NFL DFS: GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 6by Joe Ricotta October 18, 2020 0 comments
For those of you playing on FanDuel, hopefully, today goes off without a hitch. Late-game swapping is important, and of course, it’s no fun not being able to track your scores. What a disaster the whole mess was. Anyway, let’s get back to business. On tap, we have a solid 11-game slate, albeit with only two afternoon games (come on, NFL, do better). If you’re reading this, you don’t have much time to set your lineups, so let’s get right to the article’s goal and the picks.
Let’s start by saying, any picks used or mentioned for cash games can be played in tournaments, including the “Other Options.” That’s an important thing to know and can sometimes get confusing when the two are discussed separately. For that reason, I’ve tried to avoid mentioning my cash game plays for this article.
There’s merit to using or fading individual players in tournaments, whether it be ownership expectations, bust potential, etc. But, as I said earlier, just about all of the cash game plays are viable for tournaments. If you’d like to see Cash Game Plays, you can check that out here. With that said, let’s get to some other picks for tournaments. Getting a mixture of popular and lower-owned players could be the best way to go. Let’s go for the big bucks. Here are my favorite GPP Plays, Game Stacks, and Dart Throws for Week 6.
Matt Ryan ($6,600 DK, $7,400 FD)
Due to a bad stretch of games from Ryan, many people are hopping off the wagon. I think that’s a mistake. He’s still third in the league in pass attempts per game (40.80). Now, he gets Julio Jones back from injury, and that should open things up for him and the rest of the offense. With Julio the first two weeks of the season, Ryan threw for a combined 723 passing yards with six touchdowns to only one interception. The Falcons still have a terrible defense, which will force them to keep their foot on the pedal in a game where they are +4 road underdogs. Although the Minnesota Vikings neutralized Russell Wilson and gang for the first 30 minutes of Sunday Night’s game, they’ve looked rough in stretches against tough passing attacks.
Gardner Minshew ($6,400 DK, $7,200 FD)
A lot of this game’s attention has been brought to the Detroit Lions’ side. Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay are the flavors of the week. However, Minshew has been quietly producing from a fantasy standpoint. Four out of five weeks, he’s put up 20 or more points DK points with two or more passing touchdowns. He also ranks fourth in the league in pass attempts per game (39.20). If we expect the Lions to have a good offensive showing, we might also look to target the other side of a potential shootout.
Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD)
As a tough matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts, who rank fourth in DVOA against the run, what can be looked at as a tough matchup is driving down ownership on a running back, getting over 30 touches per game over the last two weeks. Last week, if you are worried about the game script, the Cincinnati Bengals lost 27 to 3, and Mixon still got 15.4 DK points. I’m a little concerned with the matchup, but the Colts aren’t a team that generally pulls away from opponents.
The most likely scenario is the Colts will win, but I don’t believe it will be by a big margin. Are you starting him in your season-long leagues? Yes. Matchup aside, I don’t understand why Mixon is going rather unnoticed. The way head coach Zac Taylor has been using him the past couple of weeks. He’s an easy target for me in tournaments and one of my favorite under-owned options on the entire slate.
James Robinson ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)
This is starting to become a theme. The fantasy community has jumped all over Robinson in dynasty and season-long leagues. However, the DFS community continues to let him slide by lesser-owned than he should be weekly. I don’t think the sharp minds in this industry are unaware of what he’s been doing, but maybe, it’s more of a situation where they fall in love with some other options they like week in and week out. Regardless, he’s in a smash spot this week against the Detroit Lions, who rank second-worst in DVOA against the run (14.1 percent). Robinson’s also averaging 5.25 targets per game over the last four weeks.
Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD)
Marvin’s teammate, Kenny Golladay, is projected to receive a lot of ownership. Jones is solid leverage off of him at a fraction of the cost. He’s yet to have one of his big blow-up games like last year’s Week 7 matchup against the Vikings, where he caught four touchdowns. However, he’s playing 90.2 percent of the offensive snaps. With Golladay’s return to action, forcing the defense to account for him, it’s only a matter of time before Jones strikes.
