Cheaper By The Dozen: NFL Week 7 DFS Value Playsby Euan Leith October 22, 2020 0 comments
Each week, this article will shine the spotlight on players outside the top 12 at their respective positions on DraftKings and FanDuel to help you win your contests in daily fantasy. This advice should help you avoid having a lineup of players on much of the competition’s rosters, giving you a chance to win big each week.
Week 6 had its ups and downs with recommendations. To hit in tournament plays, it’s ideal if the player returns at least three times the number of points as compared to his salary. Let’s see how it went:
Joe Burrow vs IND; 319 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD; 17.72 DK points
Ronald Jones vs GB; 113 yards, 2 TD, 2 catches; 26.1 DK points
Chase Claypool vs CLE; 1 rushing TD, 4 catches, 74 yards; 18.1 DK points
David Montgomery vs CAR; 58 rushing yards, 4 catches, 39 receiving yards, 13.7 DK points
Laviska Shenault vs DET; 1 rushing yard, 3 catches, 10 yards, 4.1 DK points
Eric Ebron vs CLE; 4 targets, 2 catches, 9 yards; 2.9 DK points
Some good and some bad for sure. Ebron has made his final appearance in this column after two dud performances. However, it was nice to see Jones and Claypool continue their recent form.
Covid-19 is going to throw some wrenches into the daily fantasy machine this year. Make sure always to check your lineups before they lock, and feel free to reach out on Twitter with questions. Good luck in Week 7.
Gardner Minshew II, JAX vs LAC ($5,900 DK | $7,200 FD)
With Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes back on the main slate, Minshew costs $500 less than he did in Week 6 on DraftKings. However, the Los Angeles Chargers has a bottom-five defense against quarterbacks this season, providing the second-year signal-caller with a tremendous bounce-back opportunity. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a high-volume passing offense that will mesh well with this version of the Chargers secondary.
The Bolts allowed three of the last four quarterbacks they faced to throw for over 300 yards and score multiple touchdowns. The common trend amongst those signal-callers is they all threw the ball at least 40 times. That’s excellent news for Minshew and the Jags because he has attempted at least 40 passes in five straight games. The Chargers have also given up three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the year and 24.6 yards per game, so managers shouldn’t be surprised if Minshew runs into the endzone like he did last week versus the Detroit Lions.
David Johnson, HOU vs GB ($5,300 DK | $6,300 FD)
Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and the Houston Texans should provide DFS players with a boatload of fantasy points. The Texans are the worst fantasy defense versus running backs, and the Packers are the second-worst. The lack of run defense was on full display last week. Derrick Henry torched the Texans for 224 yards and two touchdowns while Ronald Jones ran the Packers off the plank with 113 yards and two scores of his own. Aaron Jones is too highly-priced on both sites to make this article, but Johnson is an easy pivot if you want to exploit either of these run defenses.
Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley III, and Jones all had at least 13 touches versus the Packers and scored multiple touchdowns. Johnson is averaging 16.5 touches with his new team and has at least 13 touches in every game. Last week was his second-best game of the year on both sites and saw 56 snaps compared to the 19 of Duke Johnson. The value is better on DraftKings this week for DJ, but he is an easy low-rostered play on either site in tournament formats.
Justin Jackson, LAC vs JAX ($4,900 DK | $6,100 FD)
Jackson seems to be gaining more steam heading into his Week 7 matchup as the back to play in Los Angeles. The third-year-pro is coming off an impressive performance in Week 5 versus the New Orleans Saints. Jackson carried the ball 15 times for 71 yards and caught five of his six targets for another 23 yards. Meanwhile, his teammate Joshua Kelley turned his 11 carries into 29 yards and caught his only target for nine yards. Jackson’s versatility to the Chargers offense gives him an inside track to becoming the next backup to shine this season in fantasy football.
Jackson also has the fortune of playing the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7. The Jags have allowed nine touchdowns to running backs in six games. They are also allowing 7.2 targets per game to the position, and six different backs have caught at least three passes when the Jags are on the opposite side of the field. Jackson is cheaper than Kelley, more versatile than Kelley, and will get his fair share of work. Start him in lineups this week and watch him run wild on the Jaguars.
Mike Williams, LAC vs JAX ($4,700 DK | $5,900 FD)
“Anytime you see Mike Williams on the sideline, with one-on-one coverage, I know that I am going to go to him.” – Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback
Fantasy managers should be buying Williams stock in Week 7 versus the Jaguars. After a bye in Week 6, Williams and Herbert return to the field looking to build off a productive game versus the Saints. Williams caught five of his eight targets from his rookie quarterback for 109 yards and two touchdowns. A repeat performance is in the cards versus a porous Jaguars secondary.
Seven wide receivers have at least 70 yards or a touchdown versus the Jags this season. They are also allowing a league-worst 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Jags defense lines up tremendously for Williams’ skill set. The 26-year-old is third among wide receivers with 17.6 percent of his team’s air yards and ranks 10th with 17.4 yards per catch this season. A terrible deep-ball defense versus a fantastic deep-ball receiver is a fantasy gold mine. Smash Williams into your lineup and wait for the couple of huge plays to win some money in your contests this week.
Tee Higgins, CIN vs CLE ($5,300 DK | $5,700 FD)
After a couple of quiet weeks to begin his NFL career, Higgins is shooting up the pecking order in Cincinnati. Since Week 3, the rookie wideout is second on the team in snaps and has seen at least seven targets in every game. In this four-game stretch, Higgins has seen 32 targets and converted them into 19 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns. The 59 percent catch rate leaves something to be desired, but when that improves, he will go from a fringe play to a must-start option at wide receiver. The former-Clemson star hasn’t dipped below 10.2 DraftKings points in any of the four games either.
Higgins had the talent, there is no denying that, but his matchup this week is superb. The Cleveland Browns come in as the fourth-worst defense versus wide receivers on the season. They have allowed 12 receivers to catch at least four passes in a game this year and allowing 30.5 points per week to the position in FanDuel scoring. Higgins produced three catches for 35 yards against them in a Week 2 contest, but his role has grown since that Thursday night shootout. Expect the 21-year-old to be much more involved and have a massive day versus a division, and in-state, rival.
Anthony Firkser, TEN vs PIT ($3,000 DK | $5,000 FD)
Jonnu Smith‘s injury is one to watch heading into the weekend. If he misses time, Firkser becomes a great play on DraftKings because of his minimum price tag. However, he is already priced at $5,000 on FanDuel and is a big fade candidate on that site.
The tight end is a big part of the Tennessee Titans offense. Smith caught at least four balls in every game before his injury last week. Still, Firkser picked up where Smith left off and caught eight of nine targets for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. Firkser’s opponent this weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers, is a top-10 defense versus tight ends overall. Still, it’s not an incredibly scary matchup. The Steelers are giving up the seventh-most targets to tight ends this season and just lost star linebacker Devin Bush for the year. Noah Fant and Austin Hooper both caught four passes for over 50 yards versus this defense, and both Denver and Cleveland have more pass-catching options than the Titans. Without Smith on the field, Firkser will be a great play this weekend.
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