bucks. Here are my favorite GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 8.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD)
He’s not projected to be super low-owned because most fantasy players know how pitiful the New York Jets team is. However, he might still be lower-owned relative to his expected fantasy output. Many people expect this one to be a blowout with Mahomes and the Chiefs taking their foot off the gas later in the game. But would it surprise anyone if he threw four touchdown passes in the first half to put them in that position?
Dalvin Cook ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD)
The Minnesota Vikings would have no reason to play Cook, given his often-talked about injury history, if he weren’t healthy. Coming off a bye week, I expect him to be a full go. Cook is in a smash spot. The game has a high Vegas total, and he hasn’t disappointed in games he’s finished yet this year. The Packers rank 22nd in DVOA against the run. With a ton of ownership heading Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry‘s direction, Cook is an obvious top-dollar pivot.
John Brown ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD)
Returning from injury, Brown may go unnoticed, as he’s been forgotten about, especially with the amount of success Stefon Diggs has had in his absence. Stephon Gilmore has been ruled out, which could lead to more ownership heading Diggs’ direction. While that’s not a terrible idea, I think Brown could be the sneakier option. The New England Patriots line up in man coverage 60 percent of the time, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Gilmore was likely to guard Diggs most of the time, and J.C. Jackson was probably to be guarding Brown. Now Jackson slides over to Diggs, and Brown will be lined up against a second-string corner. Give me a hungry to return Brown. The weather could somewhat impact the passing game, but Allen has the arm strength to burn through difficult wind conditions.
Jimmy Graham ($4,600 DK, $5,400 FD)
In a week such as this, there are many tight ends to choose from. Graham is going to go overlooked. Stud wide receiver Robinson cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play. Had he been out, I would’ve liked Graham more. However, it’s not enough of a factor for me to completely fade him. The game is expected to be played in cold temperatures with high winds. Nick Foles has been inaccurate on deep balls so far this season, missing rookie Darnell Mooney on multiple occasions open downfield. A cold, windy day isn’t going to help with accuracy issues.
The safe bet would be targeting his tight end on short-to-intermediate routes. Graham is also a huge red zone option, and he’s going up against his former team, so there’s a little bit of a narrative here. The Saints rank 26th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.7) and 31st (second-worst) in quarterback rating (111.6). This unit has also allowed six touchdowns and the most DK points per game (19.5) to the tight end position. Graham might be a tad overpriced, considering some of the options below him in salary, but this is a spot where he has multiple touchdown upside.
SEA vs. SF
63, 65, 69, 54, 53, 71. Those are the total points scored in each of the Seattle Seahawks’ games this season. That’s good enough for an average number of 62.5 points per game. Add in the fact that this is one of the few games this week with decent weather, and it’s an obvious spot to target. Is it too obvious? I don’t think so, because people tend to overthink things.
Seattle’s secondary has been atrocious, and Russell Wilson can put up points against any team. We could see a lot of back and forth here, similar to last week’s Sunday Night Football game between the Seahawks and Cardinals. Wilson to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the main options. Secondary options include Greg Olsen and David Moore. Monitor the running back situation for injury news on Chris Carson and Homer. If both of them are out, Dallas is squarely in play. Even if Carson plays, I still like Dallas. If Carson is out and Homer is in, this is a full avoid for me. For the 49ers, I’ll be trying to avoid their merry-go-round backfield. Look at stacking Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne.
GB vs. MIN
The Green Bay Packers are fresh off a dominating offensive performance against the Houston Texans, in which they put up 35 points, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns. The Minnesota Vikings secondary is banged up, and Rodgers already burned them Week 1 for 364 yards and four scores. The problem is, a lot of his damage involves Davante Adams, and both he and Adams are expensive. That makes them almost entirely out of play for Cash Games, but it’s a strong way to get different in tournaments. I don’t mind double-stacking Rodgers with Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Robert Tonyan.
On the flip side, Kirk Cousins can send even the thickest skinned fantasy players into a frenzy. Some weeks, he looks excellent. And others, he’s not even a blip on the radar. Unsure of which Cousins we’ll get this week, he and his receivers are strictly tournament options with high upside. Adam Thielen should see Jaire Alexander quite a bit. Thielen was able to catch six passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Packers. The rookie, emerging star Justin Jefferson might have a great matchup against Josh Jackson, allowing a 113.3 QB rating against and has a 29.4 percent missed tackle percentage. Of course, don’t forget about Cook and Jamaal Williams in this game as well.
Other Options: DET vs. IND, KC vs. NYJ
RB – La’Mical Perine ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD)
Risky business here. Perine definitely falls into the Dart Throw category. The Kansas City Chiefs are massive 20 point favorites and really shouldn’t have any problems putting away the hapless New York Jets. However, if the Jets want even a glimmer of hope, they will have to run the football and slow down the clock. One thing is for certain. They do not want to get into a track meet with Patrick Mahomes and company. Perine has been getting more involved recently, upping his snaps from zero percent in Week 5 with Le’Veon Bell to 58 percent in Week 6 and 70 percent in Week 7. The Chiefs are also among the worst in rush DVOA (31st).
WR – Deonte Harris ($3,300 DK, $4,700 FD)
The Chicago Bears defense is solid as a whole, and their strength is the secondary, ranking third in pass DVOA. However, the Saints have limited receivers available for Drew Brees to throw the ball to, with Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marquez Callaway out of action for this one. If he somehow breaks one or winds up in the end zone like he did last week, he’ll smash his price tag, and you’ll get him at low ownership.
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