Justin Jefferson ($6,000 DK, $5,900 FD)
After two straight weeks of over 100 yards receiving, Jefferson posted a dud last week with only 23 yards receiving and 5.3 DK points. Adam Thielen will be one of the highest-owned players this week, but this is just as good of a matchup for Jefferson as it is for Thielen.
MIN vs. ATL
As of writing this, Minnesota has the highest projected team total on the entire slate at 29 points. A massive amount of ownership is on two players, Thielen and Alexander Mattison. They are both solid options, but getting different with someone like Jefferson or Irv Smith Jr. could be very beneficial. On the Falcons’ side, they aren’t getting a ton of ownership, and they’ll need to score points and gain yards in big chunks if this game goes as projected to for the Vikings. Ryan hasn’t looked great to start the year. However, he gets Julio Jones back this week, which could open things up a bit. I’ll be stacking Ryan with Julio, Calvin Ridley, and a small dose of Russell Gage.
JAX vs. DET
Two bad defensive units are set to square off. That could mean a high-scoring affair or a sloppy game. Either way, I’ll have parts of both sides. Getting combos of Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and a player named later (scroll down) will be my strategy. For the Jags, we aren’t sure if DJ Chark will be in the lineup or not. If he is, stacking him with Minshew is an option. I also like Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, and a sprinkle of Chris Conley. Don’t forget about James Robinson as well. His passing game inclusion makes him relevant in team stacks.
TB vs. GB
The highest projected team total belongs to the Vikings, but the highest game total is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers matchup. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out and has re-established himself as a top-three quarterback in the game. The Bucs have a solid defensive unit but have yet to play an offense with the Packers’ firepower. I don’t understand how this isn’t one of the most-targeted games by the DFS public. Give me Rodgers to a returning Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, and Jones.
Not all in the same lineup, but get exposure to all of them if you are stacking it. How many times did you laugh at, share, or like a meme of Brady holding up four fingers after last week’s Thursday Night Football game against the Chicago Bears? I’m guessing Brady and the Bucs will use that as fuel, and he certainly doesn’t need any extra motivation to play at a high level, even at this stage of his career. Pair him up with returning wideout Godwin and Mike Evans. Ronald Jones could be a solid play in lineups without Brady. The Packers allow 36.3 DK points per game to opposing running backs (second-most), and Rojo is coming off of back-to-back 100-plus rushing yard performances.
Other Stacks: PIT vs. CLE, TEN vs. HOU
RB – La’Mical Perine ($4,000 DK, $4,600 FD)
Perine might be the least projectable player on the slate. We have no idea how Adam Gase will deploy this backfield after the Jets released Le’Veon Bell this week. However, if he’s smart (very debatable and actually unlikely at this point), he will want to get a look at the rookie. Frank Gore still exists, so we could always see a full-on committee approach or touchdown vulture situation. No disrespect to the future Hall of Famer, but I’d much rather take a stab at a young running back that might have more upside than a 37-year-old dinosaur on the last leg of his career.
WR – Darnell Mooney ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD)
I’m not even sure this is a Dart Throw at this point. Mooney may have overtaken Anthony Miller as the Chicago Bears’ number two wideout. And while his price doesn’t reflect it, his play has. The rookie out of Tulane has displayed crisp, quick cuts in his route running and is a real downfield threat with speed. Nick Foles has had opportunities to connect with him for huge plays but has missed with bad throws. Maybe one or two of those connect this week.
TE – Cameron Brate ($3,500 DK, $4,800 FD)
With O.J. Howard on IR, Brate is relevant again. Last week, he caught five of Brady’s six passes to him for 44 yards. He’s very under-the-radar. If anyone will roster a Tampa Bay tight end, it’s most likely, going to be Rob Gronkowski. Last week, Gronk received two red-zone targets to Brate’s one. A touchdown isn’t out of the question here.
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